Power Data Estimates for the climbing stages

[Red Rick]

Their formula is trash. Overcomplicated but also fails to address the problem of massive weight differences between riders because their standardization method is a joke.

They claim that standardization is the point somehow.

But what gets me most is when they get super eager to adjust for drafting to give Evenepoel the highest W/kg when he got dropped. Then in another calculation thy forget details like not even getting climbing times right on Val Louron because they ignore that McNulty got dropped towards the end.

 

[Red Rick]

Do they standardise CdA?

I think they do.

IMO there's a lot you can do with data, and there are definitely interesting ideas to get from it but they way oversell the importance of pure climbing numbers.

 

[Netserk]

They claim that standardization is the point somehow.

Well, I buy that. I'm not interested in what their power meter says, I'm interested in the performance.

 

[Red Rick]

Well, I buy that. I'm not interested in what their power meter says, I'm interested in the performance.

It just gets more confusing to me, it's and adjustment that's unnecessary.

And I think they standardize for 60kg, which basically tells you they just do it to make the number look higher.

 

[Cookster15]

Not sure why they bother standardising watts per kilo? It’s a simple formula no need to muddy the waters.

 

[PhiLiz]

Do they standardise CdA?

They go into detail here: https://lanternerouge.com/2023/02/07/watts-primer/

I'm not fully sure about what they do for CdA but to be honest, that's a detail when compared with the rest of the clown show going on with their "calculations".

 

[Mayomaniac]

I think overall the watts in this Giro where rather tame. Yeah, Tre Cime was a new record, but unlike 2007 and 2013 they had really nice weather and nothing happened until Cortina (on the 2016 Corvara stage they raced the Giau 2:30 faster, also as the penultimate climb and further away from the finish line and in 2007 Di Luca went 2min faster on the Giau before Tre Cime). I think overall the horrible weather for 2 weeks took a bit of a toll on the riders and they weren't really able to keep their powder dry for the high mountains. I mean, look a how fast 7 riders climbed Monte Baldo in the TotA, that was a high level climbing performance.

 

[Netserk]

Bondone was the first full gas ascent. But from that side it's hard to compare with other performances.

 

[Red Rick]

I think overall the watts in this Giro where rather tame. Yeah, Tre Cime was a new record, but unlike 2007 and 2013 they had really nice weather and nothing happened until Cortina (on the 2016 Corvara stage they raced the Giau 2:30 faster, also as the penultimate climb and further away from the finish line and in 2007 Di Luca went 2min faster on the Giau before Tre Cime). I think overall the horrible weather for 2 weeks took a bit of a toll on the riders and they weren't really able to keep their powder dry for the high mountains. I mean, look a how fast 7 riders climbed Monte Baldo in the TotA, that was a high level climbing performance.

I honestly already think 2013 is an outdated era for watts comparisons anyway. And >2000m average altitude makes it very hard to compare in general to other climbs. My guess it's up there with last years Fedaia. Fedaia had similar W/kg estimates for 4 more minutes, but it's lower and overall a much easier stage.

 

[Mayomaniac]

I honestly already think 2013 is an outdated era for watts comparisons anyway. And >2000m average altitude makes it very hard to compare in general to other climbs. My guess it's up there with last years Fedaia. Fedaia had similar W/kg estimates for 4 more minutes, but it's lower and overall a much easier stage.

Yeah, apples and oranges.
That said, an over 36min Giau ascent is the slowest Giau ascent that we have seen this century, that probably played a big part.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Bondone was the first full gas ascent. But from that side it's hard to compare with other performances.

Also a really long effort, like 54min. You probably need something like Ventoux to compare it to (length and altitude wise), but Ventoux is always a nightmare to compare to other climbs because it's just so exposed to the wind.

 

[Red Rick]

Also a really long effort, like 54min. You probably need something like Ventoux to compare it to (length and altitude wise), but Ventoux is always a nightmare to compare to other climbs because it's just so exposed to the wind.

>50 minute climbs that are paced hard from bottom to top are pretty rare in the first place. But the fact that it had large patches of flat or near flat just makes it really bad for a direct comparison.

Col de La Loze and Gamoniteiru were both more than 5.9 IIRC, as awas the much higher Col de Portet, even if that one was like 48 minutes.

 

[Andy schleck]

They claim that standardization is the point somehow.

But what gets me most is when they get super eager to adjust for drafting to give Evenepoel the highest W/kg when he got dropped. Then in another calculation thy forget details like not even getting climbing times right on Val Louron because they ignore that McNulty got dropped towards the end.

It doesn't matter if remco is dropped or not. Naichaca is a fanboy of remco, so he always finds a way to put remco with a highest w/kg.

 

[Andy schleck]

It just gets more confusing to me, it's and adjustment that's unnecessary.

And I think they standardize for 60kg, which basically tells you they just do it to make the number look higher.

They standardize for 60 kg, ammattipyoraily to 65 kg, but when they calculate for climbs above 30 min, the results of w/kg are similar to the results of ammattipyoraily.
They said that vingegaard did 6.3 w/kg hautacam, the same result that ammattipyoraily calculated. It doesn't make sense if the standardization is different.

