Results of clean riders

[Libertine Seguros]

If we only look at the guys whose GC result still counts, maybe, but those who got caught alone speak volumes about how clean that race was.

Yes, it does. You're right.

That's part of why it is the cleanest Tour de France I remember. Those that didn't get the memo stood out like a sore thumb.

 

[Cookster15]

If we only look at the guys whose GC result still counts, maybe, but those who got caught alone speak volumes about how clean that race was.

Fair comment. Yes, who can forget at 2008 TdF Ricco and his team admitting use of CERA. Then there was Bernard Kohl also busted for CERA who seemed rather naïve. Kohl managed to podium before he was caught. Wiki has an interesting page>
Doping at the Tour de France - Wikipedia

But I also recall Armstrong said something disparaging about the quality of the 2008 field at the time. Perhaps he said this because he knew the race was less fueled then? It was also around the time the biological passport was taking effect. Didn't last long, 2009 was back to full crazy, and I IMO the best Contador we ever saw.

One other thing - It was suggested by some that Carlos Sastra was clean. I struggle see how that was possible knowing his 39'30" ride on Alpe d'Huez that year. Last year with Vingo/Pog/Thomas (39' flat) was the first time anyone has climbed the Alpe faster since 2008 in the TdF. It was rumored that Contador did something crazy in the Dauphine but not sure that was ever verified.

 

[Aragon]

However, if he had returned and performed as he did to a péloton that was continuing to clean up in 2009, then I might give your argument some credence. But he didn't.

...

Jonathan Vaughters claiming he thinks Lance was clean in 2009? At the Tour de France? I mean, he's a blatant snake oil salesman and he had a huge dog in the fight, having a whole load of old Lance running buddies with doping histories on his team that he needed to protect, I can't say I believe that even he believes it if he said that.

I don't know if sport had to continue to clean up in 2009 or was it already significantly more clean in 2008-2009 vs. 2005 for the clean cyclists having by a magnitude better chance to succeed. The comparison is more between 2009 and 2005 and not 2009 and 2008.

Leipheimer is an interesting case as you brough him up with his OFF-score of 132.8, which didn't lead him being sanctioned despite showing a huge surplus of red blood cells with the body almost completely halting the production of new ones. I don't know if it was considered an adverse finding or a "no-start"-type matter, but the UCI had an OFF-score cut-value of of 133, e.g. Tyler Hamilton also had some issues with his OFF-score figure in 2004.

But that was in 2005. Leipheimer managed to finish sixth at the TDF with that OFF-score of 132.8.

Fast forward to 2009. Lance's OFF-score was 95.9, when he finished third in 2009. The ups and downs of his blood values in July are another question, but the sport looks overall significantly cleaner by this metric.

About JV, I don't think he has much incentives to whitewash Lance. By saying publicly that he thinks that Lance was clean in 2009, he is against the official record. He says that USADA and the anti-doping system are wrong, the same network of organisations that are testing his athletes. He implies that they are also unfair.

Not a good strategy to give the middle finger for the guys, who have a hand in deciding when and how to test your protegés and opening anti-doping inquiries about your team.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I don't know if sport had to continue to clean up in 2009 or was it already significantly more clean in 2008-2009 vs. 2005 for the clean cyclists having by a magnitude better chance to succeed. The comparison is more between 2009 and 2005 and not 2009 and 2008.

Leipheimer is an interesting case as you brough him up with his OFF-score of 132.8, which didn't lead him being sanctioned despite showing a huge surplus of red blood cells with the body almost completely halting the production of new ones. I don't know if it was considered an adverse finding or a "no-start"-type matter, but the UCI had an OFF-score cut-value of of 133, e.g. Tyler Hamilton also had some issues with his OFF-score figure in 2004.

But that was in 2005. Leipheimer managed to finish sixth at the TDF with that OFF-score of 132.8.

Fast forward to 2009. Lance's OFF-score was 95.9, when he finished third in 2009. The ups and downs of his blood values in July are another question, but the sport looks overall significantly cleaner by this metric.

About JV, I don't think he has much incentives to whitewash Lance. By saying publicly that he thinks that Lance was clean in 2009, he is against the official record. He says that USADA and the anti-doping system are wrong, the same network of organisations that are testing his athletes. He implies that they are also unfair.

Not a good strategy to give the middle finger for the guys, who have a hand in deciding when and how to test your protegés and opening anti-doping inquiries about your team.

The sport was significantly cleaner in 2009 than it was in 2005. But 2009 was a huge step backward from 2008 that we have yet to recover from.

I suspect Lance may have doped less in 2009 than he did during his reign of terror, but I think the hypothesis that he raced clean on his comeback is based more on hope than expectation.

 

[Aragon]

I suspect Lance may have doped less in 2009 than he did during his reign of terror, but I think the hypothesis that he raced clean on his comeback is based more on hope than expectation.

During the years of his TDF wins, the guy had now-and-then saline infusions to lower his Hct, when it was above 50 %. In 2009, the Hct was around 41-43 %. He doped less, unless he had access to AICAR, GW1516 or some other fancy molecules and if those products indeed are in any ways comparable to EPO in boost.

