Remco Evenepoel

[Netserk]

Regarding height and historical comparisons, average height of Danish men increased by ~10 cm from the 1910 cohort to the 1962 cohort and has been fairly stable since then. That may be affected by immigration, so perhaps the cohorts since 1962 would have continued to become taller than their predecessors without that. But it still suggests that comparisons of riders from 1994 to the present are not too affected by that.

 

[Netserk]

Really nice to see the data, thanks.

One thing that's always important to note with these height distribution things is population size - the talent pool especially at the far right end of the bell curve is gonna be way smaller than for riders in the 175-179cm range for example. I haven't ran the numbers but I don't think the argument that height is the problem.

The second part IMO is developments in aerodynamics and bike technology. Like, TTs now aren't what they used to be even 10 years ago. If I look at Cancellara TTing in 2016 his position looks awful by current standards and he just had extreme power. In a way aerodynamics being more important should help the smaller riders compared to rolling resistance being more important at the slower speeds

My final observation is Evenepoel doesn't even seem to have the body type of a time trialist. That body type is longer legs. Evenepoel meanwhile has a super compact build

Yes, always consider base rates.

I thought rolling resistance scales with weight? and that the change in regulations (and thus positions) increased variance in CdA.

I'd love to see Evenepoel besides Evans, Porte and Leipheimer to see how they compare.

 

[Red Rick]

Yes, always consider base rates.

I thought rolling resistance scales with weight? and that the change in regulations (and thus positions) increased variance in CdA.

I'd love to see Evenepoel besides Evans, Porte and Leipheimer to see how they compare.

I haven't checked the math in forever, you could be right about rolling resistance scaling. Evans especially looked horrendous on a TT bike by current standards, he had a huge gap between his arms and his head.

I also don't really think all development is in tech alone, but also in simulation and better understanding of the fluid mechanics, so get similar frontal area in absolute terms, but reduce the turbulence you create as you cut through the air as much as possbile.

Judging by the fact that pure aero merchants like Dan Bigham have gotten really close to Ganna on occasion in the IP, I'm inclined to believe Ganna himself isn't that aero, and he's mostly just about doing insane watts. Evenepoel meanwhile systematically does much better the flatter an ITT is despite being a GT level climber, so despite having elite W/kg, he still specializes more in the CdA side of the equation.

 

[Netserk]

Yeah, I have the same impression, but the praying mantis position was outlawed during Cancellara's reign, iirc. I think it was allowed again shortly afterwards (to some degree).

 

[Nomad]

No way, not on real physiological talent. He closed the gap with Ferrari (why else did he pay him 1 mil per season, if not to falsify the contest?) and Jan's discipline problems. The difference between Armstrong and Ullrich is that if everybody were clean Lance wouldn't have won even one Tour, Jan many. This is why doping doesn't level the playing field. Some are on the A+ program, others on the B or C program. For Lance it truly was money well spent, while it lasted.

That's a fair point that doping unlevels the playing field because of the different responses athletes get from PEDs. There will be inter-individual differences not only based on the type of drug but dosages as well (you see this a lot in clinical pharmacology).

There's also the synergistic effect of multiple drugs used by dopers. Virtual all dopers use more than one PED: EPO/blood transfusions + testosterone/albolic steroids is one of the more popular basic stacks used by endurance athletes over the decades.

However, we've seen top GT riders use a smorgasbord of compounds (e.g. Pantani & Rasmussen were using over 6 drugs!). Even Operation Puerto, primarily known for blood transfusions, was dispensing testosterone, anabolic steroids, HGH, IGF-1 & HMG.

One thing is for certain though, when cycling went "high-octane" with EPO in the early 90s, those that didn't partake were simply left behind no matter how naturally talented they were. LeMond, one of the most talented riders in the history of the sport, and having one of the highest VO2max of any endurance athlete, met this sobering reality in the 91 Tour. On his best form & healthy, he finished a dismal 7th - 13 minutes down - behind Big Mig:

View: https://youtu.be/8lHsZ3uqwsQ?si=B-WuCkI-meDUU47Z


The cycling world has never been the same with high-octane doping.

