Predict the Top 5 GC in Tour de France

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

He will be strong all three weeks, but he has to take care of himself and use as little energy as he can in the first half, so he has enough energy left to win it in the Alpes. I think he'll ride a good ITT (~5th) and then just follow wheels on the two murs and limit the damages on the cobbles. I don't think there'll be big gaps on PSM, so if he can get the same time as Froome, that'll be fine. PdB is the most crucial mountain imo, I think he'll have to concede time to at least one of his opponents. Mende suits him perfectly, so he'll attack there, and then depending on the situation he'll perhaps do something before the last two mtfs, but if he's in a good position I think he'll boss Alpe.

I hope so

 

[Netserk]

Re: Re:

Okay, maybe sub 39' is more likely

Still a bold statement, my guess is 40+...I want to believe he will have a peak, but actually I do not.

Sastre did 39'30'' in 2008 (sloooow year, I think the general level is higher this year) on a much, much harder stage. Only tactical riding will stop them from going sub-39' imo. I don't think anyone wants to try what Contador did in '11 on Galibier.

 

[The_Cheech]

I think it's almost a must that Alberto revisit the cobblestones and be ready for another full-frontal attack. Astana will attack. They have no reason not to because it worked last year.

If Contador comes out of the cobbles unscathed and with time on the other main contenders, depending how much it is, it can really drastically change how he has to ride the rest of the TdF. And with 1+ minutes on everyone with the mountains ahead... Giro legs or not, it would be very hard for the rest to take the race away from him.

It's an unspoken secret that the TdF is lost, not won, before the mountain stages. If AC can eliminate Quintana on the cobblestones and put time on Froome, these two are going to have to fight to get time back, which means they will have to spend their teams in the effort, which means they will be exposed later on in the race.

 

[Andro]

Re:

That stupid stage 9 ttt is going to ruin one major contender's gc chances. Imagine 3, 4 of their teammates fall in some of the early crashes. Which isn't out of the question. We have seen teams reduced heavily before in the TDF.

They have to do a 30 km tt with 6 riders vs opponents having 9. You end up losing 4 minutes based on something that has absolutely 0 to do with you.

Yeah, this will definitely be a big issue.

The cobbled stage is a guarantee for a lot of crashes. All the teammates of the big GC riders will have to be really careful in all of the stages before the TTT.

If one of Sky/Tinkoff/Movistar/Astana lose 2 or more riders before the TTT there will probably be a big backlash.

 

[bala v]

Re: Re:

The nature of his conviction was such that the benefit he can provide his young companion with is no worse than the benefit unconvicted cheaters in other teams can provide their star riders with.

But that's not what I was talking about, anyway. Having a co-leader/wildcard as strong as Valverde is simply an advantage. Though I guess Astana might yet conjure another Landa out of thin air, and with Froome controlling the angry Tasmanian, it's only Contador who has no one.

I soooooo disagree. Having a guy with his own agenda is not an advantage. Valverde will try to gain time week 1, and force Nairo to play domestique. Think about it: when Piti takes off, the other favorites may let him go, effectively eliminating Quintana from GC contention.

I can't see anyone letting Valverde go in the mountains, especially if he is already in yellow. He's far, far too dangerous to give a few minutes to. I think it would help Quintana more than anything, as Valverde could attack and tire the others out, while Quintana can just climb at his own tempo, following wheels, then pushing hard towards the end of climbs in the high altitude.

Valverde isn't Lance. He's not going to ruthlessly try to turn the team against Quintana and go all out for the GC, even if he holds the yellow jersey. He's already had a great season and if he wins a stage or two and holds yellow in the Tour I think he'd be very content - especially with the chance of doing well at a relatively weak Vuelta later in the year.

First part of your post: wrong. Both will lose time in the ITT, and then at the TTT. After the TTT, both Nairo and Piti will be a good 2-3 minutes behind the likes of Dawg and Il Squalo. Valverde may be 1 minute a head of Quintana, due to bonifs and a better ITT. Knowing that Valverde tends to fade away week 3, and that he can be attacked in the mountains, it is not unthinkable to let him take more time on Nairo, forcing the Colombian to become Piti's super domestique.

Second part: what makes you think Valverde won't? With a course like this and time running out, of course he will. Forget Wonderboy. Before and after him, Hinault not so sure about keeping his promise to Lemond, Dawg attacking and dopping Wiggo, examples abound. Guys at this level have a HUGE ego: that's what gets them there in the first place. He won't be "content" with a couple of stages. His goal is a podium. Remember?