Do I think Lance Armstrong blood doped in 2009? In the end of the day, maybe my answer is "Yes", meaning the balance of propabilities is >50 %. But the far from unambiguous evidence, incentives to dope or not to dope, incentives to make a comeback if he had to dope and the state of the peloton in 2009 makes his alleged blood doping far from an "open-and-shut case".

 

[staubsauger]

During the years of his TDF wins, the guy had now-and-then saline infusions to lower his Hct, when it was above 50 %. In 2009, the Hct was around 41-43 %. He doped less, unless he had access to AICAR, GW1516 or some other fancy molecules and if those products indeed are in any ways comparable to EPO in boost.

Do I think Lance Armstrong blood doped in 2009? In the end of the day, maybe my answer is "Yes", meaning the balance of propabilities is >50 %. But the far from unambiguous evidence, incentives to dope or not to dope, incentives to make a comeback if he had to dope and the state of the peloton in 2009 makes his alleged blood doping far from an "open-and-shut case".

AICAR was found in Astana' trash during the 2009 Tour de France according to L'Equipe.

Also, that was the year Contador was time trialing better than Cancellara.

From the photos of his jersey change during the last stage of the 2010 Tour de France you can also see that Armstrong was significantly skinnier than 1999-2005!

 

[Aragon]

AICAR was found in Astana' trash during the 2009 Tour de France according to L'Equipe.

There apparently were possibly doping-related syringes and infusion equipment found in 2009 in the course of the Tour in trashcans, and officials warned about AICAR as a doping agent the same year. Astana was suspected of being involved with the syringes, and years later some sources claimed later that some syringes contained specifically AICAR.

But is there anything there? Juliet Macur is a NYT-journalist, who focused on Armstrong's career and doping allegations even writing an article in 2009 about the alleged doping waste. She followed Lance's comeback closely, e.g. confronting Lance about Landis's allegations in May 2010. Yet there is nothing about the 2009 AICAR syringes in her book "Cycle of Lies" despite it being allegedly prime evidence about Lance's comeback being tainted. I don't think David Walsh mentions the episode either in his "Seven Deadly Sins" about Armstrong's doping.

 

[Nomad]

Fast forward to 2009. Lance's OFF-score was 95.9, when he finished third in 2009. The ups and downs of his blood values in July are another question, but the sport looks overall significantly cleaner by this metric.

That doesn't discount the likelyhood Armstrong was using other PEDs in his comeback. The steroidal module of the ABP wasn't implemented until 2014, and the HGH module was just implemented last year. As long as he didn't breach the 4-1 T/E ratio, his samples wouldn't have been tested for synthetic testosterone (only the expensive CIR test is used, which can distinguish between a synthetic testosterone molecule & a naturally produced molecule, when an athlete breaches the 4-1 T/E ratio).

Furthermore, Armstrong has a history of using test & HGH. In his presentation yrs ago where he was a guest speaker at a Colorado University sports ethics class, he admitted using test & corticosteroids early in his career (including the 1993 WC) pre-EPO usage (this was his infamous characterization of "low-octane" doping. Lol).

With Armstrong being 38 yrs old in his comeback, he would have greatly benefited from testosterone & HGH - both very powerful hormones (testosterone levels start declining, on average, about ~1% per year after age 30). Plus synthetic testosterone induces some erythrocytosis (guys using TRT under a physician's care will have to have their Hct checked a couple of times a year to avoid increasing higher levels which can cause clotting).

So, who knows if he blood doped or not for the 09 Tour, but in my opinion there's no way he's going to finish 3rd on the podium at his age clean.

 

[Cookster15]

I suspect Lance may have doped less in 2009 than he did during his reign of terror

This is quite funny - reign of terror So true, but very funny.

I always thought 2009 was a turbocharged year. Certainly I think that was the strongest we ever saw Contador? eg beating Cancellara at Annecy and Verbier. Lemond said something about what VO2 max would be needed to ride that mountain at that speed? But then I remember watching Contador and Shleck on the Tourmalet in 2010 TdF waiting for the fireworks- it seemed slow motion. Something seemed to have put the brakes on - early effect of the passport?

 

[911]

The obvious answer is you can assume none are clean at the top of pro cycling, I assume none are. Is it possible that some could be? Perhaps, but there's no way to know if a rider is clean and since guilt is assumed by most cycling fans its sensible for the top riders to do whatever s necessary instead of doing less to be "clean" or fair. By the way, I've not been in too many races where people were totally fair to each other in the pack, does riding etiquette count too? Is Cav always fair to the other guys, or Sagan or Groenewegen (cough).

Yes you could say maybe Greg won the Tour and Worlds without certain things but consider his equipment and aggressive riding style, this is doping too. If everyone has a vented helmet and you have a hard shell you are more efficient. Same goes for having a strong team, good bike (tire size is right) all that. Body position helps more on flat than a bag of red cells.

 

[Netserk]

consider his equipment and aggressive riding style, this is doping too.

No. Just no.