Predict the Top 5 GC in Tour de France

[TourOfTexas]

Dawg
Poker Face
Nibbles
Pistolero
TJ

Nibbles will take an early GC lead. Dawg, Pokerface, and Pistolero will duke it out in the mountains, but in the last week Pistolero will fade and be passed by both plus Nibbles. TJ will wheelsuck to an anonymous 5th.

 

[Psalmon]

This course is a real raw bike racer's course. Eddy Merckx would have loved this course. "Flat" stages 3, 8, and 14 will create as many time differences as the Alpe or PdB. Crosswinds in the first week will be a significant threat. Day to day and even within stages courses change 90 degrees, by design. The best teams and experience will play a huge role even before the TTT (which is W to E btw). The overall drain on the riders will be incredible. "Lesser men" who are willing to attack early and target "flat stages" could find a way to be in contention. "Favorites" will need to take risks on descents, make mid stage attacks, win 1K uphill sprints, and create chaos while managing energy. There will be no parades in this Tour. Teams will get burned up. Guys will be isolated, all over the road. Luck, bike racing instincts and grit (3 weeks of it) will prevail.

1. Nibali (Showed his bike racer aggression last year. Saw briefly again in the Dauphine. Strongest team. Experience. Willing and able to take risks.)
2. Valverde (Explosive uphill rider for short distances - 3 of them early. Can fade late in 3 week races, but no ITT. A great bike racer, perfect course for him.)
3. Quintana (Willing to take risks but can be out descended - will be very important like Route du Sud. A steady head. Will stay in game to end. That will be more important than just his climbing ability.)
4. Talansky (My "lesser man." Suicide break in US champs. He's a bike racer and can be overlooked. Had bad luck last year, but was up front. He gets it. Can see him doing crazy off the front attacks and gaining time and in the hunt, and having no clue what he's accomplishing, like the 14 Dauphine. He's just racing. Think a guy with the nickname Pit Bull suits the course this year.)
5. Contador (I think early he will be in charge. The best of them, but the grind will be too much. This will be Giro^3. Every week brutal. Too much. Let Oleg go to the Vuelta, alone. Go back to Lugano and rest, well earned.)

Others:
Froome - Not a raw bike racer, not his course, style mismatch, team is overrated/weak. Just don't think he will get to the point where he can wind it up and fly away. Carnage all over the road is not his game. Last year was a good indicator. 2015 will be harder.
French (Pinot, Peraud, Bardet, Alaphilippe?): These guys are great, but they will ride conservatively being in France. If any one of them risks it all several times, any one of them could win it all (but they won't). Look for bat$hit crazy attacks with panache the first week or just top 10/20s here.
TJ: A follower and every day someone bike racing will cut more and more time out of him. He's good, but not explosive, not his course, no ITT. By late July you'll say, hmmm, TJ 7th, that's about right.
Hesjedal: I'd put him in the top 5 if it weren't for the Giro. I think it will be too much, but we may see him early in the leader board like AC.
Purito: If it were 2012, I'd have him in there, but it's not. Great bike racer, but age and miles may be too much. Would not be surprised tho.
Uran: Just don't know if he recovers from illness in Giro and is ready to surprise. Think it would bee a big surprise
Pozzovivo: Like Chiappucci reincarnate, wouldn't it be great to see him get 7 minutes in an early break and fight it out to the end, but with out the 3 ITTs? The kind of thing to look for. Maybe it would even force Greg Lemond to say Chiappucci's name correctly when recalling the tale for broadcast.
2nds-Majka, Porte, Landa, Martin...Team duties will still keep these guys back, great racers, but not their stage.
Bauke Mollema: I just like the name Bauke.

The green jersey will also be very interesting this year. Only 8-9 sprint stages possible and 5 in the first week, and those stages have a lot of points for winners. Whoever carries it to Pau may keep it. Could also stay close to the end in Paris since not that many opportunities. No Sagan parade here either which will be great too.

 

[nelsonsmen71]

Re:

This course is a real raw bike racer's course. Eddy Merckx would have loved this course. "Flat" stages 3, 8, and 14 will create as many time differences as the Alpe or PdB. Crosswinds in the first week will be a significant threat. Day to day and even within stages courses change 90 degrees, by design. The best teams and experience will play a huge role even before the TTT (which is W to E btw). The overall drain on the riders will be incredible. "Lesser men" who are willing to attack early and target "flat stages" could find a way to be in contention. "Favorites" will need to take risks on descents, make mid stage attacks, win 1K uphill sprints, and create chaos while managing energy. There will be no parades in this Tour. Teams will get burned up. Guys will be isolated, all over the road. Luck, bike racing instincts and grit (3 weeks of it) will prevail.