2-3 minutes back!!!? With Malori, Castroviejo, Dowsett in the TTT?! Valverde could actually be in yellow after that stage. Wanna bet?

 

[Miburo]

Cobblestones and TTT could put at least some guys in a terrible and a great spot. If contador is in the great spot, then he has a chance.

Terrible spot? Then it's over

 

[Jagartrott]

Combination cobbles and TTT should favour Nibali most of the favourites.
Froome: unproven on cobbles, but he's not the greatest bike handler. TTT should be (very) good.
Contador: lost minutes on the cobbles last year, but it was wet. TTT should be OK, but perhaps not great.
Quintana: unproven on cobbles, TTT should be good.

 

[Netserk]

Re:

Combination cobbles and TTT should favour Nibali most of the favourites.
Froome: unproven on cobbles, but he's not the greatest bike handler. TTT should be (very) good.
Contador: lost minutes on the cobbles last year, but it was wet. TTT should be OK, but perhaps not great.
Quintana: unproven on cobbles, TTT should be good.

So you think Tinkoff will be the worst of the four in the TTT?

 

[blackmamba]

I disagree there and are pretty sure tinkoff will beat sky for instance on the TTT and be top 3 for sure if they bring the team many specuale they will which are :
AC
Sagan
MAjka
Kiser
Bodnar
Bennati
Rogers
Kreuziger
Valgren

Sagan, Bodnar, Rogers, Bennati, AC, kreuziger + valgren are all very good TTT and sagan, bodnar, bennati, rogers and AC are EXCELLENT at it and the parcour even suits tinkov more than many other teams cause almost every big engine besides maby bennati goes very well uphill aswell. So if you think tinkov will do bad on the TTT your in for a surprise i believe.That team is easy top 3. The big question mark on this team tho is kreuziger and by that I mean wether or not he will actually be there depending on the upcoming hearing etc.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Combination cobbles and TTT should favour Nibali most of the favourites.
Froome: unproven on cobbles, but he's not the greatest bike handler. TTT should be (very) good.
Contador: lost minutes on the cobbles last year, but it was wet. TTT should be OK, but perhaps not great.
Quintana: unproven on cobbles, TTT should be good.

Agree with your summary, especially that Tinkoff could struggle in the TTT. Their main power guys like Rogers, Bodnar and Sagan won't deal as well with the rolling nature of the course as well as the other teams - especially that final climb.

If what you say goes to plan, the GC could look something like this going into the Pyrenees:

1) Valverde
2) Nibali + 20
3) Froome + 1'00
4) Contador + 1'30
5) Quintana +2'00

That would set up the race perfectly.

 

[blackmamba]

Its exactly what their main power guys like rogers and sagan will, deal well with the rolling nature of the course wtf? Stannard skys powers guy for instance cant even compare to sagan when it comes to hilly terain...

 

[Escarabajo]

Tonton, do you think Movistar is sending 9 pure climbers to the Tour?

Have you seen their TT resume for the riders that are going to the Tour?

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Its exactly what their main power guys like rogers and sagan will, deal well with the rolling nature of the course wtf? Stannard skys powers guy for instance cant even compare to sagan when it comes to hilly terain...

Stannard might not even ride for Sky. Their main guys will be Froome, Porte, Thomas, Konig, possibly with Roche and Henao for the final climb. Can't see any of them getting dropped or letting up the pace on the final climb.

Who are the five riders that will make it for Tinkoff without slowing down the whole group? Contador and Kreuziger should be fine. Rogers on past form would be OK, but this season he's been poor. Bodnar could struggle on the last climb - Kiserlovski may make it, but wouldn't contribute anything up until that point. If one or two riders are having a bad day, or have crashed out, they could be in real trouble. The other teams have more of a cushion.

 

[blackmamba]

I dont think you know what sky team is going to the tour cause its not the guys you listed. The dauphine squad minus maby 1 has brailsford said so team skys tour team will be the dauphine squad + 1 or maby 2 others.

