Paris - Roubaix 2024, one day monument, April 7

[JohnWayne]

Fabian's fastest time was 2013 on a 254.5km course. 20 minutes slower than today on a 259.7km course...with a chicane into one of the fastest segments on the course.

I can keep going, but won't. Res ipsa loquitur

Was Cancellara (and his team) going for the fastest possible time when he raced? No, of course not. Hence, I don't understand the argument here.

PS. The Arenberg chicane contributed less than 0.1kph to the race average speed.

 

[Danskebjerge]

I don't need that - I love variety.

I can easily follow your fascination about cycling. But I was talking about the *race*, and I should think that racing involves a certain suspense, not just the sound of chains and various aesthetics.

I don’t mind that there is a possibility of races being decided early on, but that should only be possible on rare occasions. Like maybe in 1 out of 10 Paris-Roubaix’s. I’ll maintain that it is a sort of malfunction. After all, when you look at race courses, they are designed to create an increasing intensity as we get closer to the finish line. That’s because this is what the organizers want - it’s what people want.

But these years, way too many races are lacking suspense through the last 1-2 hours. The superman break-away isn’t an exception anymore as it should be.

It also puzzles me a bit - as to why it’s possible. But that’s a different discussion.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

It's a moot point because there were less cobbles in PR during the 1960.s.

In the 1964 edition ~50K pavé sections were distributed along the last 150K of the 260K route.
In addition, the riders were "favored" by rainy weather. But, of course, also a strong tailwind.

Here an article with focus on the role and status of the main competitors between, in considerations about comparisons of avg. speed during different decades.

Not that I agree with all parts of the explanations.
(Some of it turns more like clinical stuff as explanation to be honest, IMO, following this POV)
But not my main point.
Just that a road race is not a bike track event and that several factors can explain why a P-R edition 60 years ago manage to have similar high average speed as editions here in the 2020s, and back then rode on heavy steel frames with only 6-7 gears available, shifters located at the frames and so on.

IMO Part of this can be explained by the dynamics of the race itself, between the riders, as described.
But beyond that, a host of other factors.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

the thing is. In cancellara/boonen time people just followed the peloton more and whle there was anticipation groups it wasnt the same as now.

Now people want to get away from VDP/Van Aert/Pogi whatever so badly they open races so early with semi favorites. Heck Asgreen was in the early break (i know he's washed but still). So the avg speed goes up...

 

[Roku]

I can easily follow your fascination about cycling. But I was talking about the *race*, and I should think that racing involves a certain suspense, not just the sound of chains and various aesthetics.

I don’t mind that there is a possibility of races being decided early on, but that should only be possible on rare occasions. Like maybe in 1 out of 10 Paris-Roubaix’s. I’ll maintain that it is a sort of malfunction. After all, when you look at race courses, they are designed to create an increasing intensity as we get closer to the finish line. That’s because this is what the organizers want - it’s what people want.

But these years, way too many races are lacking suspense through the last 1-2 hours. The superman break-away isn’t an exception anymore as it should be.

It also puzzles me a bit - as to why it’s possible. But that’s a different discussion.

Disagree. Also on the "what people want" part - how do you measure it? Can you compare viewers of this edition to the one won by Terpstra and draw conclusions? (an awful race with almost 30 riders finishing just one minute behind Terpstra)

Race is about suspense.. ok, I can buy it, but it is also about endurance and pushing through limits, peloton thinning out. I certainly enjoyed a lot the ~150 KMS to ~60KMS section.

Also, the product should be an entertaining one, and certainly a race with 3 hours of action is much more appealing than just 5 minutes action.

I certainly don't want Roubaix to become a MSR or any random murito finale with dull useless hours of race and a 10 minute summary on YouTube as the only product of the race, neither is the standard that race organizers should be looking at.

 

[pastronef]

Meh.

MY NUDES IN BIO

 

[Netserk]

In the 1964 edition ~50K pavé sections were distributed along the last 150K of the 260K route.

I'd most welcome documentation for that.

