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Power Data Estimates for the climbing stages

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Re: Re:

rick james said:
SeriousSam said:
Minimal gaps to the other though. Entire field was quick today. Short __/ stage after an active recovery sprint stage with Movistar setting a sharp tempo from the bottom of the climb.
Yes, context is king
1999 had everyone going all out to limit time losses to Pantani, no tactics required.

Here's Stage 14 2014:



2007 was a TT
 
Sep 6, 2016
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Bavarianrider said:
1. 1999: 17:04 Marco Pantani 23.55 km/h
2. 2017: 17:37 Tom Dumoulin 22.82 km/h
3. 2017: 17:40 Ilnur Zakarin 22.75 km/h
4. 2017: 17:46 Mikel Landa 22.63 km/h
5. 1999: 17:50 Laurent Jalabert 22.54 km/h
6. 2017: 17:51 Nairo Quintana 22.52 km/h
7. 1999: 18:04 Gilberto Simoni 22.25 km/h
8. 1999: 18:07 Ivan Gotti 22.19 km/h
9. 1999: 18:07 Daniel Clavero 22.19 km/h
10. 1993: 18:12 Piotr Ugrumov 22.09 km/h
11. 2007: 18:12 Leonardo Piepoli 22.09 km/h
12. 2017: 18:12 Thibaut Pinot 22.09 km/h
13. 1999: 18:13 Nicola Miceli 22.07 km/h
14. 1993: 18:16 Stephen Roche 22.01 km/h
15. 1999: 18:18 Paolo Savoldelli 21.97 km/h
16. 2017: 18:18 Adam Yates 21.97 km/h
17. 2017: 18:20 Vincenzo Nibali 21.93 km/h
18. 2017: 18:20 Franco Pellizotti 21.93 km/h
19. 1993: 18:21 Moreno Argentin 21.91 km/h
20. 1999: 18:23 Andrei Zintchenko 21.87 km/h
21. 2017: 18:23 Steven Kruijswijk 21.87 km/h
22. 2017: 18:23 Tanel Kangert 21.87 km/h
23. 1999: 18:25 Daniele De Paoli 21.83 km/h
24. 1999: 18:26 Davide Rebellin 21.81 km/h
25. 1999: 18:26 Oscar Camenzind 21.81 km/h
26. 1999: 18:26 Massimo Codol 21.81 km/h
27. 2017: 18:27 Domenico Pozzovivo 21.79 km/h
28. 2014: 18:30 Nairo Quintana 21.73 km/h
29. 2007: 18:33 Marzio Bruseghin 21.67 km/h
30. 2014: 18:34 Fabio Aru 21.65 km/h
31. 2014: 18:34 Domenico Pozzovivo 21.65 km/h
32. 1999: 18:37 José Manuel Uria 21.59 km/h
33. 1999: 18:37 Roberto Heras 21.59 km/h
34. 2017: 18:37 Jan Hirt 21.59 km/h
35. 2014: 18:38 Wilco Kelderman 21.57 km/h
36. 2014: 18:38 Rafal Majka 21.57 km/h
37. 1993: 18:42 Claudio Chiappucci 21.50 km/h
38. 1993: 18:45 Pavel Tonkov 21.44 km/h
39. 1993: 18:48 Miguel Indurain 21.38 km/h
40. 2017: 18:49 Sebastien Reichenbach 21.36 km/h
41. 2007: 18:50 Danilo Di Luca 21.35 km/h
42. 2014: 18:50 Wouter Poels 21.35 km/h
43. 2014: 18:50 Cadel Evans 21.35 km/h
44. 2017: 18:51 Patrick Konrad 21.33 km/h
45. 2017: 18:51 Igor Anton 21.33 km/h
46. 2014: 18:55 Rigoberto Uran
47. 2017: 18:56 Rui Costa 21.23 km/h
48. 2017: 18:59 Jan Polanc 21.18 km/h
49. 2017: 18:59 Laurens De Plus 21.18 km/h
50. 2017: 18:59 Bob Jungels 21.18 km/h
So, the gap is 46 seconds from Pantani to Jalabert (1st to 2nd) and 3 from Dumoulin to Zakarin. Gap from Pantani to Gotti/Clavero (5th) is 1:03 and 35 seconds from Dumoulin to Pinot. If the argument is that Tom's gaps are suspicious, then I don't buy it. Obviously the watts are suspicious though.
 