Ac, kreuziger, sagan, rogers, majka, valgren + bodnar will all do that final climb well and all of em are excellent TTT riders with alot of power kiserlovski will make it fine but he wont do that big of a difference anyway. I admit its speculation tho cause the tinkov team for the tour is not yet revealed so I will wait untill the team is revealed as for sky its a difference scenarion tho since its almost 100% certain its the dauphine squad + thomas and porte but he is a big questionmark and i would guess its 50/50 for porte going or not atm

 

[DFA123]

Re:

I dont think you know what sky team is going to the tour cause its not the guys you listed. The dauphine squad minus maby 1 has brailsford said so team skys tour team will be the dauphine squad + 1 or maby 2 others.

Ac, kreuziger, sagan, rogers, majka, valgren + bodnar will all do that final climb well and all of em are excellent TTT riders with alot of power kiserlovski will make it fine but he wont do that big of a difference anyway. I admit its speculation tho cause the tinkov team for the tour is not yet revealed so I will wait untill the team is revealed as for sky its a difference scenarion tho since its almost 100% certain its the dauphine squad + thomas and porte but he is a big questionmark and i would guess its 50/50 for porte going or not atm

Where did Brailsford say that? Do you have a link? I would be amazed if, at the very least, Porte, Thomas and Konig/Nieve (possibly both) didn't come into the team. Pro Cycling Stats has a very different team listed - one much more loaded with climbers http://www.procyclingstats.com/race.php?id=149964&c=3 - which would make sense given the route.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Tinkoff saxo TTT team is looking pretty solid unless they decide to bring Jesus.
Valgren, Sagan, Mick, Roman, Berto and Majka should do the final climb. That's 6 guys and they could always decide to let Kiser suck wheels the entire TTT.
It's only ~1.5km remember.

 

[IlGrillo]

1.Quintana
2.Nibali
3.Contador
4.Pinot
5.Froome

 

[blackmamba]

Re:

Tinkoff saxo TTT team is looking pretty solid unless they decide to bring Jesus.
Valgren, Sagan, Mick, Roman, Berto and Majka should do the final climb. That's 6 guys and they could always decide to let Kiser suck wheels the entire TTT.
It's only ~1.5km remember.

Exactly so if ppl get dropped it doesnt matter as long as you got 5 ppl who can go full gas up to the finish. I suspect most teams will use the big power guys up before the last climb and considering its only 1.5km you only need 5 guys who can go full gas. Indeed the TTT team for tinkov looks brilliant but if jesus and not kreuziger for example is there then its another story

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Tinkoff saxo TTT team is looking pretty solid unless they decide to bring Jesus.
Valgren, Sagan, Mick, Roman, Berto and Majka should do the final climb. That's 6 guys and they could always decide to let Kiser suck wheels the entire TTT.
It's only ~1.5km remember.

I wouldn't be confident in Sagan and Rogers doing so well on that final climb if they have already put in big efforts on the flat. Especially Sagan, who will have been competing hard in pretty much every one of the first 8 stages. We've seen him completely blow up a few times this year already.

 

[blackmamba]

Re: Re:

Tinkoff saxo TTT team is looking pretty solid unless they decide to bring Jesus.
Valgren, Sagan, Mick, Roman, Berto and Majka should do the final climb. That's 6 guys and they could always decide to let Kiser suck wheels the entire TTT.
It's only ~1.5km remember.

I wouldn't be confident in Sagan and Rogers doing so well on that final climb if they have already put in big efforts on the flat. Especially Sagan, who will have been competing hard in pretty much every one of the first 8 stages. We've seen him completely blow up a few times this year already.

Doesnt matter if their not there at the final in this TTT you wont see teams coming in to the finish with all guys cause in this particular TTT with the climb at the end it doesnt make sense to do. Most teams will come in with 5-6 guys on this particual TTT to maximum their time what so if ppl get dropped the last 1.5K uphill its not like they will loose time on it

 

[Billie]

Re: Re:

Tinkoff saxo TTT team is looking pretty solid unless they decide to bring Jesus.
Valgren, Sagan, Mick, Roman, Berto and Majka should do the final climb. That's 6 guys and they could always decide to let Kiser suck wheels the entire TTT.
It's only ~1.5km remember.

I wouldn't be confident in Sagan and Rogers doing so well on that final climb if they have already put in big efforts on the flat. Especially Sagan, who will have been competing hard in pretty much every one of the first 8 stages. We've seen him completely blow up a few times this year already.

Sagan is best ttt guy on that team. one of three best in the peloton. That TTT is made for him...

