Timmy-loves-Rabo said:
There are 18 currently. I don't believe the number will succeed this.
Ag2r-La Mondiale (2012)
Astana (2010)
Caisse d'Epargne (2010)
Euskaltel-Euskadi (2010)
FDJ (2010)
Footon-Servetto-Fuji (2010)
Garmin-Transitions (2011)
Lampre (2013)
Liquigas-Doimo (2010)
Quick Step (2011)
Rabobank (2012)
Omega Pharma-Lotto (2011)
Team HTC-Columbia (2010)
Team Katusha (2010)
Team Milram (2010)
Team RadioShack (2013)
Team Saxo Bank (2011)
Team Sky (2013)
therefore if there is to be only 18 teams, and only milram loses its spot than only 1 spot is up. Knowing the uci the schlecks will get it. I rate vasc. little to no chance.
Well, even if some of those teams want to renew their license doesn't mean they will succeed. Since the team strength will play an even bigger role when deciding what teams will be in the PT it is very possible for a team like Vacansoleil to recruit strong riders so that they have a stronger team that some of the existing teams. Having had a license before does not give you any special advantages in that regard. The teams that want to stay in the PT need to make sure they still have a strong enough team to justify it or they will be gone simply by strength alone.
Had Geox not stepped in Footon-Servetto would have been gone for sure but now they have a fighting chance of getting a stronger team to keep the license. I still think they could be in trouble though.
As I see it there are nine open spots in the PT.
Teams that are certain to get a new license:
Team Katyusha
HTC-Columbia
Liquigas-Doimo
Teams that are almost certain:
Astana
Caisse d'Epargne (Mobistar)
Teams in danger:
FDJ
Geox
Euskaltel-Euskadi
Almost certainly gone:
Team Milram
New teams that are challenging those in danger:
Team Schleck
Vacansoleil
BMC
Cervelo TT
Fly V
First of all the teams that are wanting to move up to the PT needs to fullfil the adminitrative requirements to be in with a shot. If we assume that none of the teams will fail on that regard then it will all be up to what teams will be able to recruit the best riders going into next season.
Team Schleck will of course have a really strong team so they will be almost certain. The seconds strongest team right now is surely BMC racing given all the points that Evans has collected. Then follows Cervelo and Euskaltel but they will lose Sastre and probably Intxausti so that will lose them stength. Geox has already gained Sastre and will probably have the budget to gain even more strength. Vacansoleil has some good riders but don't have that many points in the world ranking which I think is what will count. FDJ is possibly the weakest given that Geox has already gotten Sastre. And finally Fly V is completely unknown with regards to their strength.
I would rate the teams chances right now as follows:
Team Schleck
BMC
Geox
Cervelo TT
Euskaltel
Vacansoleil
FDJ
Fly V
This is mainly based on this years World Ranking however and I think that they will be looking two years back so some of these can be a little off.
At any rate the transfer market will be very important for these teams.