 

[Extinction]

That's a fair point that doping unlevels the playing field because of the different responses athletes get from PEDs. There will be inter-individual differences not only based on the type of drug but dosages as well (you see this a lot in clinical pharmacology).

There's also the synergistic effect of multiple drugs used by dopers. Virtual all dopers use more than one PED: EPO/blood transfusions + testosterone/albolic steroids is one of the more popular basic stacks used by endurance athletes over the decades.

However, we've seen top GT riders use a smorgasbord of compounds (e.g. Pantani & Rasmussen were using over 6 drugs!). Even Operation Puerto, primarily known for blood transfusions, was dispensing testosterone, anabolic steroids, HGH, IGF-1 & HMG.

One thing is for certain though, when cycling went "high-octane" with EPO in the early 90s, those that didn't partake were simply left behind no matter how naturally talented they were. LeMond, one of the most talented riders in the history of ther sport, and having one of the highest VO2max of any endurance athlete, met this sobering reality in the 91 Tour. On his best form & healthy, he finished a dismal 7th - 13 minutes down - behind Big Mig:

View: https://youtu.be/8lHsZ3uqwsQ?si=B-WuCkI-meDUU47Z


The cycling world has never been the same with high-octane doping.

And then they call us nostalgic for wanting 80s racing again. At least the doping didn't turn donkeys into race race horses.

 

[Barkintheeye]

Definitely not over the top like Pogacar. I really never liked Remco with that arrogant deserving attitude but I will be happy to see him kick Pog’s b@TT in any race. UAE and Pog really outdid themselves. And they have the audacity to play him like the good guy in our faces…. Jeez

 

[proffate]

My final observation is Evenepoel doesn't even seem to have the body type of a time trialist. That body type is longer legs. Evenepoel meanwhile has a super compact build

where did you get that idea? Longer legs make it harder to have a low front end (knees hitting ribcage) and also place you higher on the bike (bb to saddle distance). You want a long torso and short legs, like an alligator.

Since we don't have a large database of inseam and torso dimensions among top and less than top time trialists this is mostly theorycrafting. But I can see no explanation that avoids an uncritical reference to "leverage" that favors long bones in the lower limbs.

 

[Red Rick]

where did you get that idea? Longer legs make it harder to have a low front end (knees hitting ribcage) and also place you higher on the bike (bb to saddle distance). You want a long torso and short legs, like an alligator.

Since we don't have a large database of inseam and torso dimensions among top and less than top time trialists this is mostly theorycrafting. But I can see no explanation that avoids an uncritical reference to "leverage" that favors long bones in the lower limbs.

Scientific literature

 

[ManicJack]

Well if you think about it, as speeds go up aerodynamics matters exponentially. According to the announcers he's putting out over 100 watts less than Ganna & Tarling. Maybe that explains some of it?

On the flats the required power increases exponentially per unit of velocity, so if his output is truly that much lower his aerodynamics have to be on an absurdly different level to compensate. I mean, he definitely looks incredible on the bike, but that's a wild difference in drag. I think the answer lies somewhere in the middle. The difference in output is probably smaller than 100W, but he's definitely gaining some speed from his superior position as well.

You both seem to forget about the difference in weight of the riders that you are comparing.

 

[Saint Unix]

Weight famously important on a dead flat parcours.

 

[ManicJack]

Weight famously important on a dead flat parcours.

Please explain to me how w/kg is not a factor in a flat TT.

 

[Saint Unix]

Please explain to me how w/kg is not a factor in a flat TT.

Because there's no need to overcome gravitational force and it's an event where riders maintain a constant speed except when cornering?

Here's a nice calculator to show the relationship between watts and speed

All other things equal, here's how much of a factor weight is:

60kg (ie. Remco)
"If you want to ride at groundspeed velocity 55km/h, you must apply 330.58 watts of power."

80kg (ie. Ganna)
"If you want to ride at groundspeed velocity 55km/h, you must apply 345.87 watts of power."


