Paul Seixas: Tour de France Winner 2031

[saunaking]

Ayuso was always far from Vingegaard. Ayuso has never dropped Roglic.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2041580684590911672

View: https://x.com/Na1chaca/status/2041580684590911672?s=20

hey siri, make me a random scatter graph

 

[pastronef]

In Avenir, he was half a minute ahead of Widar; in the autumn, his level improved; in Algarve, he was at Ayuso's level; in Strade, he was some better than o Del Toro's; today, he's 1000 levels ahead of Widar, Lorenzo Finn, Pericas...., 100 ahead of Ayuso, and 70 ahead of Del Toro.

I've commented the rest in another thread.

you could clearky see that Ayuso and del Toro were way below par. Del Toro lost the wheels of his group in the last km. let's wait to see when Seixas goes against Pog and Vingo

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

it wasnt godzilla who killed goliath

Can Seixas bring the equivalent of a pistol to a melee fight though?

 

[Red Rick]

hey siri, make me a random scatter graph

I'm so bored by it man, especially with the LR guys it's so obvious they're trying to spin everything.

They are always ignoring wind and tactics to spin.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Well these are just numbers. I see no spin. You can make your own analysis yourself based on that

 

[Valv.Piti]

I think you really have to consider the performances of the last two days and ask youself, how much would Pog have done better? It's difficult to imagine Pog, simply because Pog, would have blown Seixas out of the water, the way the latter did everyone else here in Itzulia thus far. This would mean the same time gaps Paul gave the competition in the opening TT and then on the first mountain stage, Pogacar would have given him. But this is just not realistic, at least I don't think it is. Consequently, one would conclude Paul's level is indeed close to Pogacar's in a theoretical framework for the moment. Forget about Strade Bianche. That's history now and, in any case, Seixas was second at one minute against a Pog who was tackling the first of a serious of big races he was aiming to win, MSR, Flanders and Roubaix next. By contrast, Paul's first truely big objective is Liege, which means only now he is really starting to fire rev up his engine. Granted Liege will let us know the true situation.

Realistically Pog wins these week long stage races incredibly easy nowadays. Its not even a contest.. even against Jonas. Its probably the area where he's the most lethal including hard one day races and GTs - he just doesnt do too many.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Ayuso has never dropped Roglic.

He did so at both the WCRR and the Giro MTF he won last year.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Well these are just numbers. I see no spin. You can make your own analysis yourself based on that

'Just numbers' are still spin if the data is deliberately presented in a misleading way, cherrypicked, or purposefully outright inaccurate/incomplete. Which happens all the time in all walks of life.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

you could clearky see that Ayuso and del Toro were way below par. Del Toro lost the wheels of his group in the last km. let's wait to see when Seixas goes against Pog and Vingo

Why does Seixas have to prove himself against Vingegaard and Pogacar when Del Toro was hailed after a (lost) battle against Simon Yates and Carapaz and then just farming Italian 1.1?

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Del Toro was hailed after a (lost) battle against Simon Yates and Carapaz and then just farming Italian 1.1?

Only by people easily blinded by hype and people actively trying to blind with hype.

 

[Extinction]

Realistically Pog wins these week long stage races incredibly easy nowadays. Its not even a contest.. even against Jonas. Its probably the area where he's the most lethal including hard one day races and GTs - he just doesnt do too many.

But this is not in relation to what's going on right now (the last two years I'd have agreed), for which though, unfortunately, we have no direct comparisons. The Jonas of PN and Catalunya or the Paul thus far in Itzulia I think would at least be a contest for Pog, in other words. And let's hope so for the sport.

 

[Coppi-Bartali]

He did so at both the WCRR and the Giro MTF he won last year.

As you said , facts (numbers) without context.

In Kigali, Roglic had a leader far superior to him; here, he's leader.
The stage Ayuso won in the Giro was an uphill sprint; you can't consider him dropped Roglic like we saw yesterday. Ayuso has never dropped Roglic like that on a climb. We saw it in Catalonia; they were matched in climbs.

'Just numbers' are still spin if the data is deliberately presented in a misleading way, cherrypicked, or purposefully outright inaccurate/incomplete. Which happens all the time in all walks of life.

