Paris-Nice '12: Stage 1 Dampierre-en-Yvelines - Saint-Rémy-lès-Chevreuse (ITT), 9,4 k

[LaFlorecita]

Nick Nuyens in the hospital after a crash.

 

[cineteq]

Valverde is a non-factor at this point, IMO. He can't TT (yet?) and the uphill TT is not one for climbers.

Hmmm..an uphill TT is not for climbers...time bonuses don't count for you either?

 

[Andy99]

Nick Nuyens in the hospital after a crash.

Bad news. Must have missed that. Just a precaution or is it bad?

 

[cineteq]

Nick Nuyens in the hospital after a crash.

How bad is this?

 

[LaFlorecita]

Bad news. Must have missed that. Just a precaution or is it bad?

How bad is this?

I read something about a head injury on twitter. He also DNF, people where first making fun of him finishing outside of the time limit.

Edit: Here's a press release.

 

[Froome19]

shocking revelation.

Having a strong team is of course an advantage, but it wont change the fact that valverde is better on puncy finishes lol, or that wiggo isn't the best climber here.

fyi most good teams are totally behind their leaders.

Yeh but it will sure help, and anyway Sky are i think the team which are most prepared to chase down anything.
First of all their squad is stronger than any of the other teams besides Omega pharma, in this race, and this season they have been demonstrating themselves as being prepared to do a HTC more than any other teams so logically they would be the best team in controlling the peloton and also while some teams may decide to play the porte card as well, Sky will surely totally be behind Wiggins as they were behind Porte in Algarve (sacrificing Wiggins, froome etc) and Wiggins in Vuelta (trying to sacrifice froome).

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Hmmm..an uphill TT is not for climbers...time bonuses don't count for you either?

Not this one as most of it is false flat. Valverde will lose lots of time to guys like Wiggins and Leipheimer.

 

[Andy99]

I read something about a head injury on twitter. He also DNF, people where first making fun of him finishing outside of the time limit.

Edit: Here's a press release.

Cheers. Sounds like just a precaution then.

 

[cineteq]

Not this one as most of it is false flat. Valverde will lose lots of time to guys like Wiggins and Leipheimer.

Intermediate time @ 1.8Km

1. DE GENDT Thomas 103 VACANSOLEIL-DCM 00:02:58
4. VALVERDE Alejandro 31 MOVISTAR TEAM 00:00:03
14. WIGGINS Bradley 21 SKY PROCYCLING 00:00:05
20. LEIPHEIMER Levi 6 OMEGA PHARMA-QUICK STEP 00:00:06

Valverde, satisfecho: “Las diferencias de hoy no serán decisivas”

"Está claro que todo el tiempo que pierdas hay que recuperarlo, pero con las etapas que quedan y las bonificaciones, creo que las de hoy no serán diferencias decisivas. En la cima de la cota he sido de los mejores y eso me ratifica en que estoy bien. Lo importante es que hemos salvado el día”.

http://www.biciciclismo.com/cas/site/noticias-ficha.asp?id=48357

 

[mewmewmew13]

I think the hill is too much for Phinney. Valverde never peaks for a prologue. Martin doesnt have top form ... So probably wiggins

What an excellent prediction!

 

[Nilsson]

It is generally believed that you always suffer huge perfomance decrease in TTing after return from suspension, so I won't write off Valverde just now.

In Andalucia (Ruta del Sol) Valverde didn't do a good TT as well, but was untouchable in the MTF. Better not writing him off, indeed...

 

[Froome19]

There seems to be some idea that Valverde is in super 'Valv.Piti' style form, but he's just lost 30s in a 9km TT, which suggests that he probably isn't.

He also lost a lot of time in the andalucia prologue yet was the best climber there.

Just because the team came into the race prepared to defend yellow doesn't mean that Montée Laurent Jalabert suddenly suits Wiggins more. Pray point me to where Wiggins has shown that he can stay with the best and defend that kind of lead on short, sharp punchy climbs?

Even in the 2011 Vuelta, probably the best form Wiggins we've seen, he lost 20" into Valdepeñas de Jaén, and 25" into San Lorenzo de El Escorial. Mende is longer than either of those; if he loses that kind of time to a guy like Valverde, with time bonuses available, then it could be hard to defend, and instead be a matter of a showdown on the Col d'Èze.
.

I never said that it does suit Wiggins more, just that with his team behind him he is better equiped to defend the lead as you seemed sceptical as to whether sky could handle controlling the likes of Valverde and Cunego.

Also from what I have heard (though granted Wiggins is generally poor on steepish sharp finished) it seems like Wiggins has improved even from his level in 2011 so he may be able to pull something out of the bag on the steep finishes. Also in the Vuelta on those finishes I don't know how much he was truly trying then as you have to remember that he only was racing the vuelta originally as preparation for the Worlds TT and those stages were at the begining of the race before he had good position GC wise.
Also if you take into account the time Valverde/cunego lost in this stage and Wiggins conditions and how the col d'eze stage should probably suit wiggins more, it would seem like they would need a lot of time going into that stage.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Intermediate time @ 1.8Km

1. DE GENDT Thomas 103 VACANSOLEIL-DCM 00:02:58
4. VALVERDE Alejandro 31 MOVISTAR TEAM 00:00:03
14. WIGGINS Bradley 21 SKY PROCYCLING 00:00:05
20. LEIPHEIMER Levi 6 OMEGA PHARMA-QUICK STEP 00:00:06

Valverde, satisfecho: “Las diferencias de hoy no serán decisivas”


http://www.biciciclismo.com/cas/site/noticias-ficha.asp?id=48357

Yes, I'm sure he's on form, but that split time says nothing about his time trialing. So he flew up that 1km hill. And?