Carrefour de l'Arbre was introduced in 1980.
Camphin-en-Pévèle likewise in 1980.
Cysoing à Bourghelles in 1981.
Mons-en-Pévèle in 1978.
Auchy-lez-Orchies à Bersée in 1980.
Orchies partly in 1977, fully in 1980.
Tilloy-lez-Marchiennes à Sars-et-Rosières in 1980.
Pont Gibus in 1974.
Arenberg in 1968.
Haveluy in 2001.
The two sections at Saint-Python were introduced in 1973 and 1974.

Surely they previously rode over some other pavé sections, but I very much doubt that they just happened to add up to the same amount.

Tout savoir sur l’itinéraire 2009…

 

[Izzyeviel]

what was the state of the cobbles before the 60's?

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

what was the state of the cobbles before the 60's?

even the state of the roads were like *** compared to now i dont even want to know

 

[hayneplane]

I can easily follow your fascination about cycling. But I was talking about the *race*, and I should think that racing involves a certain suspense, not just the sound of chains and various aesthetics.

I don’t mind that there is a possibility of races being decided early on, but that should only be possible on rare occasions. Like maybe in 1 out of 10 Paris-Roubaix’s. I’ll maintain that it is a sort of malfunction. After all, when you look at race courses, they are designed to create an increasing intensity as we get closer to the finish line. That’s because this is what the organizers want - it’s what people want.

But these years, way too many races are lacking suspense through the last 1-2 hours. The superman break-away isn’t an exception anymore as it should be.

It also puzzles me a bit - as to why it’s possible. But that’s a different discussion.

I think the superman breakaway phenomenon is simply that they have seen it pay off in big races and being competitive alpha types they want to match and exceed the feats of their contemporaries pushing each other to ever greater rides.

The likes of Pog/Remco/MVDP are absolute showmen at heart who love to produce a spectacle almost as much as they love to win.

I think peak Valverde could have attacked 4/5 climbs out from the finish in LBL and still won back in his heyday but he lacked that bravery or desire to do so.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I think the superman breakaway phenomenon is simply that they have seen it pay off in big races and being competitive alpha types they want to match and exceed the feats of their contemporaries pushing each other to ever greater rides.

The likes of Pog/Remco/MVDP are absolute showmen at heart who love to produce a spectacle almost as much as they love to win.

I think peak Valverde could have attacked 4/5 climbs out from the finish in LBL and still won back in his heyday but he lacked that bravery or desire to do so.

No, I think the reason for these long solo's is they know nobody will ride with them.

Ideally VDP wants to win races the way he did before. Attack, ride, attack ,ride, attack until they all suffer. But now nobody wants to ride with these types anymore. So they try to anticipate or go earlier or put them in a many vs 1 situation.

So the solution is go yourself hard, and just solo to the line. Takes away the problem of people not riding with you. Still have to have the capability to ride 50/60k on your own tho (or in pogi's case 80). But it's the answer to the "sagan" issue

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

I'd most welcome documentation for that.

Carrefour de l'Arbre was introduced in 1980.
Camphin-en-Pévèle likewise in 1980.
Cysoing à Bourghelles in 1981.
Mons-en-Pévèle in 1978.
Auchy-lez-Orchies à Bersée in 1980.
Orchies partly in 1977, fully in 1980.
Tilloy-lez-Marchiennes à Sars-et-Rosières in 1980.
Pont Gibus in 1974.
Arenberg in 1968.
Haveluy in 2001.
The two sections at Saint-Python were introduced in 1973 and 1974.

Surely they previously rode over some other pavé sections, but I very much doubt that they just happened to add up to the same amount.

Tout savoir sur l’itinéraire 2009…

Thanks for detailed historic info!

I must admit that my memory fails and you are fully right;
My immediate memory the pavé sections you mention told me as being introduced in the early 60s to recover pieces of cobblestone - in connection with the French Ministry of Transport shortly before WW2 declaring "that in 5 years all ordinary roads with cobblestones will be gone".

Although delayed due to the war, but from mid 50's onwards total sections with Pavés were reduced from +60K to sub 30K.

