Philippe Gilbert on Fire!

[El Pistolero]

But I wasn't comparing him to Phil. Of course he's not going to beat Phil and I don't think I could ever say that he was unless something really weird happened. I was comparing him to Phil's backup team. And I was saying that he couldn't compare to Evans either. But in hilly classics, he might be able to compare to van Avermaet.

In that respect, he's not really a threat to win unless he's in the right break. I don't see van Avermaet as a winner of a race like La Flèche Wallonne or Liège-Bastogne-Liège anytime soon.

If you want to be a threat in the hilly classics you need to be a threat to guys like Phil, Cadel, Rebellin, Schlecks, etc

Let's be honest, he doesn't come close. He's perhaps close to GVA, but I don't see him as a threat in races like Lombardia or LBL tbh. More like Paris-Tours and races of that caliber. Perhaps San-Remo, but avoiding a group sprint there is hard and San-Remo is hardly a hilly classic. Visconti would be best used as a guy to put in a break or to let him work before the Roche aux Faucons(cause he'll be dropped after that hill).

 

[Libertine Seguros]

If you want to be a threat in the hilly classics you need to be a threat to guys like Phil, Cadel, Rebellin, Schlecks, etc

Let's be honest, he doesn't come close. He's perhaps close to GVA, but I don't see him as a threat in races like Lombardia or LBL tbh. More like Paris-Tours and races of that caliber. Perhaps San-Remo, but avoiding a group sprint there is hard and San-Remo is hardly a hilly classic. Visconti would be best used as a guy to put in a break or to let him work before the Roche aux Faucons(cause he'll be dropped after that hill).

You assume that by the hilly classics I mean "The Ardennes". Plenty of hilly races he can compete at where most of those guys won't even show up - Emilia, Romagna, Primavera, GP Big Mig, Rioja, Apennino, Getxo and so on.

Also San Sebastián could be suited to him.

 

[Parrulo]

Visconti gets constantly beaten by Rebellin. I doubt that happens to Phil. They haven't raced against each other yet, but they're training partners, so I'm sure they know how they stand against each other. I don't really see him as a threat for the Ardennes. Just don't think Visconti has a big enough engine for the real hard races. Valverde, if in decent shape, will be isolated pretty quickly if you look at the manpower BMC and BB team has.

2 words for you: Rui Costa

who by the way, imo is already much better then visconti

 

[auscyclefan94]

2 words for you: Rui Costa

who by the way, imo is already much better then visconti

2011
DNF Amstel Gold Race
DNF Fleche Wallonne
DNF Liege bastogne Liege.

I guess Rui Costa is yet to prove himself in the Ardennes. Not saying he isn't talented but there are planty are very talented Ardennes riders which will ride away Rui Costa.

Visconti...meh. Valverde will be no match in 2012. BMC domination. GVA Cadel and Phil will rip 'em to pieces!!!!

 

[Parrulo]

2011
DNF Amstel Gold Race
DNF Fleche Wallonne
DNF Liege bastogne Liege.

I guess Rui Costa is yet to prove himself in the Ardennes. Not saying he isn't talented but there are planty are very talented Ardennes riders which will ride away Rui Costa.

Visconti...meh. Valverde will be no match in 2012. BMC domination. GVA Cadel and Phil will rip 'em to pieces!!!!

you do realized those 3 races were the 3 first races he did this year don't you? he did amstell without a single race day in his legs since september of 2010. he had signed the contract with movistar the week before amstell, he had no shape at all.

so are you sure you still want to use those races as proof of something?

p.s. btw at 22 on his first year as a pro rui costa rode all the monuments starting at M-SR then the cobbled classics and then all the ardennes classics and in L-B-L he was the one pacing the peloton on la redoutte in a group of about 30 or so riders

i would say that also shows some talent. . . .

 

[greenedge]

Visconti's looking like turning into more of a threat in the hilly races. Obviously not as much of one as Evans, but certainly as much as van Avermaet.

He has picked up some surprisingly good results on hilly and mountain stages recently:
Having been in an Italian ProConti team for the last three years, the focus of his season has been a bit different to that that I would expect it to be at Movistar. He was mediocre in the Ardennes when he gave them a go with Quick Step, but he could easily be better now he's older and stronger uphill. And of course if he attacks, he'll have the benefit of having nobody wanting to drag Valverde on behind him.

Though realistically, both Visconti and Valverde will probably sit in the favourites group and try to win a sprint of the elites. It's just whether they cover the right moves.

