Richard Carapaz discussion thread

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This is not really about Carapaz, as he was supposed to go the Giro, still: I think Ineos did get their timing wrong by about a week. I think they planned their peak for the third week again, heavily, but they just weren't at the level where they had to be at the start. They probably saw this with Thomas at the Dauphiné, panicked, and chose Carapaz, who was not at his peak either, but was still a better bet at that point.
Now Kwiatkowski and Carapaz look a lot better, so does Thomas. Sivakov was bad luck, Bernal maybe had those back pains in addition to not being ready at the start, therefor having to exhaust himself before he even got to the third week.
That's my theory.

About Carapaz' abilities:
I always find it hard to say "xy is a better climber than ab" because that would mean that there is a "real" level that we just have to find the signs for.
I look at this more like "xy is as good as he is in race 1 and was as good as he was in race 2". There is no other "real" level to me, only potential and non-potential. But every rider has his specialties, climbs, rhythms and temperatures that he prefers and then he's in a certain form in certain years at certain races. I don't want to quote Ernesto Valverde, but... "It is what it is."
At best we can try to find the ceiling that we think a rider has.
He's a great rider with potential to win more. Enough potential to be a leader at Ineos. What this will come to we will see.
 
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The way Carapaz rode in the past 3 stages, and on how he gave stage 18 to Kwiatkowski, to take the win, Carapaz acted like a true leader.

P.S. Currently likely Carapaz is a bit underrated. Lets hope he gets a good chance in his next GT race, pulling him out of the Giro was disrespectful.
 
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Ricky should lead the Empire TDF team next year no doubt. He showed it the last 3 days.

For me he is a lot better than Bernal. Better GT rider. Better climber. Better track record.
I don't know about that. Bernal in form is a very good rider. Is Carapaz better? In some areas maybe but unless you have them go head to head your never going to be able to be certain.
 
I think Carapaz should take it very easy until the climb tomorrow and then give it his all there. It won't give him a good result in the TT but it will give him a good time on the climb, so he could take some points there yet.
 
"... and then Froome can have the Vuelta"

The plans have changed.

Ricky instantly became one of the favorites. Lots of hard MTFs where he can shine
"Ricky if you gift stage Froomey will get you bottles in Vuelta"

But really if he's a favorite for the Vuelta it's more by process of elimination (who else) than anything else IMO. He's done the Vuelta after Giro before and not really done much, and his level right now is just impossible to gauge compared to GC riders. Like what's the standard for how much a breakaway climber loses to the GC riders on a climb when he could've been in the GC instead? I think Majka lost like 2 minutes or under on a 30 minute climb some years?
 
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probably, yeah, a bit less than 50kph average on the "flat" (=40 minutes), and the climbing record is 16 minutes.

So if Carapaz goes 30 kph average on the flat, he'd need to do the climb in less than 10 minutes to make the time cut ;)
 
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Yeah that’s roughly what I was thinking.

Carapaz can probably lose 11-12 minutes on the flat as long as he is fast up the climb.
It's kind of pointless to risk that much IMO. Just do like 5W/kg on the flat it shouldn't affect your climb at all.

The real question is what W/kg can he put out for 17-18 minutes that Pogacar and the rest can as the high end of a 55 minute effort. I think it's gonna be quite close honestly.
 
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It's kind of pointless to risk that much IMO. Just do like 5W/kg on the flat it shouldn't affect your climb at all.

The real question is what W/kg can he put out for 17-18 minutes that Pogacar and the rest can as the high end of a 55 minute effort. I think it's gonna be quite close honestly.
I agree I think it will be very close.

I guess Ineos will have the numbers that should give him the best chance on the climb.
 
I agree I think it will be very close.

I guess Ineos will have the numbers that should give him the best chance on the climb.
The guy needs to do a warmup anyway.

Anyway I think Plateau de Glieres came down to 5.6-5.7ish W/kg from Kwiat and Carapaz yesterday while the GC guys did more like 6.4 roughly for 21 minutes.

At the altitudes we'll see in the ITT, I wouldn't be surprised to see Pog and Roglic put out 6W/kg average for the entire ITT, with maybe something like 5.9 for the first 40 minutes and then 6.2-6.3 for the climb or something. 6.2 for 17 minutes is pretty fast but nothing crazy compared to what we've seen this Tour and if we're gonna claim Carapaz is a Vuelta favorite he should do that easily.
 
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Ineos can also ask Kwiatkowski and Sivakov to use the same strategy as Carapaz to snatch the KOM points. Them being better time trialists than Carapaz should be able to arrive even fresher at the foot of the climb but I'm not sure they'll be a match to Pog/Rog on the climb even then.
 
It depends for sure if Pog and Rog are using the TT bike for the whole course. I reckon they will also switch at the bottom of the climb (if that's allowed?).
If they do the climb on the TT bike, that's a significant disadvantage on the climb.
 
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