I just read up on it and the 1964 version was supposed to be one of the lightest versions at ~25K cobbles total.
And another kind of maybe less hairy sections than in your list.

That explains quite of a portion of the average speed in that edition (though wet roads and most possible worse condition on normal roads)

Edit: The project to increase number and distance of Pavé sections back to previous eras started 2 years later in 1966, apparently.

 

[KOM]

Honesty the Cancellara wouldve finished last in today race el oh el argument is by far the worst Ive ever read on here and im surprised theres so little backlash against it.

 

[kingjr]

There's a video where Cancellara talks about his performance at the 2016 Olympics ITT, saying he pushed 450 watts for 72 min at about 78 kg (roughly 5.8 w/kg). Doesn't tell us anything about where he would have finished in P-R this year, but I would be curious to learn what Mathieu's numbers are.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Well, he has won half of his participations in each race.

Sure, but RVV is tailormade for Mathieu. Roubaix obviously is a great race as well, but surely you agree?

 

[ManicJack]

To put MVDP's ride into a bit different perspective, Riley Sheehan averaged 45.3 kph to finish 12 minutes down.

 

[Volderke]

Honesty the Cancellara wouldve finished last in today race el oh el argument is by far the worst Ive ever read on here and im surprised theres so little backlash against it.

well, the 1948 edition was the 7th fastest of all times.
So Rik Van Steenbergen would have handily beaten every single rider in the 70s, 80s, 90s and 00s e.g. Merckx, Hinault, Ballerini, Museeuw, you name them.

can't beat that logic so no reason for backlash as in: don't feed the...

 

[Unchained]

The answer to your question is probably no.

I don't agree with you though. Team Hair Booster was stalling for JP so they weren't doing anything. Trek had to make a decision. Obviously they could have assumed that ADC would drill it back, but Trek was playing several what ifs. One of them being, "what if we can keep JP out of the break?', another being, 'what if we put MvdP under pressure while he is waiting?'. Should they have called it off a little quicker? Maybe?

Mads was just sitting on ADC (just like MvdP) for a lot of the race so...
Mads/Trek has to at least do something in the race, right?...

Been having lots of problems because I pour coffee on my head instead of spending @$14 dollars on a tiny bottle of Alpecin caffeine shampoo, my coffee treatments have not improved my hair or my riding. People tell me I don't look anything like, or ride anything like MvdP..so I am going to start using the shampoo immediately and hope to beat him next year in Paris Roubaix..I can't find the registration form online

 

[Unchained]

To put MVDP's ride into a bit different perspective, Riley Sheehan averaged 45.3 kph to finish 12 minutes down.

What I find so amazing about some of these elite riders, they are riding at a really really high level and then go deep and attack, often multiple times and once they get separation and get a gap, either maintain it or in this case get it up to 3 minutes in 60k slamming it solo!! Van der Poel looks like he goes somewhere else mentally when he gets a gap and can just go deeper and push harder, it's super natural.. Wonder if Riley said to himself as Van der Poel attacked and rolled away.. Where did he get that from?
In the Pederson post race interview, he just says that MvdP was just on another level..45.3 is flying!!!

 

[jmdirt]

What I find so amazing about some of these elite riders, they are riding at a really really high level and then go deep and attack, often multiple times and once they get separation and get a gap, either maintain it or in this case get it up to 3 minutes in 60k slamming it solo!! Van der Poel looks like he goes somewhere else mentally when he gets a gap and can just go deeper and push harder, it's super natural.. Wonder if Riley said to himself as Van der Poel attacked and rolled away.. Where did he get that from?
In the Pederson post race interview, he just says that MvdP was just on another level..45.3 is flying!!!

Break on through to the other side!

 

[tobydawq]

Sure, but RVV is tailormade for Mathieu. Roubaix obviously is a great race as well, but surely you agree?

Well, I think he has met a better rider in De Ronde in Pogacar. You could argue that Wout is his equal in Roubaix but the fact is that he is yet to win it.

I don't know. People always say that Van der Poel's explosivity is his main force and that's why Flanders is his best race.