Thx for the backup. Besides all he has to do is help Valverde. We saw how much Katusha could influence races over the year, with multiple people helping JROD. And the current assumption is that PG will own Valverde each time but that he still might come 2nd. So that is similar to that. Also i never stated Visconti will be a threat to PG ( though i might have called him a domestique deluxe )


I'm behind Rui Costa. I thought at Canada and on stage 8 of the TDF he showed he could one day be good at the Ardennes. He has potential and race smarts.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I think Costa is more of a threat at Amstel Gold than Flèche or Liège; Costa is mainly about getting into the right move, knowing when to go, when to conserve energy and generally racing smart, and less about the uphill sprint, so I don't think Flèche suits him. He'll make a good card to play up the road in Amstel and could win it the same way Ivanov did. I also think Amstel is the only Ardennes classic Greg van Avermaet can realistically win. We're also forgetting that van Avermaet is probably also going to be asked to do all the cobbled classics too, and may therefore not be at peak form by the time we get to the Ardennes.

Truthfully, BMC have the best team out there in terms of number of big guns. But do they have the Indians? It is possible to envisage a situation where the likes of Rui Costa, Daniel Moreno and Jakob Fuglsang get into the break, and BMC will need somebody there too (probably van Avermaet would be the one sacrificed) otherwise they're going to be spending the whole week on the front.

It only takes one crash to send the whole prediction game up in smoke too, of course.

 

[greenedge]

Yeah but at Liege the hill is 1.5 km or so from the finish. There is then like an 80m hill at 300m to go which is where people launch their sprint but then it's flat. It's all the other climbs that make it hard.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I think Costa is more of a threat at Amstel Gold than Flèche or Liège; Costa is mainly about getting into the right move, knowing when to go, when to conserve energy and generally racing smart, and less about the uphill sprint, so I don't think Flèche suits him. He'll make a good card to play up the road in Amstel and could win it the same way Ivanov did. I also think Amstel is the only Ardennes classic Greg van Avermaet can realistically win. We're also forgetting that van Avermaet is probably also going to be asked to do all the cobbled classics too, and may therefore not be at peak form by the time we get to the Ardennes.

Truthfully, BMC have the best team out there in terms of number of big guns. But do they have the Indians? It is possible to envisage a situation where the likes of Rui Costa, Daniel Moreno and Jakob Fuglsang get into the break, and BMC will need somebody there too (probably van Avermaet would be the one sacrificed) otherwise they're going to be spending the whole week on the front.

It only takes one crash to send the whole prediction game up in smoke too, of course.

Well I envisage the BMC Ardennes team to be:
Gilbert
Evans
Van Avermaet
Cummings
Frank
Santambrogio
Santamorita
Kohler

Talking about crashes is silly. It could happen to any team to anyone. BMC are smart enough to know when to send riders up the road especially when some of the directors are great classics riders such as Baldato and Vebrugghe in the car.

you do realized those 3 races were the 3 first races he did this year don't you? he did amstell without a single race day in his legs since september of 2010. he had signed the contract with movistar the week before amstell, he had no shape at all.

so are you sure you still want to use those races as proof of something?

p.s. btw at 22 on his first year as a pro rui costa rode all the monuments starting at M-SR then the cobbled classics and then all the ardennes classics and in L-B-L he was the one pacing the peloton on la redoutte in a group of about 30 or so riders

i would say that also shows some talent. . . .

I'll wait for an actual result for me to justify such hype. He clearly is good. But lets not get carried away.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I'll wait for an actual result for me to justify such hype. He clearly is good. But lets not get carried away.

Says the guy who spent a year tipping Alexander Kristoff to win everything he entered.

A result you want?
This is a pretty interesting hilly stage where he was 4th place, but just look at the pedigree of the three ahead of him:
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=20252

Won from the break, but raced smart for victory, something he could feasibly do again, after all, you don't always have to outrun something you can outwit:
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=20828

Likewise, though the field's not as impressive:
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=21095

Again, after absolutely shredding the break with attacks and Caisse doing a superb 1-2 job:
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=17671

A GC battle in a mostly flat but with some mildly hilly stages race:
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=11373

Short Spanish stage race with Critérium International format. Again not the strongest field, but he had only been back on the road a month:
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=20384

 

[auscyclefan94]

Says the guy who spent a year tipping Alexander Kristoff to win everything he entered.

A result you want?
This is a pretty interesting hilly stage where he was 4th place, but just look at the pedigree of the three ahead of him:
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=20252

Won from the break, but raced smart for victory, something he could feasibly do again, after all, you don't always have to outrun something you can outwit:
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=20828

Likewise, though the field's not as impressive:
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=21095

Again, after absolutely shredding the break with attacks and Caisse doing a superb 1-2 job:
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=17671

A GC battle in a mostly flat but with some mildly hilly stages race:
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=11373

Short Spanish stage race with Critérium International format. Again not the strongest field, but he had only been back on the road a month:
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=20384

By knw I would of expected you to understand my hyperbole regarding Kristoff. Tipping him to win races was often as an attempt to be humourous even though I did/do think he has potential.

