Paris-Nice 2017, 5th-12th March

[rhubroma]

Re:

Alaphilippe could hang on, but I rate Henao as the prime favorite now. Zakarin is serious contender too, along with Contador of course. I expect ITT to clear things up a bit. Someone is going to be affected by this two hard days.

I'd put money on it.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Alaphillipe may well do well, but he has very little record of finishing multi climb mtf stage like this with top level climbers. Once more, the final climb here is 16 km long. That's just not the same as beating a much much weaker climbing field on Mt Baldy (again Sagan came 6th on that stage). His best climbing performance I can recall was on Meribel at the Dauphine where he limited his losses after doing well to arrive at the bottom with a high level group that then spent most of the climb looking at each other.

As I've said, it wouldn't be shocking at all if he performs well on the queen stage here, but you have to scour his career so far to find a few days that sort of suggest that he might have that level. Yet people here are treating him as if it's obvious that he should be seen as a bigger favourite than riders who have shown actually elite climbing level many times because he has a few seconds on them. He's not racing Sagan up Couillole.

Then again with the weather so far it could be a total lottery when it comes to rider's healthiness by stage 7 and we might get very strange results.

 

[DFA123]

Alaphilippe and Heano joint favourites with the bookies right now - seems about right. Zakarin rated next, presumably because he could potentially take back a chunk of time on the TT.

Looks good for the first two though, with potential bonus seconds on offer to them as well on half the remaining stages.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

Alaphilippe and Heano joint favourites with the bookies right now - seems about right. Zakarin rated next, presumably because he could potentially take back a chunk of time on the TT.

Looks good for the first two though, with potential bonus seconds on offer to them as well on half the remaining stages.

I saw it, a little surprising to me that bet365 rate the chances of Henao and Alaphilippe equally. I'd expected Henao to be the favourite. Contador rated 4h, just behind the great russian which is understandable at this point - something tells me Zakarin will win the MTF.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Today was really the reason I never see Porte winning a GT. He has the climbing ability and time trial ability. But he is really too susceptibale to the off-day. Either in bad weather or just not having the legs suddenly.

 

[Alexandre B.]

Re:

Alaphillipe may well do well, but he has very little record of finishing multi climb mtf stage like this with top level climbers. Once more, the final climb here is 16 km long. That's just not the same as beating a much much weaker climbing field on Mt Baldy (again Sagan came 6th on that stage). His best climbing performance I can recall was on Meribel at the Dauphine where he limited his losses after doing well to arrive at the bottom with a high level group that then spent most of the climb looking at each other.

As I've said, it wouldn't be shocking at all if he performs well on the queen stage here, but you have to scour his career so far to find a few days that sort of suggest that he might have that level. Yet people here are treating him as if it's obvious that he should be seen as a bigger favourite than riders who have shown actually elite climbing level many times because he has a few seconds on them. He's not racing Sagan up Couillole.

Then again with the weather so far it could be a total lottery when it comes to rider's healthiness by stage 7 and we might get very strange results.

Can Vista Chinesa count?

 

[Forever The Best]

Noone beats Henao in Fayence.

I hope.

But seriously, Henao is much more explosive than Contador, Fayence is good for him. Zakarin is a threat on Couillole, though.

Contador is a very explosive rider as well. If he is on 2014 form I wouldn't be surprised to see him to beat Henao. In 2014 he destroyed Valverde on this stage:
http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=25874
This was the last climb that day:

And he also came 3rd at Fleche in 2010, almost winning it but fading in the last meters because of mistiming his attack.
But Henao and Alaphilippe are the favourites for Fayence followed by Contador, D.Martin, Zakarin and co.

 

[Gloin22]

Difference is Cotnador is grandpa now, pulling any results from past is meaningless as hes just not as good in any department

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

Difference is Cotnador is grandpa now, pulling any results from past is meaningless as hes just not as good in any department

:lol:

 

[Red Rick]

Seems to me that Contador has lost a bit of punch though.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Fayence is Mur de Huy-territory, the climb you are referring to is a pretty different effort. Its in Contador's favour that the stage is relatively hard though. Also, thats from 2014 - expecting similar results would most likely leave you disappointed.

 

[spiritualride]

Wow this race has been brutal. I've never seen two flat stages in a row take such a toll without crashes. Great racing. Insane sprint at the end by someone I have never heard of. I'm a newbie who has been watching cycling on and off for 15 years.

I wonder if Contador is rated as good as he is on this forum in part due to his exciting attacks 12 months ago. A performance that in reality was mediocre but fawned over due to how exciting it was.

Dumb question, why is Henao favored so highly?

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

I don't think he was ever all that punchy. He was punchy enough to get a gap and then he would use his superior climbing to pull away and that was about as punchy as he usually needed to be. I don't think much has changed though, albeit his best now isn't as good as his best then.