I think that's underestimating his rouleur skills which are also top notch. And his technique is also more useful in Roubaix than in De Ronde (wet Koppenberg notwithstanding).

 

[Salvarani]

Well, I think he has met a better rider in De Ronde in Pogacar. You could argue that Wout is his equal in Roubaix but the fact is that he is yet to win it.

I don't know. People always say that Van der Poel's explosivity is his main force and that's why Flanders is his best race.

I think that's underestimating his rouleur skills which are also top notch. And his technique is also more useful in Roubaix than in De Ronde (wet Koppenberg notwithstanding).

Agree with this very good assessment.

And I think Van Der Poel has an upper edge on Van Aert in Ronde, but not against Pog.

It is the other way around in PR. MVDP has upper edge against Pog and mostly because of technique. Especially in the corners on the cobbles. Pog would have to close mini-gaps all the time, I reckon, which could be costly in the end. However, Pogs engine might prevail anyway. Maybe MVDP falls behind and have to chase. Then it would be really interesting.

Van Aert and MVDP should be more even in PR, but something always happen to Wout. There seems to be something with their tires in Visma. They seem to puncture all the time and every rider on the team has done it multiple times. Really crazy looking at the past editions. It is a huge disadvantage when they on paper should be very even here.

 

[Ricco']

Just for comparison, average speed from the moment they went solo for Boonen (Paris - Roubaix 2012) vs Van der Poel (Paris - Roubaix 2024). Times taken off from GPS distances on broadcast and timestamps (Youtube video vs. Eurosport Player feed, respectively)

Boonen:
Alone with 57 km to go (after leaving his teammate Terpstra behind)
Time elapsed to finish: 1h15m31s
Average Speed: 45,29 km/h

MVDP:
Alone with 59.7 km to go
Time elapsed to finish: 1h19m27s
Average speed: 45,08 km/h

 

[Ricco']

Just for comparison, average speed from the moment they went solo for Boonen (Paris - Roubaix 2012) vs Van der Poel (Paris - Roubaix 2024). Times taken off from GPS distances on broadcast and timestamps (Youtube video vs. Eurosport Player feed, respectively)

Boonen:
Alone with 57 km to go (after leaving his teammate Terpstra behind)
Time elapsed to finish: 1h15m31s
Average Speed: 45,29 km/h

MVDP:
Alone with 59.7 km to go
Time elapsed to finish: 1h19m27s
Average speed: 45,08 km/h

From the attack until the end of Carrefour de l'Arbre:
Boonen: 46,20 km/h
MVDP: 44,50 km/h

Pedersen/Philipsen/Politt did 43,44 average from the moment VDP attacked.

 

[ChewbaccaDefense]

Just for comparison, average speed from the moment they went solo for Boonen (Paris - Roubaix 2012) vs Van der Poel (Paris - Roubaix 2024). Times taken off from GPS distances on broadcast and timestamps (Youtube video vs. Eurosport Player feed, respectively)

Boonen:
Alone with 57 km to go (after leaving his teammate Terpstra behind)
Time elapsed to finish: 1h15m31s
Average Speed: 45,29 km/h

MVDP:
Alone with 59.7 km to go
Time elapsed to finish: 1h19m27s
Average speed: 45,08 km/h

This is the best refutation I've seen of my argument. I will add that the 2012 edition included 2 fewer cobbled sections (adding to the slightly shorter distance in 2012), but the data that I see that really counters my initial post is the weather. As you can see, the prevailing winds yesterday were significant and in many sections a bloc tailwind: https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/@2982681/historic

In 2012 the winds were a cross tail, not nearly as strong as yesterday: https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/@2982681/historic?month=4&year=2012

So yes, my comparison is severely flawed. I still question how every single classic this year has been the fastest ever, but on this instance, my proposition that Boonen or Cancellara would have finished last is not backed by the data. EDIT: Or common sense.

The idea that you "don't feed the ..." does not work on me. I don't mind being wrong. Prove me wrong at any given point, I just learn more that way.