Predict the Top 5 GC in Tour de France

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It is impossible to predict something like that, becouse thare are a lot of factors, specially luck, that counts.
You can predict the 5 strong roders, but no more...

Porte was one of the favourites of this Giro, he was strong, saving enegy for this final, he did everything well, but he is out of the race... similar for Rigo, Pozzovivo...
I think should be
Froome
Quintana
Uran
Nibali
Pinot
Purito
Contador
Valverde

But if some of them are not for the podium, they are not to figh for GC.
Purito
 
Dec 8, 2012
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Rolland
Porte
Peraud
Talansky
Van Garderen

The big 4 will lose too much time from penalties meted out for swapping wheels with Tony Martin at the start of Stage 2 after he fails to win in Utrecht due to falling into a manhole, the cover of which had been removed by one of Team Sky's shape-shifting soigneurs
 
May 27, 2015
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Re: Re:

WheelofGear said:
Jalgratas95 said:
SafeBet said:
Quintana
Froome
Pinot
Kelderman
Contador

Nibali with is downhill riding skills will surely finish ahead of Pinot (I admire Pinot but his downhill riding is... ).
Pinot has become a somewhat good descender over the years and there is only one "Mountain Down Finish". It doesn't really matter in this Tour.

Nibali is probably the best descender right now I think. But yes it probably depends of route and stage profile.
 
Re: Re:

Jalgratas95 said:
SafeBet said:
Quintana
Froome
Pinot
Kelderman
Contador

Nibali with is downhill riding skills will surely finish ahead of Pinot (I admire Pinot but his downhill riding is... ).

Let me fill in the gaps for you

his downhill riding is improved

This is only a guess a top 5 and obviously casn be effected by many factors

1. Froome
2. Quintana
3. Contador
4. Porte
5. Nibali

only Joking about number 4
 
May 27, 2015
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del1962 said:
Jalgratas95 said:
SafeBet said:
Quintana
Froome
Pinot
Kelderman
Contador

Nibali with is downhill riding skills will surely finish ahead of Pinot (I admire Pinot but his downhill riding is... ).

Let me fill in the gaps for you

his downhill riding is improved

This is only a guess a top 5 and obviously casn be effected by many factors

1. Froome
2. Quintana
3. Contador
4. Porte
5. Nibali

only Joking about number 4

Has improved but Nibali is the best when it comes to descents. I watched last year Tour and Pinot still had trouble with staying in groups. He tried to go over the hill first and during descent fell through the group.
 
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Velolover2 said:
LaFlorecita said:
1 Contador
2 Froome
3 Quintana
4 Pinot
5 Valverde
Nibali will abandon

I was thinking the same. The guy has the weakest "punch" of the 4. I think he will lose 20 seconds on Mur de Huy, failing to win it back on the cobbles and then another 20 seconds on Bretagne. In the first mountain stage, he will lose over a minute and call it a quit.
If he loses time in Huy he can bring it back on the cobbles. Didn't you see laat year. He now has Boom on his team, plus Lutshenko looked wonderful this year at the RVV.
 
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WheelofGear said:
Majka has to be the most one of the most overrated riders in the world. How in any world is he better than Pinot, Nibali or Bardet? In 2013 he had a very good giro, 6th. In 2014 he should've improved, but didn't,finished behind Aru, Quintana. In the Tour somehow he pulled off 2 stages, that surspised me but at least one of them was from a breakaway. My prediction:
1.Quintana
2.Froome
3.Nibali
4.AC
5.Pozzo/Pinot
If Quintana loses little time in the opening week then he will do well. In Vuelta last year he looked good before crashing, on par with AC and stronger then Froome. Admittedly, both were off form but so was Quintana. Froome will lose time on some of the uphill sprints and in the stage to Pra-Loup, Cauterets and Stage 18. Nibali will lose time in any big MTF, but make strong attacks in the stages mentioned above. AC will be too tired in the third week from what has been a difficult, fast Giro. He will join Nibali's attacks but be too tired. Pinot probably for 5th, but Pozzovivo if he is in form will take 5th.
 
Jul 29, 2012
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I'm not saying Majka will top 5 the tour, but overrated? He was clearly the 2nd best climber of the tour last year.
 
Re: Re:

WheelofGear said:
Brullnux said:
WheelofGear said:
Majka has to be the most one of the most overrated riders in the world. How in any world is he better than Pinot, Nibali or Bardet? In 2013 he had a very good giro, 6th. In 2014 he should've improved, but didn't,finished behind Aru, Quintana. In the Tour somehow he pulled off 2 stages, that surspised me but at least one of them was from a breakaway. My prediction:
1.Quintana
2.Froome
3.Nibali
4.AC
5.Pozzo/Pinot
If Quintana loses little time in the opening week then he will do well. In Vuelta last year he looked good before crashing, on par with AC and stronger then Froome. Admittedly, both were off form but so was Quintana. Froome will lose time on some of the uphill sprints and in the stage to Pra-Loup, Cauterets and Stage 18. Nibali will lose time in any big MTF, but make strong attacks in the stages mentioned above. AC will be too tired in the third week from what has been a difficult, fast Giro. He will join Nibali's attacks but be too tired. Pinot probably for 5th, but Pozzovivo if he is in form will take 5th.