The ~15W difference here, according to the calculator, is purely down to rolling resistance for the heavier rider since there's ever so slightly more tire in contact with the road, about 65.8W vs. 50.7W. This, of course, ignores the fact that Ganna's drag coefficient and surface area will also be considerably bigger since he's a taller guy with, at least according to the eye test, a worse TT position, but drag doesn't affect rolling resistance anyway. Either way, if it is true that Ganna's output is a full 100W higher he's losing about 15 of those watts in his tires because of his heavier weight and the remaining 85W (plus a little bit more seeing as Remco is marginally faster) through pushing more air, which is both because of his increased size and (possibly/probably) worse riding position.

There's a kicker here, though. I've seen estimations of Ganna's FTP being in the 450-470W range, so lets say 460W for him and 360W for Evenepoel with the 100W difference in mind.

That means Ganna's output is 27.8% higher than Evenepoel's. Ganna's rolling resistance is ~29.7% higher than Evenepoel's, so the relationships between output and rolling resistance are pretty much exactly the same. Whichever way you look at it, weight is a minuscule factor in the grand scheme of things when it comes to pure speed in a straight line.

Now, weight is possibly a factor in another area of racing on a flat course as well. Given that the formula for acceleration is a = F/m (essentially acceleration = watts divided by weight) a lighter rider will accelerate back up to speed quicker after corners and such compared to a heavier rider, providing the watts are the same, but they clearly aren't in the case of Remco and Ganna. As I don't have their power values for short efforts like the ones they'd use to get back up to speed quickly it's impossible to do the math with any accuracy, but if the ratio is the same as with their FTP values their accelerations are as good as dead equal. Remco isn't exactly known for his explosive bursts though, so Ganna probably has the advantage if we're being realistic. Not that it matters as far as the point I'm making goes. Weight clearly isn't factor here either.

 

[Red Rick]

Because there's no need to overcome gravitational force and it's an event where riders maintain a constant speed except when cornering?

Here's a nice calculator to show the relationship between watts and speed

All other things equal, here's how much of a factor weight is:

60kg (ie. Remco)
"If you want to ride at groundspeed velocity 55km/h, you must apply 330.58 watts of power."

80kg (ie. Ganna)
"If you want to ride at groundspeed velocity 55km/h, you must apply 345.87 watts of power."


The ~15W difference here, according to the calculator, is purely down to rolling resistance for the heavier rider since there's ever so slightly more tire in contact with the road, about 65.8W vs. 50.7W. This, of course, ignores the fact that Ganna's drag coefficient and surface area will also be considerably bigger since he's a taller guy with, at least according to the eye test, a worse TT position, but drag doesn't affect rolling resistance anyway. Either way, if it is true that Ganna's output is a full 100W higher he's losing about 15 of those watts in his tires because of his heavier weight and the remaining 85W (plus a little bit more seeing as Remco is marginally faster) through pushing more air, which is both because of his increased size and (possibly/probably) worse riding position.

There's a kicker here, though. I've seen estimations of Ganna's FTP being in the 450-470W range, so lets say 460W for him and 360W for Evenepoel with the 100W difference in mind.

That means Ganna's output is 27.8% higher than Evenepoel's. Ganna's rolling resistance is ~29.7% higher than Evenepoel's, so the relationships between output and rolling resistance are pretty much exactly the same. Whichever way you look at it, weight is a minuscule factor in the grand scheme of things when it comes to pure speed in a straight line.

Now, weight is possibly a factor in another area of racing on a flat course as well. Given that the formula for acceleration is a = F/m (essentially acceleration = watts divided by weight) a lighter rider will accelerate back up to speed quicker after corners and such compared to a heavier rider, providing the watts are the same, but they clearly aren't in the case of Remco and Ganna. As I don't have their power values for short efforts like the ones they'd use to get back up to speed quickly it's impossible to do the math with any accuracy, but if the ratio is the same as with their FTP values their accelerations are as good as dead equal. Remco isn't exactly known for his explosive bursts though, so Ganna probably has the advantage if we're being realistic. Not that it matters as far as the point I'm making goes. Weight clearly isn't factor here either.

Fairly certain Ganna and Evenepoel both have a higher FTP than the ones cited here. @Mayomaniac what was that u23 time trial again?

 

[Cookster15]

he still specializes more in the CdA side of the equation.