 

[cineteq]

Yes, I'm sure he's on form, but that split time says nothing about his time trialing. So he flew up that 1km hill. And?

And...I will *see* you next Sunday when Alejandro will be the 2012 Paris-Nice champion

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Also from what I have heard (though granted Wiggins is generally poor on steepish sharp finished) it seems like Wiggins has improved even from his level in 2011 so he may be able to pull something out of the bag on the steep finishes. Also in the Vuelta on those finishes I don't know how much he was truly trying then as you have to remember that he only was racing the vuelta originally as preparation for the Worlds TT and those stages were at the begining of the race before he had good position GC wise.
Also if you take into account the time Valverde/cunego lost in this stage and Wiggins conditions and how the col d'eze stage should probably suit wiggins more, it would seem like they would need a lot of time going into that stage.

Cunego's already probably a non-factor. Valverde is close enough that he can be dangerous, even if Wiggins may ultimately overcome his challenge. In what way does it "seem like Wiggins has improved even from his level in 2011"? I think we haven't seen enough to be able to judge on that basis yet, since all he's done climbing-wise is lead out Porte on Malhão. Very good, but not necessarily will it follow that he is in the position to respond to the people like Valverde if they kick on ahead; the roles are different. That's why I didn't take into account the 40" lost on Malhão when assessing Wiggins in steep uphill finishes. It's worth noting that the 31" he lost on this finish in the 2010 Tour were to Joaquím Rodríguez, and Wiggins is undoubtedly a better rider than he was in July 2010, when Sky were still making those first-year mistakes and Wiggins was struggling to assert himself as an out-and-out leader. So he could stay in contact better than he did that day, perhaps; on the other hand, there were no time bonuses available that day; if Valverde can get 10-15 seconds and the win bonus, it's game on on the Col de Vence the following day.

Sadly, I think that the climb is too far from the finish for any real fireworks, so it will probably be a reduced bunch finish that day - but depending on if a break goes, Valverde could well be one of the best sprinters left and take a bit more time.

As for Valverde in mountain time trials, it's perhaps worth noting:
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=8660

Lots of false flat there.

http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=5053
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=6956

This one is flat for the first half, then similar to the kind of climbing we'll get next weekend for the second.

Yes, I expect this to suit Wiggins more than Valverde. But I do think we're selling Valverde short a bit in the uphill false flat stakes here.

 

[Samson]

Taaramäe wrote in his blog:

Our team tactics were surperb. Many TT specialists like Martin and Wiggins made a mistake by starting late. Our team's forecast predict that it will rain later on so I swapped my position with Tristan Valentin and in the end it was the right decision. I really don't understand how big teams made such mistake.

 

[El Pistolero]

Quick Step didn't make a mistake though. They put 2 favorites early and one favorite late.

 

[ultimobici]

Lol. It's not just about looks he's a total jerk as well.

Have you met him? If not you are in no position to make an informed judgement.

 

[cineteq]

Yes, I expect this to suit Wiggins more than Valverde. But I do think we're selling Valverde short a bit in the uphill false flat stakes here.

I don't understand you guys inflating Wiggins chances, the only challenge for Valverde will be Leipheimer. Both of them have had an excellent start of the season thus far. Wiggins just started riding, by the time he gets to the final TT he will be at least 1 minute down in GC.

 

[Froome19]

Have you met him? If not you are in no position to make an informed judgement.

+1
If you apply that logic though then 9 out of 10 posters are guilty due to their put downs of Schleck.

 

[Froome19]

I don't understand you guys inflating Wiggins chances, the only challenge for Valverde will be Leipheimer. Both of them have had an excellent start of the season thus far. Wiggins just started riding, by the time he gets to the final TT he will be at least 1 minute down in GC.

Leipheimer has ridden one race where he won the TT (in january) and did well on mountain stages whilst Wiggins has ridden a TT (in February) where he won,his only real target and could have come top 5 in mountain stage if he wasnt working for Porte. Now he was the strongest in this TT, i don't see how you can say Leipheimer is in better form.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Have you met him? If not you are in no position to make an informed judgement.

I haven't, but I have read his interviews.

 

[LaFlorecita]

+1
If you apply that logic though then 9 out of 10 posters are guilty to their put downs of Schleck.

Lol exactly ultimobici are you going to reply that to everyone that hates? Or only to the people that hate the ones you like?

 

[Froome19]

I haven't, but I have read his interviews.

Have'nt you heard the expression "never trust the media"

 

[DominicDecoco]

Have you met him? If not you are in no position to make an informed judgement.

I've never met Voeckler either but I know he's a bit of a t*at anyway.

Even the staff around Wiggins says he can be a trouble. It's not really a secret is it?