Power Data Estimates for the climbing stages

[Pirazziattacks]

Because what matters is w/kg.

Where did you get this from- Zwift?

 

[Netserk]

Today they pretty clearly had a tailwind on both the Tourmalet and Luz Ardiden, but hard to imagine a 47 minute Tourmalet and 35 minute Luz + crash without great wind either.

I do think the group staying together that long on Luz was a pretty clear indicator of really poor pacing up until the 4km to go mark.

Luz-Ardiden is no Ventoux, wind doesn't make the same difference. And you have the wrong wind direction.

This spot is here. Check out with the map of Ardiden. North(NW) is not a tailwind.

 

[Red Rick]

Luz-Ardiden is no Ventoux, wind doesn't make the same difference. And you have the wrong wind direction.

This spot is here. Check out with the map of Ardiden. North is not a tailwind.

Flags seemed to be blowing with the riders on most of the climb, but that's just my anecdotal information. I do think wind can be important on many climbs, especially when it follows the same direction for the majority of it like the Tourmalet.

That said, I doubt it was enough to explain minutes of difference, and the advantage was probably wasted by suboptimal pacing anyway. I think they went TGH pace for way too long there. Being choo choo trained for 80% of the climb doesn't make a climb fast if the domestique isn't in the top 15 climbers in the race.

 

[Netserk]

Flags seemed to be blowing with the riders on most of the climb, but that's just my anecdotal information. I do think wind can be important on many climbs, especially when it follows the same direction for the majority of it like the Tourmalet.

That said, I doubt it was enough to explain minutes of difference, and the advantage was probably wasted by suboptimal pacing anyway. I think they went TGH pace for way too long there. Being choo choo trained for 80% of the climb doesn't make a climb fast if the domestique isn't in the top 15 climbers in the race.

You are welcome to show a spot where the wind is from the direction that is predominately tailwind for the whole climb.

Here you have a map of the ascent:

It would make more sense to say they had a headwind. But I doubt it made any noticeable difference for the ascent time.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Wow they really did fly back in the day when you put all of that together and they still could not beat the time today.

The Postal trainwas also different than the classic skytrain. A lot more stop and go rather than riding a constant pace to hurt the diesel climbers who could keep up with Lance in the TTs, Ulle is the prime example.

 

[Arked]

You are welcome to show a spot where the wind is from the direction that is predominately tailwind for the whole climb.

Here you have a map of the ascent:

It would make more sense to say they had a headwind. But I doubt it made any noticeable difference for the ascent time.

The funny thing is that in summer, when it is hot or warm, you often get uphill winds during the day (anabatic winds, valley breezes) . So you get tailwind regardless of direction.

 

[will-10]

The funny thing is that in summer, when it is hot or warm, you often get uphill winds during the day (anabatic winds, mountain breezes) . So you get tailwind regardless of direction.

There's been a lot of that about since we started racing again last year

 

[Riek s]

There's been a lot of that about since we started racing again last year

Convenient that we are in a global warming period

 

[VeloMaster]

Where did you get this from- Zwift?

Why is this so hard to understand? W/kg are a useful metric UPHILL, but a lot less predictive on a FLAT TT. That's because gravity's effect on the climbs is directly proportional to weight, which is easily measured.

On the flats, the important metric is CdA, or coefficient of aerodynamic drag, a much. more elusive number, shaped by weight but also body position, equipment, riding style. W/kg has very little to offer here, especially for fit professionals on the best equipment.

This is what drives me crazy on Zwift. I am 66kg, so my w/kg have to be that much higher to keep up with a ride leader who weights 85 kg and keeps to the advertised pace of 3/2 w/kg.
Do the math and you'll see why some of us are skeptical when light climbers beat powerful TT specialists.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1427308202392231938

View: https://twitter.com/ammattipyoraily/status/1427308202392231938

 

[Netserk]

If they had a tailwind there like in 2020, I guess they would have gone all out and been a minute faster.

 

[Red Rick]

If they had a tailwind there like in 2020, I guess they would have gone all out and been a minute faster.

I think the difference would be a lot bigger

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Certainly puts Evenepoel's now broken climbing record in perspective. He still dropped Landa then, but 2021 Vuelta level >>> 2020 Burgos level it looks like.

Movistar looking mad suspect.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1427342869010976768

View: https://twitter.com/ammattipyoraily/status/1427342869010976768

 

[Froome]

So ....remco's performance on picon blanco was just a reasonable performance?

 

[SafeBet]

The surprising part to me was how many riders were within the new record time.

8 riders were faster than Remco's record (including Valverde who pulled for the last 1,5 km of the climb).
12 riders were faster than Landa/Superman previous record, including Fabio Aru of all people.
Padun was reasonably close to that time after pulling for half the climb and reeling in a few attacks.

 

[Red Rick]

The surprising part to me was how many riders were within the new record time.

8 riders were faster than Remco's record (including Valverde who pulled for the last 1,5 km of the climb).
12 riders were faster than Landa/Superman previous record, including Fabio Aru of all people.
Padun was reasonably close to that time after pulling for half the climb and reeling in a few attacks.