1. Nibali (Showed his bike racer aggression last year. Saw briefly again in the Dauphine. Strongest team. Experience. Willing and able to take risks.)
2. Valverde (Explosive uphill rider for short distances - 3 of them early. Can fade late in 3 week races, but no ITT. A great bike racer, perfect course for him.)
3. Quintana (Willing to take risks but can be out descended - will be very important like Route du Sud. A steady head. Will stay in game to end. That will be more important than just his climbing ability.)
4. Talansky (My "lesser man." Suicide break in US champs. He's a bike racer and can be overlooked. Had bad luck last year, but was up front. He gets it. Can see him doing crazy off the front attacks and gaining time and in the hunt, and having no clue what he's accomplishing, like the 14 Dauphine. He's just racing. Think a guy with the nickname Pit Bull suits the course this year.)
5. Contador (I think early he will be in charge. The best of them, but the grind will be too much. This will be Giro^3. Every week brutal. Too much. Let Oleg go to the Vuelta, alone. Go back to Lugano and rest, well earned.)

Others:
Froome - Not a raw bike racer, not his course, style mismatch, team is overrated/weak. Just don't think he will get to the point where he can wind it up and fly away. Carnage all over the road is not his game. Last year was a good indicator. 2015 will be harder.
French (Pinot, Peraud, Bardet, Alaphilippe?): These guys are great, but they will ride conservatively being in France. If any one of them risks it all several times, any one of them could win it all (but they won't). Look for bat$hit crazy attacks with panache the first week or just top 10/20s here.
TJ: A follower and every day someone bike racing will cut more and more time out of him. He's good, but not explosive, not his course, no ITT. By late July you'll say, hmmm, TJ 7th, that's about right.
Hesjedal: I'd put him in the top 5 if it weren't for the Giro. I think it will be too much, but we may see him early in the leader board like AC.
Purito: If it were 2012, I'd have him in there, but it's not. Great bike racer, but age and miles may be too much. Would not be surprised tho.
Uran: Just don't know if he recovers from illness in Giro and is ready to surprise. Think it would bee a big surprise
Pozzovivo: Like Chiappucci reincarnate, wouldn't it be great to see him get 7 minutes in an early break and fight it out to the end, but with out the 3 ITTs? The kind of thing to look for. Maybe it would even force Greg Lemond to say Chiappucci's name correctly when recalling the tale for broadcast.
2nds-Majka, Porte, Landa, Martin...Team duties will still keep these guys back, great racers, but not their stage.
Bauke Mollema: I just like the name Bauke.

The green jersey will also be very interesting this year. Only 8-9 sprint stages possible and 5 in the first week, and those stages have a lot of points for winners. Whoever carries it to Pau may keep it. Could also stay close to the end in Paris since not that many opportunities. No Sagan parade here either which will be great too.

So your favourite is Nibali, sorry he will never win a TDF again, last years TDF was weak this one is not AND then we come to your 2nd choice Valverde, strewth he wont even make top 15, the rest of your list and others isnt too bad although you hugely have under-rated Froome, you miss out 3 words from your description of him, Hunger, determination and relentless

 

[dacooley]

the most ridiculous thing to do with estimation of chances of these 4 boys is not to doubt and make hasty conclusions. never say never. nibali has a decent chance of winning the tour.

 

[bassano]

Re: Re:

So your favourite is Nibali, sorry he will never win a TDF again, last years TDF was weak this one is not AND then we come to your 2nd choice Valverde, strewth he wont even make top 15, the rest of your list and others isnt too bad although you hugely have under-rated Froome, you miss out 3 words from your description of him, Hunger, determination and relentless

Where is your it is sport and everyone can beat everyone from start of the page?
I believe that froome have less chance to win TDF again then Nibali, because he is really too overrate for that what he won, he is far away from Nibali according to GT results so how you can say that Nibali will never win again, quite funny declaration
Valverde is maybe not going to podium but also he will not have problem to finish inside top 10, his form always been consistent, quite never failed what I remember, simply he is not enough strong to win GT anymore but one of the best still

