The article that generated this discussion is very poor. However, I would like to further the discussion relating it to amateur cycling. First some more assumptions.
1. The cost of UCI sanctioned testing is prohibitive at the amateur level, so, although enforcement may be a realistic option for professionals - a relatively small and clearly defined group of riders who can be subjected to surprise tests, whereabouts tracking and whatever else is dreamt up - it is not, and never will be, an effective deterrent for amateurs who want to dope.
2. It is almost impossible to limit the supply of illegal doping products.
3. Some up-and-coming, aspiring young riders, believing that doping is widespread among the riders who are beating them (the ones they have to beat to have a chance at the prized pro contract) will be tempted into doping, and most will get away with it.
4. Amateur level doping is likely to be haphazard and unsafe.
5. Ultimately, eradicating doping at the pro level depends on eradicating it at the amateur level.
So: WHAT CAN BE DONE?
Would it be possible to focus entirely on haematocrit testing? This would be cheaper than testing for a wide range of illegal substances (a UCI sanctioned test is very expensive and can be carried out at too few labs). Assuming that amateurs are less likely to be able to control their haematocrit levels, the possibility of being tested several times every season, along with increasing the "medically unfit" suspension to, say, three months, might be an effective deterrent. A haematocrit test could also be (a) a condition of acquiring a licence and (b) a condition of changing licence catergory. This would enable national federations to gather useful data for more targeted testing.
Perhaps this could be combined with a simplified biological passport scheme for all aspiring professionals and riders above a certain national ranking.