Sep 6, 2016
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I can't remember the last time I watched the queen stage of the Giro in full so here's a question: how much do you expect the times on the final climb to be influenced by the previous climbs? 5% slower? 10%? What is usually the pacing strategy here (ie full gas on penultimate climb and survive final climb vs equal effort on both?) Thanks.
 
Re:

Durden93 said:
I can't remember the last time I watched the queen stage of the Giro in full so here's a question: how much do you expect the times on the final climb to be influenced by the previous climbs? 5% slower? 10%? What is usually the pacing strategy here (ie full gas on penultimate climb and survive final climb vs equal effort on both?) Thanks.
I think it depends a lot on how hard they're ridden.

In the 2015 Vuelta the Andorra had 5,6W/kg or thereabouts by Aru, whereas the Asturias stage was still around 6,0 and higher than a few uniclimbs
 
Yeah especially Pontives will be very low. Guessing it would be around 5.3 or in that area.

For reference, Valparola last year, which was properly raced, was in the 5.6 area. And when Quintana recked Froome on la Toussuire, that was also around 5.6, but that was after a very long waiting game.
 
Well I calculated some numbers for Blockhauss but did not find anything suspicious on any of the riders to be honest.

Quintana:
58 kg
Time: 40:15
Length: 13.65 km
Elevation Change: 1141 m
Gradient: 8.4%
Power output: 6-6.2 watts/kg (range depends on wind. 6 w/kg with no wind and 6.2 w/kg with some head wind)
VAM: 6 watts/kg

Dumoulin:
69 kg
Time: 40:39
Length: 13.65 km
Elevation Change: 1141 m
Gradient: 8.4%
Power output: 5.9-6.0 watts/kg (range depends on wind. 6 w/kg with no wind and 6.2 w/kg with some head wind)
VAM: 5.94 watts/kg

Other numbers:
Mechanical loss: 3%
Air density: 1.054 kg/m3
Bike weight: 6.8 kg
Other weight: 0.5 kg

Before anybody ask me any questions, the VAM is an empirical calculation using the Ferrari formula while the other one uses the conservation of energy equation with some assumptions made.
 
Aug 6, 2015
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Re:

Escarabajo said:
Well I calculated some numbers for Blockhauss but did not find anything suspicious on any of the riders to be honest.

Quintana:
58 kg
Time: 40:15
Length: 13.65 km
Elevation Change: 1141 m
Gradient: 8.4%
Power output: 6-6.2 watts/kg (range depends on wind. 6 w/kg with no wind and 6.2 w/kg with some head wind)
VAM: 6 watts/kg

Dumoulin:
69 kg
Time: 40:39
Length: 13.65 km
Elevation Change: 1141 m
Gradient: 8.4%
Power output: 5.9-6.0 watts/kg (range depends on wind. 6 w/kg with no wind and 6.2 w/kg with some head wind)
VAM: 5.94 watts/kg

Other numbers:
Mechanical loss: 3%
Air density: 1.054 kg/m3
Bike weight: 6.8 kg
Other weight: 0.5 kg

Before anybody ask me any questions, the VAM is an empirical calculation using the Ferrari formula while the other one uses the conservation of energy equation with some assumptions made.
quintana's weight is 58? I can't beleive that he has the same weight as porte. i thought his weight was something around 55 kg
 
Rough road surface makes estimations less accurate, but about or a bit above 6 W/kg for the first four over the top. Mind, it was an easy stage at low altitude, but I also think Richie could have gone up faster if it was a MTF.
 
Sep 6, 2016
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Re:

Red Rick said:
Sooooo..

Mont du Chat?
I could be wrong but from what I remember it was ridden in roughly 31 minutes, so around 5.94w/kg. The cn live tracker says the climb began 32 minutes before they reached 25km to go, but the 25km is on the downhill section. Note that this obviously doesn't account for wind, altitude, or drafting. Either way, 6w/kg for 30 minutes in early week 2 doesn't ring the alarm bells for me.
 
Sep 6, 2016
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Re:

Red Rick said:
ammattipyöräily‏
@ammattipyoraily
GC favorites 30:40-30:45 on Mont du Chat. ~1:30 slower than Aru at Criterium du Dauphine. #TDF2017
Saw that and forgot about it. Is 15-20 seconds close enough? :D
 
Properly fast today. Bales only a minute down on Pinot in 2014 (when it was the last climb) and faster than Contador 2010, and a whole two minutes faster than the 2012 sky train in a carbon copy stage. Peyresourde as fast as Conti/Rasmussen, and as fast as 2012 Tour and 2013 Vuelta. Mente average, but tough speeds and tough stage.
 
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