Power Data Estimates for the climbing stages

[42x16ss]

Re: Re:

Minimal gaps to the other though. Entire field was quick today. Short __/ stage after an active recovery sprint stage with Movistar setting a sharp tempo from the bottom of the climb.

Yes, context is king

1999 had everyone going all out to limit time losses to Pantani, no tactics required.

Here's Stage 14 2014:

2007 was a TT

 

[Durden93]

1. 1999: 17:04 Marco Pantani 23.55 km/h
2. 2017: 17:37 Tom Dumoulin 22.82 km/h
3. 2017: 17:40 Ilnur Zakarin 22.75 km/h
4. 2017: 17:46 Mikel Landa 22.63 km/h
5. 1999: 17:50 Laurent Jalabert 22.54 km/h
6. 2017: 17:51 Nairo Quintana 22.52 km/h
7. 1999: 18:04 Gilberto Simoni 22.25 km/h
8. 1999: 18:07 Ivan Gotti 22.19 km/h
9. 1999: 18:07 Daniel Clavero 22.19 km/h
10. 1993: 18:12 Piotr Ugrumov 22.09 km/h
11. 2007: 18:12 Leonardo Piepoli 22.09 km/h
12. 2017: 18:12 Thibaut Pinot 22.09 km/h
13. 1999: 18:13 Nicola Miceli 22.07 km/h
14. 1993: 18:16 Stephen Roche 22.01 km/h
15. 1999: 18:18 Paolo Savoldelli 21.97 km/h
16. 2017: 18:18 Adam Yates 21.97 km/h
17. 2017: 18:20 Vincenzo Nibali 21.93 km/h
18. 2017: 18:20 Franco Pellizotti 21.93 km/h
19. 1993: 18:21 Moreno Argentin 21.91 km/h
20. 1999: 18:23 Andrei Zintchenko 21.87 km/h
21. 2017: 18:23 Steven Kruijswijk 21.87 km/h
22. 2017: 18:23 Tanel Kangert 21.87 km/h
23. 1999: 18:25 Daniele De Paoli 21.83 km/h
24. 1999: 18:26 Davide Rebellin 21.81 km/h
25. 1999: 18:26 Oscar Camenzind 21.81 km/h
26. 1999: 18:26 Massimo Codol 21.81 km/h
27. 2017: 18:27 Domenico Pozzovivo 21.79 km/h
28. 2014: 18:30 Nairo Quintana 21.73 km/h
29. 2007: 18:33 Marzio Bruseghin 21.67 km/h
30. 2014: 18:34 Fabio Aru 21.65 km/h
31. 2014: 18:34 Domenico Pozzovivo 21.65 km/h
32. 1999: 18:37 José Manuel Uria 21.59 km/h
33. 1999: 18:37 Roberto Heras 21.59 km/h
34. 2017: 18:37 Jan Hirt 21.59 km/h
35. 2014: 18:38 Wilco Kelderman 21.57 km/h
36. 2014: 18:38 Rafal Majka 21.57 km/h
37. 1993: 18:42 Claudio Chiappucci 21.50 km/h
38. 1993: 18:45 Pavel Tonkov 21.44 km/h
39. 1993: 18:48 Miguel Indurain 21.38 km/h
40. 2017: 18:49 Sebastien Reichenbach 21.36 km/h
41. 2007: 18:50 Danilo Di Luca 21.35 km/h
42. 2014: 18:50 Wouter Poels 21.35 km/h
43. 2014: 18:50 Cadel Evans 21.35 km/h
44. 2017: 18:51 Patrick Konrad 21.33 km/h
45. 2017: 18:51 Igor Anton 21.33 km/h
46. 2014: 18:55 Rigoberto Uran
47. 2017: 18:56 Rui Costa 21.23 km/h
48. 2017: 18:59 Jan Polanc 21.18 km/h
49. 2017: 18:59 Laurens De Plus 21.18 km/h
50. 2017: 18:59 Bob Jungels 21.18 km/h

So, the gap is 46 seconds from Pantani to Jalabert (1st to 2nd) and 3 from Dumoulin to Zakarin. Gap from Pantani to Gotti/Clavero (5th) is 1:03 and 35 seconds from Dumoulin to Pinot. If the argument is that Tom's gaps are suspicious, then I don't buy it. Obviously the watts are suspicious though.

 

[Durden93]

I can't remember the last time I watched the queen stage of the Giro in full so here's a question: how much do you expect the times on the final climb to be influenced by the previous climbs? 5% slower? 10%? What is usually the pacing strategy here (ie full gas on penultimate climb and survive final climb vs equal effort on both?) Thanks.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

I can't remember the last time I watched the queen stage of the Giro in full so here's a question: how much do you expect the times on the final climb to be influenced by the previous climbs? 5% slower? 10%? What is usually the pacing strategy here (ie full gas on penultimate climb and survive final climb vs equal effort on both?) Thanks.

I think it depends a lot on how hard they're ridden.

In the 2015 Vuelta the Andorra had 5,6W/kg or thereabouts by Aru, whereas the Asturias stage was still around 6,0 and higher than a few uniclimbs

 

[Valv.Piti]

Must have been some very underwhelming w/kg on Stelvio and Pontives after Blockhaus and Oropa.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

high pace from the start, so not much in the tank on the final climb

 

[Red Rick]

Yeah especially Pontives will be very low. Guessing it would be around 5.3 or in that area.

