Richard Carapaz discussion thread

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It depends for sure if Pog and Rog are using the TT bike for the whole course. I reckon they will also switch at the bottom of the climb (if that's allowed?).
If they do the climb on the TT bike, that's a significant disadvantage on the climb.
Allan Peiper already confirmed Pog will switch bikes. They have practiced it multiple times.
 
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It's kind of pointless to risk that much IMO. Just do like 5W/kg on the flat it shouldn't affect your climb at all.

The real question is what W/kg can he put out for 17-18 minutes that Pogacar and the rest can as the high end of a 55 minute effort. I think it's gonna be quite close honestly.
It would probably be the best strategy to go close to full (but not quite) until maybe 3-4 kilometres before the climb, then do those easily (including a bike change) and then be as fresh as possible for the climb.
 
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Carapaz is making me a fan, the way he's raced the last few days. His talent was apparent as a grand tour winner, but he really has tenacity and courage.
:) I also tried but cant, still Sky and Sir Dave; same with Bernal; well at least I tried ha ha; also didnt help Wiggins was yesterday pumping Ineos how everybody likes them now :)
 
"Ricky if you gift stage Froomey will get you bottles in Vuelta"

But really if he's a favorite for the Vuelta it's more by process of elimination (who else) than anything else IMO. He's done the Vuelta after Giro before and not really done much, and his level right now is just impossible to gauge compared to GC riders. Like what's the standard for how much a breakaway climber loses to the GC riders on a climb when he could've been in the GC instead? I think Majka lost like 2 minutes or under on a 30 minute climb some years?
Breaking point for me was Loze, I think he did super well on that stage and I dont still hes in Giro shape yet.
 
Carapaz is doing the race as option 2 of perhaps 3. As Bernal is being asked to ride in the Giro and Vel. He has yet to be medically cleared by the team. If he is the team is hinting at the Giro as a "domestic deluxe" for GT. But, Bernal has said in the past he is interested in the Vel as well. So he very well might line up with Froome option 1 according to the team director. Carapaz is option 2 and if cleared and he and the team want him to go Bernal would be option 3.
 
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The bike change may occur when riders are actually on the climb, as the momentum carrying you from the flat can help in the earlier slopes even if on a tt bike, so this might be easier than suggested.
Then you have the problem of doing a bike change and getting moving again up a steep hill. Even with a push from the mechanic, that's going to take something out of you.

Carapaz's whole TT is from the foot of the mountain to the finish. He has no reason/need to go fast until then, but he has every reason to take as much momentum into the foot of the climb as possible and keep that momentum to the top. For someone trying to win the TT, it's complicated mathematics, but for Carapaz it's simple; what's his fastest setup for the climb? Ride that for the whole TT. Ride tempo until 1-0.5km before the foot of the climb, and then go flat out to the summit.
 
It's kind of pointless to risk that much IMO. Just do like 5W/kg on the flat it shouldn't affect your climb at all.

The real question is what W/kg can he put out for 17-18 minutes that Pogacar and the rest can as the high end of a 55 minute effort. I think it's gonna be quite close honestly.
5W/kg? Probably more like 4.5/4.7 W/kg normalised until he hits the climb and goes all out. At Carapaz's weight 5W/kg is over 310w, and at this point of a GT that's still enough to notice for a 1 hour effort.

The aim will be to get to the bottom as fresh as possible without risking the time cut.
 
It depends for sure if Pog and Rog are using the TT bike for the whole course. I reckon they will also switch at the bottom of the climb (if that's allowed?).
If they do the climb on the TT bike, that's a significant disadvantage on the climb.
most riders will change bikes, I guess, but Carapaz can do it earlier on, before the timecheck, while most others will change on the climb. So he basically has a ~15s head start
 
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most riders will change bikes, I guess, but Carapaz can do it earlier on, before the timecheck, while most others will change on the climb. So he basically has a ~15s head start
that's an interesting twist! I didn't think about the area of change vs. the timecheck. I must admit I gambled some euros on Pogacar taking the KOM, because I would think he can still climb faster than Carapaz (notwithstanding his obvious fatigue). But if Pogacar changes later on the climb, he has obviously some disadvantage during the climb.
 
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I don't think he is at the same level as 2019 Giro. Frankly I think it was obvious and exploits in breakaways when you are not a marked rider can be misleading. Today confirmed this.
Of course he wasn't, his target was the Giro until Thomas was found lacking at the Dauphine and Brailsford shifted their race rosters to keep Thomas happy.

What this does show is that Carapaz was most likely on track for a very strong Giro defence though.
 
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