Again, please read what I said. I said he is good rider. But the way some have been talking, it sounds like he is going to be a world dominator of cycling. I will be convinced he will be a top ardennes when he does something in the Ardennes week of which he has DNF'ed multiple times in the past. Good rider =/= Top rider. You even admit that some of his top results are from either breaks or rather weak fields.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

By knw I would of expected you to understand my hyperbole regarding Kristoff. Tipping him to win races was often as an attempt to be humourous even though I did/do think he has potential.

Again, please read what I said. I said he is good rider. But the way some have been talking, it sounds like he is going to be a world dominator of cycling. I will be convinced he will be a top ardennes when he does something in the Ardennes week of which he has DNF'ed multiple times in the past. Good rider =/= Top rider. You even admit that some of his top results are from either breaks or rather weak fields.

But at the same time, he's only just turned 25. In 2009 he had a bad time in the Ardennes, but he was 22. In 2010 he didn't ride them, the team preferred to put him in the Northern Classics, and that was part of his dispute with the team. In 2011 he did ride them, but they were his first races after seven months out thanks to his weird ban. Much as it was crazy to expect Thomas Dekker to take on the Volta a Portugal with little to no racing in his legs, it's crazy to expect Costa to be up there challenging in the Ardennes with none.

A lot of the time, these races are about an uphill sprint, but they're also about tactics, and racing smart from a group. In the classics, never underestimate the power of experience, but also of timing and tactics. Remember how Evans was the strongest man of everyone on the Mur in 2008, but launched way too early, faded and Kirchen took the win? See how far back from Antón and Contador he and Rodríguez came in 2010, when he timed it right? At one point there's a pretty big gap between the front two and him, but he knew when to let them go and when to pull them back. What Costa has shown in his short career to date is that he is very tactically astute and very smart when it comes to this kind of thing. He's not as talented a young rider as, say, Andy Schleck, but he looks to be much more tactically aware. The question mark is really over his endurance; it's all well and good having it over 200, but does he have it over 260?

I think Rui Costa can win a hilly Classic. Maybe not this year (San Sebastián shouldn't be outside his grasp depending on field though), maybe not even next. But he has all the tools in place to say that he could do it at some point, even if he has to do it a slightly roundabout way like Ivanov or Zaugg.

 

[Parrulo]

But at the same time, he's only just turned 25. In 2009 he had a bad time in the Ardennes, but he was 22. In 2010 he didn't ride them, the team preferred to put him in the Northern Classics, and that was part of his dispute with the team. In 2011 he did ride them, but they were his first races after seven months out thanks to his weird ban. Much as it was crazy to expect Thomas Dekker to take on the Volta a Portugal with little to no racing in his legs, it's crazy to expect Costa to be up there challenging in the Ardennes with none.

A lot of the time, these races are about an uphill sprint, but they're also about tactics, and racing smart from a group. In the classics, never underestimate the power of experience, but also of timing and tactics. Remember how Evans was the strongest man of everyone on the Mur in 2008, but launched way too early, faded and Kirchen took the win? See how far back from Antón and Contador he and Rodríguez came in 2010, when he timed it right? At one point there's a pretty big gap between the front two and him, but he knew when to let them go and when to pull them back. What Costa has shown in his short career to date is that he is very tactically astute and very smart when it comes to this kind of thing. He's not as talented a young rider as, say, Andy Schleck, but he looks to be much more tactically aware. The question mark is really over his endurance; it's all well and good having it over 200, but does he have it over 260?

I think Rui Costa can win a hilly Classic. Maybe not this year (San Sebastián shouldn't be outside his grasp depending on field though), maybe not even next. But he has all the tools in place to say that he could do it at some point, even if he has to do it a slightly roundabout way like Ivanov or Zaugg.

this +1000

but i guess saying rui costa may become a good ardennes rider is much more absurd then calling richie porte a future GT winner. . . .

 

[Zam_Olyas]

http://www.velonation.com/News/ID/1...ronger-in-2012-and-possibly-also-in-2013.aspx

 

[Roland Rat]

Well I envisage the BMC Ardennes team to be:
Gilbert
Evans
Van Avermaet
Cummings
Frank
Santambrogio
Santamorita
Kohler

Cummings will be whereever Evans is - he's being groomed as Evans' Tour right hand man.