I have seen cycling frm the begining of 80s.
I know of course all those arguments and the way you think.
But I dont agree,
Vuelta is more demanding becouse is at the end of the season.
Ask Aru if is more difficult to be on the podium of the Giro or the Vuelta.
It depends of the names, of course, and Giro use to have more demanding routes, but this Giro the route is similar.
Has anyone get the double Tour July-Vuelta September?
So, why is easier than Giro-Tour? it is depends of every season, but not as a rule.
Of course nobody of the big names focus from the begining just the Vuelta, but the same for the Giro, if you focus just on the Giro maybe is better later to choose Vuelta than Tour, but there are people than focus in the Vuelta and that way they do the Giro.
it is a question of situation in the calendar, but it is the same difficult to rest in August than to rest in June, in term of to keep shape.

I understand yxou like Vuelta more is nothing bad but Vuelta can be whatever but not more demaning then giro, mountains are far less difficult then in Giro just look for numbers (lenght, steep) of categorised climbs, weather and way how riders are affronting race so end of season or not Vuelta is just below
Aru peaked in giro, not in Vuelta, just get it that on Vuelta he was not in best best form like everyone from top5, especially when he is young and 2nd GT in season is quite lot
Tradicion of giro is compared to tour de france few years lesser, as Vuelta is much younger less known race for big names of all time, so Giro tour is much more prestige double then vuelta tour maybe for that more cyclist always aimed for that
and again and last time: tour is much more difficult to win as a 2nd GT then Vuelta

 

[Arredondo]

Out of the Big 4, I expect Nibali and Quintana to be the worst at the Mur. But I don't expect any of the Big 4 to try and get time on the others there. Will be going to the finish holding their hands in peaceful camaraderie.

Contador will try to gain time wherever he can. Which is on the Mur, for example.

 

[Miburo]

Out of the Big 4, I expect Nibali and Quintana to be the worst at the Mur. But I don't expect any of the Big 4 to try and get time on the others there. Will be going to the finish holding their hands in peaceful camaraderie.

Contador will try to gain time wherever he can. Which is on the Mur, for example.

If you've a meh day on the mur 20 seconds will be easily gained.

Quintana will do the worst of the big 4 i think.

 

[qwer]

nibali will be worse than contador and froome, he will loose 7/10 seconds for contador

 

[nelsonsmen71]

Re: Re:

So your favourite is Nibali, sorry he will never win a TDF again, last years TDF was weak this one is not AND then we come to your 2nd choice Valverde, strewth he wont even make top 15, the rest of your list and others isnt too bad although you hugely have under-rated Froome, you miss out 3 words from your description of him, Hunger, determination and relentless

Where is your it is sport and everyone can beat everyone from start of the page?
I believe that froome have less chance to win TDF again then Nibali, because he is really too overrate for that what he won, he is far away from Nibali according to GT results so how you can say that Nibali will never win again, quite funny declaration
Valverde is maybe not going to podium but also he will not have problem to finish inside top 10, his form always been consistent, quite never failed what I remember, simply he is not enough strong to win GT anymore but one of the best still

Ha ha! I just love stiring the hornets nest over Nibali !!! Honestly though Nibali will NEVER win the TDF again and as for Valverde being in the top 10 I wish i could go down the bookies and place a bet on this, trust me Valverde will not make top 15, fact, Remember these posts come 26 July ok? Just for a laugh!

 

[Taxus4a]

Re: Re:

So your favourite is Nibali, sorry he will never win a TDF again, last years TDF was weak this one is not AND then we come to your 2nd choice Valverde, strewth he wont even make top 15, the rest of your list and others isnt too bad although you hugely have under-rated Froome, you miss out 3 words from your description of him, Hunger, determination and relentless

Where is your it is sport and everyone can beat everyone from start of the page?
I believe that froome have less chance to win TDF again then Nibali, because he is really too overrate for that what he won, he is far away from Nibali according to GT results so how you can say that Nibali will never win again, quite funny declaration
Valverde is maybe not going to podium but also he will not have problem to finish inside top 10, his form always been consistent, quite never failed what I remember, simply he is not enough strong to win GT anymore but one of the best still

I have seen cycling frm the begining of 80s.
I know of course all those arguments and the way you think.
But I dont agree,
Vuelta is more demanding becouse is at the end of the season.
Ask Aru if is more difficult to be on the podium of the Giro or the Vuelta.
It depends of the names, of course, and Giro use to have more demanding routes, but this Giro the route is similar.
Has anyone get the double Tour July-Vuelta September?
So, why is easier than Giro-Tour? it is depends of every season, but not as a rule.
Of course nobody of the big names focus from the begining just the Vuelta, but the same for the Giro, if you focus just on the Giro maybe is better later to choose Vuelta than Tour, but there are people than focus in the Vuelta and that way they do the Giro.
it is a question of situation in the calendar, but it is the same difficult to rest in August than to rest in June, in term of to keep shape.