For reference, Valparola last year, which was properly raced, was in the 5.6 area. And when Quintana recked Froome on la Toussuire, that was also around 5.6, but that was after a very long waiting game.

 

[Escarabajo]

Well I calculated some numbers for Blockhauss but did not find anything suspicious on any of the riders to be honest.

Quintana:
58 kg
Time: 40:15
Length: 13.65 km
Elevation Change: 1141 m
Gradient: 8.4%
Power output: 6-6.2 watts/kg (range depends on wind. 6 w/kg with no wind and 6.2 w/kg with some head wind)
VAM: 6 watts/kg

Dumoulin:
69 kg
Time: 40:39
Length: 13.65 km
Elevation Change: 1141 m
Gradient: 8.4%
Power output: 5.9-6.0 watts/kg (range depends on wind. 6 w/kg with no wind and 6.2 w/kg with some head wind)
VAM: 5.94 watts/kg

Other numbers:
Mechanical loss: 3%
Air density: 1.054 kg/m3
Bike weight: 6.8 kg
Other weight: 0.5 kg

Before anybody ask me any questions, the VAM is an empirical calculation using the Ferrari formula while the other one uses the conservation of energy equation with some assumptions made.

 

[portugal11]

Re:

Well I calculated some numbers for Blockhauss but did not find anything suspicious on any of the riders to be honest.

Quintana:
58 kg
Time: 40:15
Length: 13.65 km
Elevation Change: 1141 m
Gradient: 8.4%
Power output: 6-6.2 watts/kg (range depends on wind. 6 w/kg with no wind and 6.2 w/kg with some head wind)
VAM: 6 watts/kg

Dumoulin:
69 kg
Time: 40:39
Length: 13.65 km
Elevation Change: 1141 m
Gradient: 8.4%
Power output: 5.9-6.0 watts/kg (range depends on wind. 6 w/kg with no wind and 6.2 w/kg with some head wind)
VAM: 5.94 watts/kg

Other numbers:
Mechanical loss: 3%
Air density: 1.054 kg/m3
Bike weight: 6.8 kg
Other weight: 0.5 kg

Before anybody ask me any questions, the VAM is an empirical calculation using the Ferrari formula while the other one uses the conservation of energy equation with some assumptions made.

quintana's weight is 58? I can't beleive that he has the same weight as porte. i thought his weight was something around 55 kg

 

[Escarabajo]

Weight for these riders is a mistery. It changes from time to time. This is the one they have reported in the ProcyclingStat site for the Giro.

 

[Red Rick]

No numbers from yesterday?

 

[Netserk]

Rough road surface makes estimations less accurate, but about or a bit above 6 W/kg for the first four over the top. Mind, it was an easy stage at low altitude, but I also think Richie could have gone up faster if it was a MTF.

 

[portugal11]

Aru did 6.23 w/kg

 

[Red Rick]

Ok, so not as impressive as the VAM numbers.

 

[TourOfSardinia]

Aru La Planche des Belles Filles ?

 

[Red Rick]

2 times I've seen thrown around are 16'08 and 16'13". Froome was 16'16 in 2012 and that ascent was ridden harder from the start I think.

Better juice than in 2012 or tailwind lol?

 

[Netserk]

2012 was ridden with Wiggins in mind. Froome could have gone faster if the train was at his disposal.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

2012 was ridden with Wiggins in mind. Froome could have gone faster if the train was at his disposal.

True enough, though I'd guess that the average ascent time was a bit faster today.

 

[Red Rick]

Sooooo..

Mont du Chat?

 

[Durden93]

Re:

Sooooo..

Mont du Chat?

I could be wrong but from what I remember it was ridden in roughly 31 minutes, so around 5.94w/kg. The cn live tracker says the climb began 32 minutes before they reached 25km to go, but the 25km is on the downhill section. Note that this obviously doesn't account for wind, altitude, or drafting. Either way, 6w/kg for 30 minutes in early week 2 doesn't ring the alarm bells for me.

 

[Red Rick]

ammattipyöräily‏
@ammattipyoraily
GC favorites 30:40-30:45 on Mont du Chat. ~1:30 slower than Aru at Criterium du Dauphine. #TDF2017

 

[Durden93]

Re:

ammattipyöräily‏
@ammattipyoraily
GC favorites 30:40-30:45 on Mont du Chat. ~1:30 slower than Aru at Criterium du Dauphine. #TDF2017

Saw that and forgot about it. Is 15-20 seconds close enough?

 

[Escarabajo]

Well they have to wait for the leader that wanted to have a cup of coffee!!

 

[Brullnux]

Properly fast today. Bales only a minute down on Pinot in 2014 (when it was the last climb) and faster than Contador 2010, and a whole two minutes faster than the 2012 sky train in a carbon copy stage. Peyresourde as fast as Conti/Rasmussen, and as fast as 2012 Tour and 2013 Vuelta. Mente average, but tough speeds and tough stage.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

How fast was Bales compared to 2007 (T.Dekker on full blood transfusion enriched EPO blood)?