 

[Coppi-Bartali]

you could clearky see that Ayuso and del Toro were way below par. Del Toro lost the wheels of his group in the last km. let's wait to see when Seixas goes against Pog and Vingo

Lipowitz is similar as he was in Catalonia. It's difficult to compare races, but in a single stage Lipowitz lost the same amount of time as he did in a week in Catalonia. I don't understand this underestimation of what happened yesterday.

I'm not saying Seixas will beat Pogacar not even Vingegaard in the Tour, but yesterday he beat Lipowitz and others just like Vingegaard did in Catalonia.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Same you said , stating facts (numbers) without context.

In Kigali, Roglic had a leader far superior to him; here, he's leader.
The stage Ayuso won in the Giro was an uphill sprint; you can't consider him dropped Roglic like we saw yesterday. Ayuso has never dropped Roglic like that on a climb. We saw it in Catalonia; they were matched in climbs.

Apples and oranges, as you probably full well know.

'Ayuso has never dropped Roglic' is a very straightforward statement that is falsifiable with one counterexample and provable by an absence of counterexamples. 'Seixas is on the same level as Vingegaard' is a much more complicated statement and therefore much less easily provable or falsifiable.

And on the subject of apples and oranges, 'Ayuso has never dropped Roglic to the extent Seixas did yesterday' is an entirely different statement from the one you made (and is obviously true). And implying 2025 Catalunya Roglic is equal to yesterday's Roglic is pretty hilarious for someone complaining about me supposedly taking things out of context...

 

[pelotonIQ]

This guy will soon replace boring Jonas as Pogi's main rival in grand tours. Time for Jonas fans (90% compromised of people that want to see Pogi lose) leave the Jonas train and hop on the Seixas train.

 

[Red Rick]

Well these are just numbers. I see no spin. You can make your own analysis yourself based on that

They are not just numbers. They are deliberately misleading.

They pretend to use a consistent methodology while being comoletely selective about taking into account wind or drafting

 

[Extinction]

This guy will soon replace boring Jonas as Pogi's main rival in grand tours. Time for Jonas fans (90% compromised of people that want to see Pogi lose) leave the ,cJonas train and hop on the Seixas train.

Well, if a Jonas fan, it kinda comes with the territory that you want Pogi to lose and vice versa.

 

[BubbaChuck]

His generation looks weak,who is even rival.

 

[the asian]

His generation looks weak,who is even rival.

There are lot of good GC guys , climbers born in 2005 and 2006 , Seixas has just shot out of the blocks and has imporved enormously from his junior days. The others might take a more gradual progression.

There are some good 2008 born juniors too.

 

[pastronef]

His generation looks weak, who is even rival.

development and rise and performance are not the same. every athlete evolves in their own way. so on April 8th 2026 we can't say who will be high level in 1, 2, or 5 years
also, fans have to be more patient and not overreact

 

[Coppi-Bartali]

His generation looks weak,who is even rival.

Vingegaard was weaker, and look at him now. Perhaps Seixas's future rival is a 24 years domestique who finishes this Itzulia in 78th place.

 

[yaco]

I am interested in whether SEixas will sit on his lead or try for more stages,

 

[Berniece]

I am interested in whether SEixas will sit on his lead or try for more stages,

I think he'll win 1 more stage, tomorrow. Not sure he will try to go for victory today. Because that would mean he goes for 4 stages back 2 back. Not sure how well that is received in the peloton.

 

[canina82]

His generation looks weak,who is even rival.

What is even more ridiculous is Pogacar still has aliens like MVP, Remco and Vingegaard in his generation. In 3-4 years, who is gonna beat Seixas in RVV? Remco can’t ride cobbles, MVP, Pedersen, Wout will be gone, Pogacar will eventually regress. We don't have cobbles specialists anymore! Seixas will be the new Merckx, mark my words!

 

[Jan the Man]

What is even more ridiculous is Pogacar still has aliens like MVP, Remco and Vingegaard in his generation. In 3-4 years, who is gonna beat Seixas in RVV? Remco can’t ride cobbles, MVP, Pedersen, Wout will be gone, Pogacar will eventually regress. We don't have cobbles specialists anymore! Seixas will be the new Merckx, mark my words!

Crikey - that’s some hyperbole. Who knows who will be coming through in 3 or 4 years who are not already on the radar. Sexias looks the strong bet to be the next dominant and pre eminent stage racer and hilly classics rider of his generation (when he takes the mantle from Pog or Vigne who knows) but development is not linear and not sure how you can extrapolate he will be the dominant force in RVV in 5 years from his performance here.