I understand yxou like Vuelta more is nothing bad but Vuelta can be whatever but not more demaning then giro, mountains are far less difficult then in Giro just look for numbers (lenght, steep) of categorised climbs, weather and way how riders are affronting race so end of season or not Vuelta is just below
Aru peaked in giro, not in Vuelta, just get it that on Vuelta he was not in best best form like everyone from top5, especially when he is young and 2nd GT in season is quite lot
Tradicion of giro is compared to tour de france few years lesser, as Vuelta is much younger less known race for big names of all time, so Giro tour is much more prestige double then vuelta tour maybe for that more cyclist always aimed for that
and again and last time: tour is much more difficult to win as a 2nd GT then Vuelta

I dont Know why you think that, Giro is my favourite race, as well Giro di Lombardia, and i dont like very much La Vuelta.

Giro is the most romantic race, has the best stages design usually, and is lived by the italians with passion.
But that doenst change what I said. at lest compared last year with this one, is the same difficult to be 4th in Le Tour and 3rd in La Vuelta in 2014 than to be 3rd in the Giro and 4th in le Tour,. and to win Tour and Vuelta and Giro and Tour.

And nobody has won Tour Vuelta in September, it is somthing that Froome, Purito or Quintana are trying and I think Froome could do it, and it deserve the same attention than Contador attemp, but Contador always manage to focus in himself even if he go to the bathroom to take a piss

 

[bala v]

Re: Re:

So your favourite is Nibali, sorry he will never win a TDF again, last years TDF was weak this one is not AND then we come to your 2nd choice Valverde, strewth he wont even make top 15, the rest of your list and others isnt too bad although you hugely have under-rated Froome, you miss out 3 words from your description of him, Hunger, determination and relentless

Where is your it is sport and everyone can beat everyone from start of the page?
I believe that froome have less chance to win TDF again then Nibali, because he is really too overrate for that what he won, he is far away from Nibali according to GT results so how you can say that Nibali will never win again, quite funny declaration
Valverde is maybe not going to podium but also he will not have problem to finish inside top 10, his form always been consistent, quite never failed what I remember, simply he is not enough strong to win GT anymore but one of the best still

Ha ha! I just love stiring the hornets nest over Nibali !!! Honestly though Nibali will NEVER win the TDF again and as for Valverde being in the top 10 I wish i could go down the bookies and place a bet on this, trust me Valverde will not make top 15, fact, Remember these posts come 26 July ok? Just for a laugh!

Quite funny guy so what's stopping you to place a bet? Wanna avatar bet?

 

[nelsonsmen71]

Re: Re:

Ha ha! I just love stiring the hornets nest over Nibali !!! Honestly though Nibali will NEVER win the TDF again and as for Valverde being in the top 10 I wish i could go down the bookies and place a bet on this, trust me Valverde will not make top 15, fact, Remember these posts come 26 July ok? Just for a laugh![/quote]

Quite funny guy so what's stopping you to place a bet? Wanna avatar bet?[/quote]

Because you cant walk into any bookies I know and say a rider will not be top 15, bets usually on TDF are - winner, winners of jerseys, top 3, top 6, ( but both those does not mean you give them 3 or 6 names and they give you odds, instead its you give them a name and they give you odds of being in top 3 or 6 ) best team, winning nationality and number of different yellow jersey holders in the Tour, at the moment the best value in all those bets is the KOM , here are the odds on that from a selection of bookies - http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/king-of-the-mountains

 

[Ludwig's Olaf]

