Paris-Nice Stage 7: Nice-Nice

[taiwan]

Nice-Nice:117km

General classification after stage 6:
1 Alberto Contador (Spa) Astana 25:43:24
2 Alejandro Valverde (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 0:00:14
3 Roman Kreuziger (Cze) Liquigas - Doimo 0:00:25
4 Luis-Leon Sanchez (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 0:00:26
5 Samuel Sanchez (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi 0:00:29
6 Jens Voigt (Ger) Team Saxo Bank 0:00:34
7 Joaquim Rodriguez (Spa) Team Katusha 0:00:36
8 Peter Sagan (Svk) Liquigas - Doimo 0:00:38
9 David Millar (GBr) Garmin - Transitions 0:01:02
10 Reine Taaramae (Est) Cofidis, Le Credit en Ligne 0:01:06
11 Jean-Christophe Peraud (Fra) Omega Pharma - Lotto 0:01:15
12 Jérôme Coppel (Fra) Saur - Sojasun 0:01:16
13 Sylvain Chavanel (Fra) Quick Step 0:01:21
14 Nicolas Roche (Irl) AG2R La Mondiale 0:01:22
15 Simon Gerrans (Aus) Sky Professional Cycling Team 0:01:30
16 Christophe Le Mevel (Fra) Française des Jeux 0:01:32
17 Janez Brajkovic (Slo) Team RadioShack 0:01:56
18 Christophe Riblon (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale 0:01:58
19 Maxime Bouet (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale 0:02:02
20 Frank Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank 0:02:05

Thought someone would have this up by now...

It's close: Valverde needs 14" on Contador. He could take 16" in time bonuses alone. Will another favourite be able to escape them both? Will someone way outside GC contention be allowed the stage? WIll there finally be a bunch sprint? Who knows.

Your thoughts...

 

[Moondance]

Valverde could take it with bonification seconds. He won't be able to put actual time into Conti (although the other way around is possible). Caisse will have to do all the work; Astana will be smart to allow all breaks containing non-threatening riders to escape, swallowing up all the bonuses along the way.

I say Valv comes up just short, loses it by two or something.

 

[Sasquatch]

LLS wins the stage.

 

[theswordsman]

I think Astana will be really protective of that early sprint. Either they'll let a break suck them up or send one of their own guys on a flier with a couple of chasers to keep them out of the wrong hands.

Finally, Alberto said that the last stage will be also “a difficult day, but I know the route very well because I almost always used it to attack. This time, at first, and say at first, I will approach it differently, but we\'ll see how everything goes. For now I\'ll rest in order to be tomorrow at the best possible condition”.

The Babelfish translation said he knows it like the back of his hand. He won't necessarily get to be the protagonist, but I don't see him holding back in any way. Monday and maybe Tuesday will be recovery days. He wants to be in even better shape for Catalunya and Pais Vasco. So it would make sense for him to put in a really hard effort. Plus the guy loves to attack when he's feeling good, and races to win. I hope a lot of other guys come out to play, but I expect him to put on a show.

I'll just toss this out there in case it helps someone not miss some live coverage (or sleep). The United States moves clocks forward an hour tonight, but France stays the same for two weeks. Cheers.

 

[ravens]

Contador won't lose any time tomorrow. There, I've said it, now it's off to bed.

 

[taiwan]

I'll say Caisse get Valverde the first intermediate sprint, then a breakaway goes away for a while, then Bert takes the final climb. Bert finishes in a small group, someone else taking the sprint, but Bert the overall.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I'm tipping a close one. Valverde for the stage and will take some bonus seconds.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

Sagan will smash!

 

[taiwan]

Maybe he's been bombarded by gamma rays.

Note: no illegal preparation being either implied or not implied here (gamma rays are not a banned substance).

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

I hope valverde wins. I like the guy.

 

[Publicus]

AC is winning this stage tomorrow. It's his favorite stage for attacking and there is nothing Valverde or anyone else can do to stop him.

 

[Publicus]

I'm tipping a close one. Valverde for the stage and will take some bonus seconds.

Thanks! With your track record on predictions (Cadel FTW!), almost a certainty Valverde won't get the win!

 

[KazakhNeRider]

I think that Alberto should attack on Col d'Eze to have some gap before final downhill. Otherwise Samu would be very dangerous!

 

[Sasquatch]

1. Luis Leon Sanchez
2. Alejandro Valverde +0.05
3. Alberto Contador +0.05

Valverde will lead a group home consisting of about 10-15 riders.

Valverde won't win PN unless Contador struggles.

Their best bet would be going for a stage win and salvaging something out of this race.

 

[Sasquatch]

Caisse go full speed up Col de la Porte and Turbie. Drop as many riders as they can. Attack at the base of Col d'Eze through Sanchez and Valverde. They won't be able to drop Contador but they can drop Kreuziger. Sam Sanchez can go with them.

First four over the top - Sanchez, Sanchez, Contador, Valverde. Sanchez should have enough to make it onto the podium and Caisse should take a stage win.

 

[Lance Armstrong]

Sagan will smash!

No chance for Sagan today. I can see him around 25th place with +1:40.

1. Valverde
2. Samuel
3. Contador

 

[Sasquatch]

1. Luis Leon Sanchez
2. Alejandro Valverde +0.02
3. Alberto Contador +0.02
4. Samuel Sanchez +0.02
5. Roman Kreuziger +0.15

 

[The Barb]

Valverde clearly the guy to beat for the stage.

I give Joaquin Rodriguez a bit of a chance too. He has finished ahead of Luis Leon Sanchez (who is not quite in the same form as last year) in the last four stages but is less fancied than him in the betting.

 

[bianchigirl]

Caisse going all out presupposes that they have the legs - Astana have played a canny game over the last couple of stages, bluffing Caisse into doing more work over the harder terrain. I can't see AC losing the overall but I hope - unlike yesterday when Caisse really missed a trick - it's going to be fun to watch AV trying

 

[auscyclefan94]

Thanks! With your track record on predictions (Cadel FTW!), almost a certainty Valverde won't get the win!

that's why i tipped him publicus! just for you! I am also tipping gesink for the win tonight in TA so it curses him!

 

[python]

i normally dont part take in the prediction contests but will make an exception -
berto may lose few seconds, perhaps on bonuses again, but will retain the title.

astana should send two riders in a breakaway.

 

[reyan12]

an all spanish podium today.with less than 10 seconds separating the riders

 

[Nearly]

1. Luis Leon Sanchez
2. Alejandro Valverde +0.02
3. Alberto Contador +0.02
4. Samuel Sanchez +0.02
5. Roman Kreuziger +0.15

Depending on where Contador is at the time (so that winning bonus points could help Valverde) it is hard to see team rules not applying and LLS letting Valverde past if they are that close.

Then again if Alberto is anywhere but right on their hammer (if not in front of them) then I would be surprised. I have come full circle - you are probably right!

 

[Sasquatch]

Yeah, if Contador is with them, then Contador will agree to one of them winning the stage. So Valverde will probably give it to Sanchez.

 

[Sasquatch]

an all spanish podium today.with less than 10 seconds separating the riders

Why stop at the podium?

If the Spanish team up, Kreuziger could be demoted to 6 and the top 5 will look like:

Contador
Valverde
Sanchez
Sanchez
Rodriguez