Hey has always been top drawer at changing pace up and down the gears without destroying himself, which is a closely related ability to punchyness but not identical.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

Fayence is Mur de Huy-territory, the climb you are referring to is a pretty different effort. Its in Contador's favour that the stage is relatively hard though. Also, thats from 2014 - expecting similar results would most likely leave you disappointed.

Think the PV stage was a lot harder as well.

Huge difference between a 4 minute effort and an 8 minute one.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re:

I wonder if Contador is rated as good as he is on this forum in part due to his exciting attacks 12 months ago. A performance that in reality was mediocre but fawned over due to how exciting it was.

Dumb question, why is Henao favored so highly?

Contador is rated so highly because he's been the dominant stage racer of his generation. He hasn't produced the goods at the Tour in a long time, but he has done so often enough in other races for most people to think that only perhaps Porte of this field is a true climbing rival on paper even now. Surely this is hardly mysterious even if it turns out that he's past it and isn't actually the class of this kind of field any more?

Henao is a slightly more complex issue. He hasn't actually won much as a pro and isn't really that young. But most people, including me, keep thinking he's on the cusp of kicking on from being the sort of guy who wins an occasional stage in a short stage race. He's definitely a rider who has managed to stay hyped as a coming big thing for a very long time without actually becoming a big thing. Also everyone gives Colombian climbers the benefit of the doubt when it comes to rating them.

The "sign here if you thin Henao is a future star of the European peloton" thread was started seven years ago and well, most of us still think he's a future star of the European peloton!

 

[rick james]

Noone beats Henao in Fayence.

I hope.

But seriously, Henao is much more explosive than Contador, Fayence is good for him. Zakarin is a threat on Couillole, though.

Contador is a very explosive rider as well. If he is on 2014 form I wouldn't be surprised to see him to beat Henao. In 2014 he destroyed Valverde on this stage:
http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=25874
This was the last climb that day:

And he also came 3rd at Fleche in 2010, almost winning it but fading in the last meters because of mistiming his attack.
But Henao and Alaphilippe are the favourites for Fayence followed by Contador, D.Martin, Zakarin and co.

bertie fans...always looking back

 

[jaylew]

Today was really the reason I never see Porte winning a GT. He has the climbing ability and time trial ability. But he is really too susceptibale to the off-day. Either in bad weather or just not having the legs suddenly.

I think he put that to bed somewhat at last year's Tour. He didn't have a major off day and would have likely been 2nd if not for an ill-timed puncture.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Today was really the reason I never see Porte winning a GT. He has the climbing ability and time trial ability. But he is really too susceptibale to the off-day. Either in bad weather or just not having the legs suddenly.

I think he put that to bed somewhat at last year's Tour. He didn't have a major off day and would have likely been 2nd if not for an ill-timed puncture.

He put to bed the idea that he inevitably has a bad day. He will need to put three weeks together more often than twice in ten GTs to put the idea to bed that he is very likely to have a bad day however.

 

[Gloin22]

Re: Re:

Difference is Cotnador is grandpa now, pulling any results from past is meaningless as hes just not as good in any department

:lol:

I dont mean hes not a good rider, but his past results are meaningless. Just gotta go day by day and see what he does

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

I dont mean hes not a good rider, but his past results are meaningless. Just gotta go day by day and see what he does

Sure I thought the grandpa part was funny

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Re:

Wow this race has been brutal. I've never seen two flat stages in a row take such a toll without crashes. Great racing. Insane sprint at the end by someone I have never heard of. I'm a newbie who has been watching cycling on and off for 15 years.

Check out last year's Tour of Turkey for similar. Stages 2 & 3 iirc, first Caja Rural then Lotto completely demolish people in the crosswinds.

 

[HelloDolly]

Re:

1= Contador
2= Zakarin
3= Henao

My list from the predition from before the race began still stands

I think the rain and wind will effect Henao some what . I think Contador will have the edge on the climbs and will match Zakarin on the TT

 

[DNP-Old]

I hope Henao has his eyes on the Fayence stage. It is his cup of tea and he could deliver a serious blow to less explosive riders like Zakarin and possibly Contador these days as well.

 

[burning]

Re: Re:

Wow this race has been brutal. I've never seen two flat stages in a row take such a toll without crashes. Great racing. Insane sprint at the end by someone I have never heard of. I'm a newbie who has been watching cycling on and off for 15 years.

Check out last year's Tour of Turkey for similar. Stages 2 & 3 iirc, first Caja Rural then Lotto completely demolish people in the crosswinds.

I think what happened in the echelon stage of 2013 Tour was way more impressive than today or any stage from Turkey and Qatar. It is much easier to demolish people from team gabrovski or ride away from a much more weaker peloton.

 

[johnymax]

Wow, I am quite surprised by Colbrelli's win here. I didn't know he could pull it of against this kind of sprinting field, but his sprint was amazing. Is he one of the favourites now for Milano-Sanremo? I think he is. I'm also interested to see what he can do in his first Ronde.