argyllflyer said:
Sagan is talked up as a great Classics rider but after 4 years in the WT peloton (now in his 5th), his biggest one day win is Gent-Wevelgem.
He will usually not beat the top sprinters on a flat finish but can place high enough to pick up points in those jersey competitions. He can see off the top guys and the rest in more selective sprints. In Classics season though, those kind of finishes may have cobbles and climbs before they're reached, and he's at this point not the best at that either.
When it comes to the steep ramps, he won't win Fleche Wallonne (he gave it a good go last year), nor Amstel Gold so long as the best puncheurs and those better at climbing than him are around. Maybe Strade Bianche is another race he will struggle to win in decent climbing company as evidenced yesterday. (...)
Is Sagan the new EBH?
I love watching the guy but I feel he seems to have lost something. Last year was a great opportunity to win Milan-Sanremo - no major sprinters close by, yet he got it wrong. A more sprinter-friendly route this year doesn't bode well.
Context is important. He lost something and he gained something. Sagan is fifth year a pro, but his role evolves, and so far he still improves his results.
2010, Sagan 19-20 yo neopro, promising sprinter. Some WOW results, e.g. his first two WT victories at P-N. Promising start, some expectations, some doubts. Fatigue in the second half of season.
2011 (21 yo), sprinter. No Tour. 3 victories at Vuelta. Great DH skills, some ability to survive mountains - in comparison to other sprinters. No classics expectations and results. Obvious progress to previous year.
2012 (22 yo), sprinter, promising classics rider, making mistakes, gaining necessary experience. Astonishing uphill sprint in Chieti (T-A). 4th at MSR due to team tactic prefering Nibali. 5th at RVV, clearly not on the level of Boonen, Pozatto, Balan, making mistakes on Oude, no Cance. 3th AGR, sprinting too early, his biggest mistake of the classics season. Green jersey, 3 victories at Tour, great performance. Disappeared after Tour, fatigue, maybe beer. Obvious progress in compare to previous year.
2013 (23 yo), classics rider, more endurance, fading sprint - he had to choose and he did it this way. First year of big classics expectations. Strong start in Oman, SB, great T-A (Sant'Elpidio). MSR 2nd, his biggest career fail so far. E3 2nd to Super-Cance. G-W 1st. RVV 2nd, but no fail: Cance - gap - Sagan - gap - others. No P-R (team decision and mistake), Brabantse Pijl 1st. Early season superform dissappeared during AGR. Green jersey, 1 win at Tour, slower than Kittel, Greipel and Cav, but much more durable. Great end of the season in US and Canada - Montreal 1st. 22 victories in the season. Obvious progress in compare to previous year.
2014 (24 yo), classics rider, time to deliver. Only way to improve his 2013´s results is to win his first monument. Early season form not as good as year before, hopefully peaking later? But too soon to judge him before classics season emerges. I´m full of expectations.