well i really don't see why vacansoleil is not going to get a pro tour licence just look:
- milram is going to close at the end of the year
- euskatel don't need a pt licence for real. at the his races where they have a shot at they are allowed because of the new points reglement and in the spanish pt races they will get wildcards of course. out of this races they didn't show much in the past, and even the french teams were declassed in the last year.
- are you really sure geox will get a new pt license? it's still the team of gianetti, and they are all waiting now for 2 years to ban them out, so now there is the chance. would it be really enough to sign an old former tdf winner and a former giro winner who at least even was searching his form at the ardennes? don't think so otherwise in 2005 even lpr brakes and sapore di mare would have gotten a pt license/giro invite just because they have had casagrande and tonkov that year
if the rumors with mentsjov are true that would chance everything, but otherwise as a pro conti squad geox will be at all italian classics and will get wildcard invite at il giro because of cunego/sastre/mentsjov and the young colombians.
- cervelo has no need to get one. they will be at all his races because of the point reglement and at most of the other races they will get invited with a wildcard
- same thing for bmc. they will be at the his races because of the points evans was winning this season. and in the other spring classics they will get wildcard invents, because of kroon, burghardt and hincapie. that will be enough. sorry acf but even vacansoleil's spring b-squad with traksel was better as kroon,burghardt and hincapie this spring. and for the small pt-tours vacansoleil have more riders to animate (ricco, hoogerland, carrara, devolder, pols, r. felliu, bozic), while bmc just have evans, morabito and oh well ballan. mauro rode 2 very poor gt's as a domestique for evans and bookwalker...oh well vacansoleil have: mouris, westra and mortensen.
- team schleck: well normally they will get a pt license, but otherwise they will be at all his races "in iedere geval". so they could also do it like cervelo
and maybe after the radioshack disappointment the uci says no. but i don't think so.
- fdj won't get declassed because bbox and cofidis have been last year.
- vacansoleil needs a pt licence to be at alle the pt races and tours like basque or catalunya, because the wildcards will go to national squads and cervelo/bmc. they will definatly get a wildcard at il giro and for the ardennes and of course for the other spring classics like ronde, because of devolder, hoogerland, carrara, ricco. then they could ride the italian autumn classics with ricco, hoogerland, pols, carrara, ongarato, marcato and mortensen if they want to. so it doesn't matter that much that they aren't qualificated for the tour and la vuelta automaticly. they could hope to get tne 4th wildcard at the tour, and if not it's not as fatal as this years, because their main goals will be the spring classics and italy. if they bring ricco and bozic to la vuelta or have ridden a strong season already until then, they will get a vuelta invite instead of one of the boring french squads.
so if just one of these points has any effects vacansoleil MUST get a pt licence. if not i will be very ****ed of about the associated company pt/uci, where money and big names (sky, bmc) count higher than a young, talented, hungry team which always have shown big adoption and results and have a strong gc captain for il giro now, too.
alltough it wouldn't be a total fiasco for vacansoleil. they will just ride all the basic benelux races, the giro, and all italian monuments with maybe fantastic results then.....
so at il giro the wildcards might be
1. androni
2. vacansoleil
3. aqua
4. geox
5. colnago/camiooro or euskatel is really starting if sicard shuld ride his first gt.
for the tour it might be
1. cofidis
2. bbox
3. fdj
4. geox/saur/vacansoleil/skill/
in spain might be
1. xacobeo
2. andalucia
3. and 4. vacansoleil?/ camiooro because of pardilia?/ geox because of sastre and mentsjov?/ cofidis? but moncoutie will retire at the end of the year/ bbox? / fdj?/ saur so that coppel could ride at least 1 gt?
if the shack or bmc don't want to ride il giro or la vuelta there even will be space for a 6th or 7th wildcard at il giro or a 5th or 6th at la vuelta. maybe evans is even doing giro/vuelta next yeat to win one of both, but bmc will be in france anyhow i think.