Berzin said:Let's jump ahead for a minute to speculate on a few things.
Let's say for the sake of argument that Armstrong will be exposed. As far as I'm concerned, this is inevitable. The actual legal wrangling may take years, as we've seen with BALCO, but we will know the testimony provided by the main players much earlier than that.
Exposed for what though? Just the doping or more juicy stuff about LiveStrong or his personal life? Maybe at this stage they'll be quite happy if it finishes up with the doping being the main issue - the general public is thoroughly softened-up to the idea that professional athletes dope, I can't see there being a huge backlash in that case - certainly not against the bit-part players.
Berzin said:But there have been people, major people in the sport, who have supported him throughout the years. People like Eddy Merckx for example.
Eddy who? Almost anyone who respects who Eddy is already knows the score. He'll feign shock, he'll have been horribly let down, but he'll be tranquil that things have changed in cycling and that the new guys have a chance to race clean. The same goes for Phil 'n' Paul, they never suspected a thing - seriously their biggest difficulty will be finding something to talk about in the hours of airtime they usually fill talking about their man-crush. Pat has given the lead, even if he's proved to have doped he's still one of the greatest ever. Now let's never talk about him again. New clean generation.
Berzin said:What would someone like Chris Carmichael say? Let's be real, this guy has built a career on Armstrong's back and himself has been involved in an out-of-court settlement involving doping. Will people begin to doubt him and his so-called "expertise"? How would he be able to weasel his way out of this?
Will someone like him be able to continue with his career with a straight face, or will people judge him accordingly for all the lies he's propagated over the years? Will it affect his bottom line?
Carmichael sells to idiots so he may be affected by the "revelations" that Armstrong doped. But never underestimate the hubris of these guys - he's already built a career out of pretending to coach LA while Dr F did the job properly so he probably has a tactic for this scenario as well, you can picture it now "Riding clean - the secret new training techniques that CC has developed to get the new clean generation the same speeds without the dope." Obviously he was shocked and let down and never suspected a thing as well.
Berzin said:What about his cancer foundation? Will it fold from people being upset they've been lied to all these years or will they keep believing and donating money to the cause?
Probably not too much damage if the stories are relatively restricted to dopage. The Armstrong team have always been very good at moving the story along as they need to - when you stop and think about the bulk of evidence down the years about his doping it's amazing that things have gone on so long, but they always manage to isolate the particular allegation and play just that as if it was the only thing and not part of a building picture. They'll try for that tactic here too and try to erase all the past denials and make it all about how everyone was doing it, try to give the impression that he was always honest about what it took to win. For a lot of general public this will wash, and 'heroic cancer survivor' will remain the message.
Ironically if he avoids a major jail sentence I could see this all leading to another come back as he and his team will want to take back the agenda. Obviously not proper European races, just events that want the publicity.
If there's substantially more than the doping then all bets are off. If he's properly busted for abusing charity funds (using LiveStrong donations to buy his drugs or in some other way using it to fund an 'immoral lifestyle') then of course LiveStrong would shut the doors and Armstrong would sink without a trace.