Which is interesting from a Wiggins point of view. Kind of like Micky going to coach Ivan Drago.

 

[Panda Claws]

Van Avermaet has been demanding co-leadership in the ardennes lately but was told to 'be realistic' by Phil.

I just hope there will not be a 'feud' in the ardennes.

 

[El Pistolero]

Van Avermaet has been demanding co-leadership in the ardennes lately but was told to 'be realistic' by Phil.

I just hope there will not be a 'feud' in the ardennes.

Lol, did he fall on his head recently? He should be chasing breakaways and nothing else in the Ardennes.

Cadel Evans should be co-leader, but not GVA.

 

[greenedge]

Honestly i have no idea. If he is consistent at all races ( Ardennes/ M-SR/ RVV ) and wins the WC i think that will be mission accomplished for him.

 

[greenedge]

I think Rui Costa can win a hilly Classic. Maybe not this year (San Sebastián shouldn't be outside his grasp depending on field though), maybe not even next. But he has all the tools in place to say that he could do it at some point, even if he has to do it a slightly roundabout way like Ivanov or Zaugg.

I reckon he could win at least one classic next year. Winning at Canada and at the TDF showed how much talent/ astute he is.

That comment is a bit unfair to Zaugg. He was the strongest man on the day and where the winning move went all the other main contenders were there ( Martin, Basso, Gilbert etc ). I'd picked him to go well and said that leopard if they placed him in a break could be in a good position, where he could win. They had good cards to play and they used them well. Pity they could not do that at the Cobbles in support of Cancellara.

 

[El Pistolero]

I reckon he could win at least one classic next year. Winning at Canada and at the TDF showed how much talent/ astute he is.

That comment is a bit unfair to Zaugg. He was the strongest man on the day and where the winning move went all the other main contenders were there ( Martin, Basso, Gilbert etc ). I'd picked him to go well and said that leopard if they placed him in a break could be in a good position, where he could win. They had good cards to play and they used them well. Pity they could not do that at the Cobbles in support of Cancellara.

You don't know who was the strongest man that day. Could have been Gilbert or Nibali. Zaugg didn't waste energy before the final hill like Nibbles and Phil.

He was definitely one of the strongest that day though and probably the smartest(or luckiest, small difference sometimes.).

 

[greenedge]

Ok but if Nibali was that strong why would he just not wait till the end? He was strong though but people dropped back because it was foolhardy ( along with the attacks being strong ). Gilbert said he was not as strong as usual and the effort from earlier showed. Remember Zaugg did have his pre-race favourite from his team in that break as well.

I think Zaugg showed he was one of the strongest there that day.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Ok but if Nibali was that strong why would he just not wait till the end?

Because he's not as explosive as Gilbert, as well as some other riders.

 

[The Hitch]

Ok but if Nibali was that strong why would he just not wait till the end?

Because he wouldn't neccesarily have known he was the strongest. He would also perhaps, like many cyclist have thought (Gilbert has won this 2 years, hes won most hilly classics hes done this season, I can't beat him), so tried to break Gilbert when they were on a longer climb, which he is less suited too.

Finally, he was by far the best mountain rider of the front group but not neccesarily the best on hills. They were on a mountain. Nibali has balls. So he decided to go for it.

Didn't quite work out, but definitely earned a lot of peoples respect.

 

[Angliru]

Van Avermaet has been demanding co-leadership in the ardennes lately but was told to 'be realistic' by Phil.

I just hope there will not be a 'feud' in the ardennes.

If I read the article correctly, Van Avermaet only said he hoped that he would have the chance to race for himself in some of the big events. That could mean that instead of being solely a domestique that he be given the opportunity to jump in or cover a break or two or even have the greenlight to initiate a break with an attack. I understood him as showing the proper respect to Evans, Thor and Gilbert and only thinking optimistically that his season won't simply consist of riding in support of others.

 

[Panda Claws]

If I read the article correctly, Van Avermaet only said he hoped that he would have the chance to race for himself in some of the big events. That could mean that instead of being solely a domestique that he be given the opportunity to jump in or cover a break or two or even have the greenlight to initiate a break with an attack. I understood him as showing the proper respect to Evans, Thor and Gilbert and only thinking optimistically that his season won't simply consist of riding in support of others.

In this article Gilbert says that he is not planning to share the leadership with GVA and later GVA replies that he does not think Gilbert is right. At least that is what I understand from it.

http://www.nieuwsblad.be/article/detail.aspx?articleid=B33J2DND

Translation:

http://www.worldonbike.org/2011/12/...mc-in-spite-of-gilberts-arrival/#.TuJHBNXllRR