Don't know what your issues are with the Vuelta, in most years it's the most entertaining of the grand tours. Apart from 2011 perhaps, that year's Giro might have been the toughest one ever, but since then it has become easier and flatter year after year, and the big stars stayed away except one per issue. It's a shame what has become of this beautiful race, feels like it's going out with a whimper. Vuelta 2012 in contrast, what a great event after the travesty that was the TdF won by Wiggins. With Contador returning from his ban, Froome, Valverde, Rodriguez. More attacks on the very first hilly stage than during the whole 2012 TdF. 2013, grandpa Horner wins the Vuelta quite unexpectedly, also starting Nibali, Valverde, Rodriguez. Up the Angry Lou, that's better than watching the always same Alpe d'Huez for a decade. 2014, the finest collection of top riders in recent memory, Contador, Froome, Quintana, Valverde, Rodriguez, Aru. The Vuelta regularly features as many mountain-top finishes as Giro and TdF combined, the climbs are steeper, and start on the first stages. I hope it'll officially become the premium tour of the three, the TdF is overrated and quite boring.

 

[Mr.White]

Try to find private bookie, lots of them will take that bet, I know I would...

 

[ILovecycling]

Re: Re:

Ha ha! I just love stiring the hornets nest over Nibali !!! Honestly though Nibali will NEVER win the TDF again and as for Valverde being in the top 10 I wish i could go down the bookies and place a bet on this, trust me Valverde will not make top 15, fact, Remember these posts come 26 July ok? Just for a laugh!

Quite funny guy so what's stopping you to place a bet? Wanna avatar bet?[/quote]

Because you cant walk into any bookies I know and say a rider will not be top 15, bets usually on TDF are - winner, winners of jerseys, top 3, top 6, ( but both those does not mean you give them 3 or 6 names and they give you odds, instead its you give them a name and they give you odds of being in top 3 or 6 ) best team, winning nationality and number of different yellow jersey holders in the Tour, at the moment the best value in all those bets is the KOM , here are the odds on that from a selection of bookies - http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/king-of-the-mountains[/quote]




top 10 (back/lay) bets are quite usual

 

[Gotland]

My top 5.

1. Bardet
2. Pinot
3. Barguil
4. Frank
5. Rolland

7 Zubeldia

 

[Poursuivant]

My top 5.

1. Bardet
2. Pinot
3. Barguil
4. Frank
5. Rolland

7 Zubeldia

Nice of you to drop by Francois Hollande

 

[Tonton]

My top 5.

1. Bardet
2. Pinot
3. Barguil
4. Frank
5. Rolland

7 Zubeldia

Nice of you to drop by Francois Hollande

lol

 

[Red Rick]

I fully predict Kelderman, Gesink, Ten Dam and Kruijswijk to dodge all stage win attempts and get 11th, 12th, 13th and 14th.

 

[UsPostal4L]

1: Contador
2:Quintana
3:Froome
4:Nibali/tejay van garderen

I think both Contador, Quintana and Froome could win this year

 

[Escarabajo]

1: Contador
2:Quintana
3:Froome
4:Nibali/tejay van garderen

I think both Contador, Quintana and Froome could win this year

I missed the count!

 

[Kwatsj]

We all have our own ideas about the top 6. The 4 top contenders, pinot a TvG are allmost in every list. But what about the rest? Who will be filling in the last 4 slots of the top 10?

My guess is purito, bardet and valverde. Slot 10 can be anyone imo.

 

[nelsonsmen71]

Re:

Try to find private bookie, lots of them will take that bet, I know I would...

I live in the countryside of UK not on the set of the Sopranos, no private bookies here, Valverde is going to us the TDF as a training exercise, will attempt to win a mountain stage and eiher retire in week 3 or cruise to Top 25, its all about the Vuelta for him this year, he is getting old and knows its his last chance to win Vuelta, maybe I will become the bookie and accept all bets on him being in Top 10 as I know the money will be safe with me

 

[Miburo]

Re:

We all have our own ideas about the top 6. The 4 top contenders, pinot a TvG are allmost in every list. But what about the rest? Who will be filling in the last 4 slots of the top 10?

My guess is purito, bardet and valverde. Slot 10 can be anyone imo.

Purito is rated higher than TJ, he should be. Then again no wonder people overrate tj after the dauphine, at least this time there's some reasoning behind it.

 

[SeriousSam]

Re: Re:

Try to find private bookie, lots of them will take that bet, I know I would...

I live in the countryside of UK not on the set of the Sopranos, no private bookies here

The UK? Just contact one of the big bookies that do cycling and ask whether they can give you odds for that propositions, and they likely will.