Power Data Estimates for the climbing stages

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Still better than Quintana in 2018.
And a lot better than anybody else, including Thomas, Roglic, Froome, Dumoulin, etc.
But quintana did the climb alone. It's a great difference, so quintana's performance in 2018 is probably similar to pogacar and vingegaard today.
Froome were tired after making 4 consecutive tours.
Roglic of today is very better than roglic of 2018, so i believe that he could follow today pogacar and vingegaard.
 
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Bernal did 6.2w/kg for 40m on Zoncolan, it'll be nice to see him vs Pogacar next year hopefully
We are going to see pogacar vs bernal vs roglic on la vuelta 2020.
I think pogacar his a more complete rider than bernal, so in my opinion, the only man that can beat pogacar is roglic.
 
Yes but that translates to ~ 400 watts for the 66 kg Pogacar. How does this beat the > 500 w 83 kg Kung in a flat TT?
In TT Aero is the King (hehe). I know guys who can do 49km/h flat TT's with barely 300W average power. Being world class time trialist doesn't necessarily require huge power.

PS: and obviously Pogacar has both, great aero and huge power (~420W?)...
 
In TT Aero is the King (hehe). I know guys who can do 49km/h flat TT's with barely 300W average power. Being world class time trialist doesn't necessarily require huge power.

PS: and obviously Pogacar has both, great aero and huge power (~420W?)...
Jumbo guys said Roglic averaged 5.4 in the Vuelta TT he won in 2019, so aero wats are quite a bit different.
 
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They also had the Porte d'Aspin before these two climbs in 2003, then Ullrich attacking midway through Tourmalet, hence basically no train/teammate assisted riding on half of the Tourmalet and of course the crash on Ardiden that probably cost around 30-45 seconds (not the crash itself, but the sitting up, all coming together etc.).
 
Today they pretty clearly had a tailwind on both the Tourmalet and Luz Ardiden, but hard to imagine a 47 minute Tourmalet and 35 minute Luz + crash without great wind either.

I do think the group staying together that long on Luz was a pretty clear indicator of really poor pacing up until the 4km to go mark.
 
The 2003 comparison is a lot of fun for obvious reasons and well worth a look on youtube for those who haven't seen it - that stage was full gas for a long time before Luz, and they still went from the bottom once they got there. The crash and the waiting is like the cherry on the cake for the a vs. b comparisons we all like to make.
 
Today they pretty clearly had a tailwind on both the Tourmalet and Luz Ardiden, but hard to imagine a 47 minute Tourmalet and 35 minute Luz + crash without great wind either.

I do think the group staying together that long on Luz was a pretty clear indicator of really poor pacing up until the 4km to go mark.
It could be local wind patterns, but it's about a 90 degrees change in general direction of travel between Tourmalet and most of Luz Ardiden, so any tailwind felt on the Tourmalet would likely only be felt during the last 5.5km or so.

Interesting comparison vs 2011 and 2001 as well even considering that both of those stages also had 1 climb more an the 2011 stage was substantially longer.
 
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considering armstrongs crash and almost crash, Pogacar would be about 30-45 seconds slower, then again TGH did a really poor job pacing at the front before Majka retired him, but pogacar definitely could go sub 35 minutes
Pogacar could go in less than 35 min, but armstrong lost almost 1 min when he fall, and he did almost alone the climb. And the tarmac is new in some sectors.
But armstrong had other advantages if you know what i mean.
Probably pogacar could've done a similar time to armstrong even with the "advantages" armstrong had.
 
Pogacar could go in less than 35 min, but armstrong lost almost 1 min when he fall, and he did almost alone the climb. And the tarmac is new in some sectors.
But armstrong had other advantages if you know what i mean.
Probably pogacar could've done a similar time to armstrong even with the "advantages" armstrong had.
Armstrong was up and going in about 25 seconds from his fall. And even with unclipping he made it back in a bit over 90 seconds from the moment he was back moving after the fall.

It's also interesting to note that a bunch of people a minute+ back over the Tourmalet made it back on the descent. Arguably with Ullrich's attack neutralized there was no need to go full gas on the way down, but I would guess that it's reasonably likely that the 2003 Tourmalet top - Luz Ardiden start segment was slower for Armstrong than it was for Pogacar in 2021.
 
They also had the Porte d'Aspin before these two climbs in 2003, then Ullrich attacking midway through Tourmalet, hence basically no train/teammate assisted riding on half of the Tourmalet and of course the crash on Ardiden that probably cost around 30-45 seconds (not the crash itself, but the sitting up, all coming together etc.).
Wow they really did fly back in the day when you put all of that together and they still could not beat the time today.
 

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