 

[zlev11]

They standardize for 60 kg, ammattipyoraily to 65 kg, but when they calculate for climbs above 30 min, the results of w/kg are similar to the results of ammattipyoraily.
They said that vingegaard did 6.3 w/kg hautacam, the same result that ammattipyoraily calculated. It doesn't make sense if the standardization is different.

because for longer efforts the difference in weight matters less. the main reason a 60kg rider would have to do a higher w/kg than a 65kg rider is because the weight of the bikes are the same, but the percentage of total weight of the bike for a lighter rider is greater. as the distances get longer the w/kg estimates get closer together. so maybe the 60kg rider does 6.3 and the 65kg rider does 6.28 or something. ultimately the estimate is not trying to be *exact* because it doesn't need to be, it is just a ballpark number to try to see how fast the climb was and how it compares to similar efforts historically.

 

[Andy schleck]

because for longer efforts the difference in weight matters less. the main reason a 60kg rider would have to do a higher w/kg than a 65kg rider is because the weight of the bikes are the same, but the percentage of total weight of the bike for a lighter rider is greater. as the distances get longer the w/kg estimates get closer together. so maybe the 60kg rider does 6.3 and the 65kg rider does 6.28 or something. ultimately the estimate is not trying to be *exact* because it doesn't need to be, it is just a ballpark number to try to see how fast the climb was and how it compares to similar efforts historically.

Thanks for the explanation.

 

[PhiLiz]

because for longer efforts the difference in weight matters less. the main reason a 60kg rider would have to do a higher w/kg than a 65kg rider is because the weight of the bikes are the same, but the percentage of total weight of the bike for a lighter rider is greater. as the distances get longer the w/kg estimates get closer together. so maybe the 60kg rider does 6.3 and the 65kg rider does 6.28 or something. ultimately the estimate is not trying to be *exact* because it doesn't need to be, it is just a ballpark number to try to see how fast the climb was and how it compares to similar efforts historically.

Exactly how does that work?

Because even LR explanation doesn't mention any of that.

 

[Red Rick]

Exactly how does that work?

Because even LR explanation doesn't mention any of that.

LR heavily emphasize drafting. Sometimes. When they want to emphasize it. And then sometimes they completely ignore drafting when they're lazy. I think that's a pretty big explanation of some of their very high estimates. And some headwind numbers. I can recall at least 3 different climbs where they gave Evenepoel the highest W/kg despite getting dropped, including Sierra Nevada which where he dropped like 45 seconds.

 

[Andy schleck]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1666854339263049752

View: https://twitter.com/ammattipyoraily/status/1666854339263049752

 

[proffate]

Jonas Vingegaard Dominant Performance at Altitude | Critérium du Dauphiné Stage 7 2023 - Lanterne Rouge

Jonas Vingegaard is unstoppable and continues to dominate at the Critérium du Dauphiné in advance of the Tour de France. Today on Stage 7, the Dane dropped Adam Yates and his rivals early at the base of the steep section of Col de la Croix de Fer, which topped out at over 2000 metres above sea...

lanternerouge.com

When adjusting Vingegaard's performance to sea level, his effort today would be equal to 7.18 ᵉW/Kg

For 18 minutes.

 

[Andy schleck]

Jonas Vingegaard Dominant Performance at Altitude | Critérium du Dauphiné Stage 7 2023 - Lanterne Rouge

Jonas Vingegaard is unstoppable and continues to dominate at the Critérium du Dauphiné in advance of the Tour de France. Today on Stage 7, the Dane dropped Adam Yates and his rivals early at the base of the steep section of Col de la Croix de Fer, which topped out at over 2000 metres above sea...

lanternerouge.com

For 18 minutes.

I don't want to be disrespectfull for pogacar, but like i said, Vingegaard will lose this tour only if he crashes. There will be no chance in the long climbs. Jumbo created a monster for long climbs.

 

[Nick2413]

Jonas Vingegaard Dominant Performance at Altitude | Critérium du Dauphiné Stage 7 2023 - Lanterne Rouge

Jonas Vingegaard is unstoppable and continues to dominate at the Critérium du Dauphiné in advance of the Tour de France. Today on Stage 7, the Dane dropped Adam Yates and his rivals early at the base of the steep section of Col de la Croix de Fer, which topped out at over 2000 metres above sea...

lanternerouge.com

For 18 minutes.

Those adjusted calculations take it a bit too far. They’re extrapolating extrapolations of extrapolations. Did they factor in the 8W (.13W/kg) he saved by lower air resistance at altitude, or what his ambient body weight was? Huge regardless though.

 

[proffate]

Those adjusted calculations take it a bit too far. They’re extrapolating extrapolations of extrapolations. Did they factor in the 8W (.13W/kg) he saved by lower air resistance at altitude, or what his ambient body weight was? Huge regardless though.

The biggest question mark hanging over the altitude adjusted numbers is the individual response to altitude. Colombians clearly have an advantage there, as do sherpas (although we haven't got a sherpa on a bike yet AFAIK). My experience tells me that even within individuals of European descent, there's a lot of variation in terms of altitude response. But we can say that Vingo is doing at 2000m what very few in the peloton can muster even at sea level.

 

[Red Rick]

Those adjusted calculations take it a bit too far. They’re extrapolating extrapolations of extrapolations. Did they factor in the 8W (.13W/kg) he saved by lower air resistance at altitude, or what his ambient body weight was? Huge regardless though.

Ofcourse they didn't.

 

[Andy schleck]

The biggest question mark hanging over the altitude adjusted numbers is the individual response to altitude. Colombians clearly have an advantage there, as do sherpas (although we haven't got a sherpa on a bike yet AFAIK). My experience tells me that even within individuals of European descent, there's a lot of variation in terms of altitude response. But we can say that Vingo is doing at 2000m what very few in the peloton can muster even at sea level.

Vingegaard is better than the colombians in the altitude.