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Tinkoff saxo TTT team is looking pretty solid unless they decide to bring Jesus.
Valgren, Sagan, Mick, Roman, Berto and Majka should do the final climb. That's 6 guys and they could always decide to let Kiser suck wheels the entire TTT.
It's only ~1.5km remember.

I wouldn't be confident in Sagan and Rogers doing so well on that final climb if they have already put in big efforts on the flat. Especially Sagan, who will have been competing hard in pretty much every one of the first 8 stages. We've seen him completely blow up a few times this year already.

Doesnt matter if their not there at the final in this TTT you wont see teams coming in to the finish with all guys cause in this particular TTT with the climb at the end it doesnt make sense to do. Most teams will come in with 5-6 guys on this particual TTT to maximum their time what so if ppl get dropped the last 1.5K uphill its not like they will loose time on it

Well obviously. But the point is that Tinkoff already have a couple of riders who will struggle on the climb - Bodnar and Bennati. That means they will either have to carry riders like Kiserlovski and Majka through the course, or rely on Rogers and Sagan to climb well and come in the top 5. If they lose a rider in the first week or someone is having a bad day, then they have very little cushion. Even more so if Kreuziger isn't there.

Sky and Movistar have more options, because nearly all of their guys can climb well.

 

[blackmamba]

Re: Re:

Tinkoff saxo TTT team is looking pretty solid unless they decide to bring Jesus.
Valgren, Sagan, Mick, Roman, Berto and Majka should do the final climb. That's 6 guys and they could always decide to let Kiser suck wheels the entire TTT.
It's only ~1.5km remember.

I wouldn't be confident in Sagan and Rogers doing so well on that final climb if they have already put in big efforts on the flat. Especially Sagan, who will have been competing hard in pretty much every one of the first 8 stages. We've seen him completely blow up a few times this year already.

Sagan is best ttt guy on that team. one of three best in the peloton. That TTT is made for him...

+1

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Tinkoff saxo TTT team is looking pretty solid unless they decide to bring Jesus.
Valgren, Sagan, Mick, Roman, Berto and Majka should do the final climb. That's 6 guys and they could always decide to let Kiser suck wheels the entire TTT.
It's only ~1.5km remember.

I wouldn't be confident in Sagan and Rogers doing so well on that final climb if they have already put in big efforts on the flat. Especially Sagan, who will have been competing hard in pretty much every one of the first 8 stages. We've seen him completely blow up a few times this year already.

Sagan is best ttt guy on that team. one of three best in the peloton. That TTT is made for him...

He is great when the TTT is about 10km long and when it's the first stage. When it is three times that and comes following eight stages, all of which he will be trying to win, he's certainly not a sure bet imo.

As for one of the three best TTT's in the peloton? Absolute nonsense.

 

[blackmamba]

Re: Re:

Tinkoff saxo TTT team is looking pretty solid unless they decide to bring Jesus.
Valgren, Sagan, Mick, Roman, Berto and Majka should do the final climb. That's 6 guys and they could always decide to let Kiser suck wheels the entire TTT.
It's only ~1.5km remember.

I wouldn't be confident in Sagan and Rogers doing so well on that final climb if they have already put in big efforts on the flat. Especially Sagan, who will have been competing hard in pretty much every one of the first 8 stages. We've seen him completely blow up a few times this year already.

Doesnt matter if their not there at the final in this TTT you wont see teams coming in to the finish with all guys cause in this particular TTT with the climb at the end it doesnt make sense to do. Most teams will come in with 5-6 guys on this particual TTT to maximum their time what so if ppl get dropped the last 1.5K uphill its not like they will loose time on it

Well obviously. But the point is that Tinkoff already have a couple of riders who will struggle on the climb - Bodnar and Bennati. That means they will either have to carry riders like Kiserlovski and Majka through the course, or rely on Rogers and Sagan to climb well and come in the top 5. If they lose a rider in the first week or someone is having a bad day, then they have very little cushion. Even more so if Kreuziger isn't there.

Sky and Movistar have more options, because nearly all of their guys can climb well.

I agree sky has more options uphill but if you think tinkov will use up both sagan and rogers before the last climb i disagree. And tho i think too sky has more options uphill im sure tinkov is stronger on the flats and i also think you make to much of this final climb, the final climb is 1.5K a guy like sagan and rogers are never dropping there and almost the entire tinkov team are good at the flats minus majka and kiselovski (that more than can be said of sky on the flats) so ppl wont get used up like you speculate