Prep race vs GT level tbh.

I last year GC went about 2 full minutes faster than in the Tour than in l'Ain

And it had been a really slow day in the saddle, so they got to the bottom really really fresh.

I have never done math on wind and how it affects climbing times, and if it's much different on steep climbs vs flatter climbs tbh.

 

[roundabout]

In a 1 m/s headwind vs no headwind on a hypothetical 9.48% climb done at average speed of 18.5 km/h the power has to be about 0.2 W/kg higher to do the same time. And I guess speed-wise with no headwind, a rider doing 0.2 W/kg more would be about 0.5 km/h faster, or time-wise about 45 seconds faster on Picon Blanco.

Obviously very approximate.

And obviously there is no way of knowing what the average headwind was for the duration of the climb in all attempts.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Maybe it's just that he still isn't used to racing in Europe (he only started racing 2 years ago an it's the first few months of racing in Europe for him), but until now Pira's climbing performances in Europe are nothing compared to what he did in the Vuelta a Colombia.
On the Alto de Linea stage he put over 1min into everyone else.
The stage:

According to his Stava he did the final climb, 22.65km a 6.2% in 1:01:16, with a VAM of 1385.
The climb starts at around 1830m and tops at 3271m of altitude, if you consider the altitude it's a realy impessive perfomance.
Source: https://www.strava.com/activities/5163041068/segments/2819695109590868404

I haven't done any calculations, but to me that looks like a high level performance, if you consider the fact that he put over 1min into Juan Pablo Suarez and Tito Hernandez and over 2min into Sevilla.

 

[Red Rick]

Maybe it's just that he still isn't used to racing in Europe (he only started racing 2 years ago an it's the first few months of racing in Europe for him), but until now Pira's climbing performances in Europe are nothing compared to what he did in the Vuelta a Colombia.
On the Alto de Linea stage he put over 1min into everyone else.
The stage:

According to his Stava he did the final climb, 22.65km a 6.2% in 1:01:16, with a VAM of 1385.
The climb starts at around 1830m and tops at 3271m of altitude, if you consider the altitude it's a realy impessive perfomance.
Source: https://www.strava.com/activities/5163041068/segments/2819695109590868404

I haven't done any calculations, but to me that looks like a high level performance, if you consider the fact that he put over 1min into Juan Pablo Suarez and Tito Hernandez and over 2min into Sevilla.

Do we have a power estimate of that 2020 Colombia MTF that was an easy climb at 3000m+?

Edit: Bernal was 1380 on Alto del Verjon in Colombia 2020 but that's higher on average, lower average gradient, and that has some descending in it.

Anyway my gut says it's not very high. Bernal was 1600+ VAM on Iseran, and briefly checking the Strava file from the Taiwan KOM Strava record I'm seeing 1250+ VAM right to the very top from non WT riders.

Nibali didn't upload his Strava file from the time he did that, sadly.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Do we have a power estimate of that 2020 Colombia MTF that was an easy climb at 3000m+?

Edit: Bernal was 1380 on Alto del Verjon in Colombia 2020 but that's higher on average, lower average gradient, and that has some descending in it.

Anyway my gut says it's not very high. Bernal was 1600+ VAM on Iseran, and briefly checking the Strava file from the Taiwan KOM Strava record I'm seeing 1250+ VAM right to the very top from non WT riders.

Nibali didn't upload his Strava file from the time he did that, sadly.

On the final 12.13kms of the climb (the average gradient is 7.2%) Pira did a VAM of almost 1500 on a climb that tops 500m above the Iseran, I say that's probably a pretty good performance for a younger rider. Pira also only started racing during the November of 2019.
We'll see if h can repeat this kind of prformace in Europe.
https://www.strava.com/activities/5163041068/segments/2819695109592137140

 

[Red Rick]

2nd big MTF in the Vuelta, 2nd record.

Lagos de Covadonga should be very interesting for comparison.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1429472347619303436

View: https://twitter.com/ammattipyoraily/status/1429472347619303436

 

[Mayomaniac]

2nd big MTF in the Vuelta, 2nd record.

Lagos de Covadonga should be very interesting for comparison.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1429472347619303436

View: https://twitter.com/ammattipyoraily/status/1429472347619303436

Only a few seconds faster than Gesink and Mosquera in 2009. A high level performance if you consider the heat, but not out of this world for a 33min climb that tops at under 1800m of altitude.

 

[Red Rick]

Only a few seconds faster than Gesink and Mosquera in 2009. A high level performance if you consider the heat, but not out of this world for a 33min climb that tops at under 1800m of altitude.

I think it's decent considering the heat, the overall pace of the stage and considering the amount of time they messed around.

 

[Red Rick]

Hope we get some numbers for today, this should've been a pretty good one.

 

[Red Rick]

Rogl: Stomped

https://twitter.com/x/status/1430260503646019584

View: https://twitter.com/ammattipyoraily/status/1430260503646019584