You're seriously dumb if you think "the big 4" all will finish in top 5, mr. Degenkolb-can-win-Fleche-Wallone newb.
Ok I admit Degenkolb will never win La Flèche, but Amstel is certainly a possibility, I was just trying to make a point about the new breed of super-sprinters like Degenkolb, Kristoff, Sagan and Matthews.

I think all 4 will finish in the top 5 because likelihood is it will be a fairly conservative race. Also, these 4 riders are a class above the rest, this Giro has proved it, even Nibali and Quintana are a class above the everyone bar AC + Froome. There aren't many people to challenge them, and my gut instinct is none of them will crash really badly, maybe like AC in this Giro, but this isn't as unpredictable as the Giro. Unless Pinot is able to pull back 8 minutes in 1 year, then I doubt anyone, bar Lady Luck, can challenge them.
 
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Miburo said:
I'm not saying Majka will top 5 the tour, but overrated? He was clearly the 2nd best climber of the tour last year.
He was one of the best climbers in 2014.

If Contador fails to deliver, they always have a plan-B. The only thing I'm sure is that Nibali is about to get his ass kicked.

He will not gain time on the cobbles this year. There are less of them and it's most likely dry. Same as when people said that Uran will destroy anyone in the TT.

This route is for puncheur-climbers. I wouldn't be surprised to see Dan Martin in top 5.
 
Re: Re:

Brullnux said:
WheelofGear said:
Brullnux said:
WheelofGear said:
Majka has to be the most one of the most overrated riders in the world. How in any world is he better than Pinot, Nibali or Bardet? In 2013 he had a very good giro, 6th. In 2014 he should've improved, but didn't,finished behind Aru, Quintana. In the Tour somehow he pulled off 2 stages, that surspised me but at least one of them was from a breakaway. My prediction:
1.Quintana
2.Froome
3.Nibali
4.AC
5.Pozzo/Pinot
If Quintana loses little time in the opening week then he will do well. In Vuelta last year he looked good before crashing, on par with AC and stronger then Froome. Admittedly, both were off form but so was Quintana. Froome will lose time on some of the uphill sprints and in the stage to Pra-Loup, Cauterets and Stage 18. Nibali will lose time in any big MTF, but make strong attacks in the stages mentioned above. AC will be too tired in the third week from what has been a difficult, fast Giro. He will join Nibali's attacks but be too tired. Pinot probably for 5th, but Pozzovivo if he is in form will take 5th.

You're seriously dumb if you think "the big 4" all will finish in top 5, mr. Degenkolb-can-win-Fleche-Wallone newb.
Ok I admit Degenkolb will never win La Flèche, but Amstel is certainly a possibility, I was just trying to make a point about the new breed of super-sprinters like Degenkolb, Kristoff, Sagan and Matthews.

I think all 4 will finish in the top 5 because likelihood is it will be a fairly conservative race. Also, these 4 riders are a class above the rest, this Giro has proved it, even Nibali and Quintana are a class above the everyone bar AC + Froome. There aren't many people to challenge them, and my gut instinct is none of them will crash really badly, maybe like AC in this Giro, but this isn't as unpredictable as the Giro. Unless Pinot is able to pull back 8 minutes in 1 year, then I doubt anyone, bar Lady Luck, can challenge them.

The thing is, cycling is not like tennis. Making a conservative bet that "the big 4" all will be in top 5 is very, very unlikely. There is not room enough for so many rivals. We saw that in the Giro. Only Contador looked good while the rest of the favorites were either unlucky (Porte), sick (Uran) or suffering (Aru).

There is really only room for two or three rivals and a handful of underdogs. I think that Nibali will fail badly this year.
 
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Miburo said:
I'm not saying Majka will top 5 the tour, but overrated? He was clearly the 2nd best climber of the tour last year.
2nd best in the Tour probably, but the field was weak - Nibali was almost 8 minutes ahead of anyone ,and that's Nibali, but he was the 7th or 8th best in the Giro. IMO he is better than Kelderman, but not as good as Landa, Aru or Quintana - basing this against people of his generation.
 
1. Quintana (hard to say how he will do in the first week, but the fact that there is no long ITT and many mtf´s will help him)
2. Froome (he will be very strong again but to be honest, I haven't seen the mutant froome of 2013 since last years dauphine. He always had bad days since then, but in most cases he just set his own pace and gave a f*** about the others, so he didn't loose so much time. However this year he might fight against a super strong quintana/contador/nibali/valverde/... so I doubt that he won't loose time in such cases --> only my nr.2)
3. Contador (he was my nr 1 but I then started to remember the tdf 2011. He also tried the double in that year but then he just wasn't as strong as everyone expected. I could imagine something like that happens again, this year)
4. Nibali (If I think about this years tour he doesn't come to my mind immediately although he controlled last years edition. The reason for that is probably that he hasn't achieved so much since 1,5 years except the tdf. However nibali didn't do so well last spring too but than he was great in july. He is pretty hard to predict but I think his chances might be bigger than most people think.)
5.) Valverde (As I already posted in the "Tour de France 2015 route" thread he has the chance to win 3 stages in the first week which means that he could be 30 seconds in front of the other contenders because of time bonifications. Moreover we don't have a long ITT so if Valverde wants to win a tdf in his career this one is probably his best chance. I know that these possible 30 seconds aren't that much but its a good initial position if you consider that he normally has to get the time in the mountains because of his "meh" time trial abilities
 
Apr 9, 2014
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Contador
Nibali
Quintana
Kelderman
Pinot

Froome will either abandon or just bonk hard...whatever comes first I guess