Paris-Nice 2024, March 3-10

[SHAD0W93]

Evenepoel and Roglic to finish within 10 seconds of the other, just depends on who gains the most in the TTT and how the bonus seconds are decided for who’s first and second. Almeida to be third about a minute back and Bernal fourth.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

I also have no idea what the best tactic is for such a scenario

In theory it should always be an advantage to have at least one rider with you until a final all out sprint to the line, even if said rider just sits in your wheel, as long as you don't have to slow down too much for him to follow you. If it's a route with a lot of corners, then it might make sense for some riders to ride alone for longer.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Beautiful.

 

[Froome]

Beautiful.

What is beautiful @CyclistAbi ?

 

[proffate]

They should have put the TTT before the two recovery stages so there would be less incentive to rest your GC guy. As it stands, I can see teams not wanting their GC rider to burn matches going all out (solo) for the final few K just to grab a small handful of seconds.

 

[Froome]

We're in March. This is already clearly harder than what used to be on offer at this time until quite recently.

I'm fine with some medium mountain stages, but at least, they could had done a decent final mountain finish, a 1st category.

 

[bNator]

I know you keep saying this, but I very much doubt he's going to ride anywhere near 10 km on his own, unless all or most of his teammates crash out during the first two stages.

The idea Remco is anywhere near capable of outmatching a TT train by himself points to a lack of understanding just how much faster even a modest TT train is when compared to an individual rider.

I checked average speeds for the last TTT in Tour de France (2018). It was 55 km/h on a 35 km long course! The 20th best team had nearly 52,5 km/h. I'm guessing Remco on his best day will do 51 km/h on a course this long...

The only way he will go alone last 10 km is if his team miscalculate their effort and is completely spent. In this case, he will get badly beaten by other teams.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

What is beautiful @CyclistAbi ?

Roglič, Slovenian accordion music, protective clothing and not betting on things.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Evenepoel and Roglic to finish within 10 seconds of the other

Very likely scenario, especially if Bora starts 2 minutes earlier than SQS.

Ba-dum-tshh

 

[Samu Cuenca]

I'm fine with some medium mountain stages, but at least, they could had done a decent final mountain finish, a 1st category.

Auron is not much different than La Loge des Gardes, which was able to create solid gaps last year. It's also at 500m higher altitude and comes after a similar cat. 1 climb. The long uphill drag between the climbs will probably kill all the action, but the idea behind the race is also to keep the GC somewhat close so the Nice stage won't be made redundant.

 

[Netserk]

I'm fine with some medium mountain stages, but at least, they could had done a decent final mountain finish, a 1st category.

The Nice > Nice stage is far better than a simple uphill finish. And Auron is more than plenty in conjunction with the rest of the route (they finish at 2 km to go):

 

[tobydawq]

Roglič, Slovenian accordion music, protective clothing and not betting on things.

How could you forget no commas or subclauses?

 

[joseph89]

The idea Remco is anywhere near capable of outmatching a TT train by himself points to a lack of understanding just how much faster even a modest TT train is when compared to an individual rider.

I checked average speeds for the last TTT in Tour de France (2018). It was 55 km/h on a 35 km long course! The 20th best team had nearly 52,5 km/h. I'm guessing Remco on his best day will do 51 km/h on a course this long...

The only way he will go alone last 10 km is if his team miscalculate their effort and is completely spent. In this case, he will get badly beaten by other teams.

I'm not the only one lacking understanding then going off your example and assumptions.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

How could you forget no commas or subclauses?

I guess they only made it into my brutto troup

 

[Sciatic]

Will be interested to get the wind forecast when we’re closer to the start date.

 

[Lequack]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1763240462159061323

View: https://twitter.com/NBCSCycling/status/1763240462159061323?s=20

 

[bNator]

I'm not the only one lacking understanding then going off your example and assumptions.

Where am I lacking?

 

[johnymax]

The route is perfect for Remco. A longish TTT, a lot of medium mountain, no hard and long MTF, Rogla's first race of the season...

If he doesn't win this, then well...

 

[Berniece]

The route is perfect for Remco. A longish TTT, a lot of medium mountain, no hard and long MTF, Rogla's first race of the season...

If he doesn't win this, then well...

I would still give the edge to Roglic since he has a stronger team and is faster at the finish line

 

[joseph89]

Where am I lacking?

Your example and assumptions are flawed.

Have you looked at the profile and route of the last 10km?
Based on your example you assume remco is not capable of avging 55km/h on his own in the final 10km.
You also assume teams will still have all their riders after the first time check and also forgot to take into account remco isn't racing the first half of the TTT by himself.

launching remco into the last <10km

I believe SOQ if they go for that strategy will launch remco inside the final 10km whether that is at 9km or 1km.

 

[joseph89]

I would still give the edge to Roglic since he has a stronger team and is faster at the finish line

Think you meant to say "I would still give the edge to Roglic since he'll wheelsuck and is faster at the finish line" 😉

 

[Lequack]

Remco isn't like Vingegaard, he doesn't just attack from far out.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Where am I lacking?

Let me start by saying that i am not advocating he should do a 10km solo.

That said, since you're asking, you are severely lacking in your estimation of how fast Evenepoel can ride for that length. First of all, in the scenario you are discussing, he doesn't have to ride the entire length of the TT solo, just the final 10k. As for speed, on sections like those final 10k, he can push well over 55km/h. Look up his flat TT's (Vuelta'22, Vuelta'23, Giro'23, ECC'21... etc). After the climb it's downhill, which would actually suit him since speed is higher and his aerodynamics become more important.

He should try to keep Cattaneo and Van Wilder with him as long as possible, the three of them should have no problem going over the hilly section together. Someone like Vervaeke should completely bury himself on the climbs imho, since he won't be of much use later on anyway, probably more like a weak link by then. I think that it might be best to have Pedersen and/or Lampaert and/or Moscon go all out in the first split before the climb, to get a buffer. If one or two of them can manage to hang on til after the climb, that would be great, but they have to make sure they aren't holding back more in the first section in order to keep guys on board for the second section, than the advantage those guys will actually offer in the final section. I think that's the difficulty in managing this TTT, but Bora has similar problems with their line-up.

 

[bNator]

Your example and assumptions are flawed.

Have you looked at the profile and route of the last 10km?
Based on your example you assume remco is not capable of avging 55km/h on his own in the final 10km.
You also assume teams will still have all their riders after the first time check and also forgot to take into account remco isn't racing the first half of the TTT by himself.


I believe SOQ if they go for that strategy will launch remco inside the final 10km whether that is at 9km or 1km.

No. I don’t have to. There is no scenario where launching Remco on purpose 10 km to go makes any “mathematical” sense, unless he as a single unit is faster than the rest of their team in TTT formation. There is a distance where it makes sense to launch, but it’s far from 10 km.

 

[Escarabajo]

The route is perfect for Remco. A longish TTT, a lot of medium mountain, no hard and long MTF, Rogla's first race of the season...

If he doesn't win this, then well...

I see what you did there. LOL. Don't worry, Roglic has this one.