I think Remco is better in the A side of the aero drag equation (lower frontal area). My gut feel is Ganna has a better Cd (position and body shape) because he is taller with a longer, flatter back. Another rider who had a great TT for a little guy was Domenico Pozzovivo - same reason as Remco.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Fairly certain Ganna and Evenepoel both have a higher FTP than the ones cited here. @Mayomaniac what was that u23 time trial again?

Back in 2016 he did 460W for 34min in the U23 EC ITT, where he finished 2nd behind Kämna.

 

[Pannenkooky]

Does anyone have a source citing that Remco has a TUE for ADHD meds? I've seen this claim but cannot find a credible source backing it up

 

[Nick2413]

As I don't have their power values for short efforts like the ones they'd use to get back up to speed quickly it's impossible to do the math with any accuracy, but if the ratio is the same as with their FTP values their accelerations are as good as dead equal. Remco isn't exactly known for his explosive bursts though, so Ganna probably has the advantage if we're being realistic. Not that it matters as far as the point I'm making goes. Weight clearly isn't factor here either.

Even if Ganna uses the same burst w/kg for acceleration, once you factor in the cost of those bursts it could favor a lighter rider.

 

[proffate]

Now, weight is possibly a factor in another area of racing on a flat course as well. Given that the formula for acceleration is a = F/m (essentially acceleration = watts divided by weight) a lighter rider will accelerate back up to speed quicker after corners and such compared to a heavier rider, providing the watts are the same, but they clearly aren't in the case of Remco and Ganna. As I don't have their power values for short efforts like the ones they'd use to get back up to speed quickly it's impossible to do the math with any accuracy, but if the ratio is the same as with their FTP values their accelerations are as good as dead equal. Remco isn't exactly known for his explosive bursts though, so Ganna probably has the advantage if we're being realistic. Not that it matters as far as the point I'm making goes. Weight clearly isn't factor here either.

This conclusion is nonsensical to me. We know that Remco has a much better FTP in terms of w/kg because he can climb a lot better. Therefore by your own formula, he has the advantage coming out of corners. "Explosiveness" doesn't give you extra watts on top of your FTP. If Ganna he actually did use a disproportionate amount of watts to accelerate out of corners, he'd pay for it in the steadier sections (see: normalized power).

 

[Red Rick]

This conclusion is nonsensical to me. We know that Remco has a much better FTP in terms of w/kg because he can climb a lot better. Therefore by your own formula, he has the advantage coming out of corners. "Explosiveness" doesn't give you extra watts on top of your FTP. If Ganna he actually did use a disproportionate amount of watts to accelerate out of corners, he'd pay for it in the steadier sections (see: normalized power).

10s W/kg efforts are much moer correlated to anaerobic ability and lactate clearance rather than W/kg FTP.

 

[Salvarani]

Crazy performance.

How this little bastard, Thomas words, beat big guys like Ganna and Tarling in a flat ITT?

Unbelievable.

Big doper.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Crazy performance.

How this little bastard, Thomas words, beat big guys like Ganna and Tarling in a flat ITT?

Unbelievable.

Big doper.

It is notable that the belge spilak quite suddenly became the belge indurain.

This is especially notable give his stature at 170cm and 62kg. It is like Sergio henao putting time to ganna in a 40km ITT

Questions must be asked in Brussels

 

[Salvarani]

It is notable that the belge spilak quite suddenly became the belge indurain.

This is especially notable give his stature at 170cm and 62kg. It is like Sergio henao putting time to ganna in a 40km ITT

Questions must be asked in Brussels

Yes, definitely.

He goes from beating Pantani climbing records to beating guys like Ganna and Tarling in flat ITT a week later?

Crazy stuff.

 

[proffate]

10s W/kg efforts are much moer correlated to anaerobic ability and lactate clearance rather than W/kg FTP.

These efforts are not made in isolation. You can't just take an ~FTP effort and sprinkle some 10s long sprints in the middle without (negatively) affecting the overall average wattage. IOW if Ganna did sprint like hell out of the corners, it wouldn't be the optimal pacing strategy, even if he does have a better 10s sprint from fresh.

 

[peterfin]

Yes, definitely.

He goes from beating Pantani climbing records to beating guys like Ganna and Tarling in flat ITT a week later?

Crazy stuff.

What's crazy? He eats those big power guys for breakfast all the time.