This is not really about Carapaz, as he was supposed to go the Giro, still: I think Ineos did get their timing wrong by about a week. I think they planned their peak for the third week again, heavily, but they just weren't at the level where they had to be at the start. They probably saw this with Thomas at the Dauphiné, panicked, and chose Carapaz, who was not at his peak either, but was still a better bet at that point.
Now Kwiatkowski and Carapaz look a lot better, so does Thomas. Sivakov was bad luck, Bernal maybe had those back pains in addition to not being ready at the start, therefor having to exhaust himself before he even got to the third week.
That's my theory.
About Carapaz' abilities:
I always find it hard to say "xy is a better climber than ab" because that would mean that there is a "real" level that we just have to find the signs for.
I look at this more like "xy is as good as he is in race 1 and was as good as he was in race 2". There is no other "real" level to me, only potential and non-potential. But every rider has his specialties, climbs, rhythms and temperatures that he prefers and then he's in a certain form in certain years at certain races. I don't want to quote Ernesto Valverde, but... "It is what it is."
At best we can try to find the ceiling that we think a rider has.
He's a great rider with potential to win more. Enough potential to be a leader at Ineos. What this will come to we will see.
Now Kwiatkowski and Carapaz look a lot better, so does Thomas. Sivakov was bad luck, Bernal maybe had those back pains in addition to not being ready at the start, therefor having to exhaust himself before he even got to the third week.
That's my theory.
About Carapaz' abilities:
I always find it hard to say "xy is a better climber than ab" because that would mean that there is a "real" level that we just have to find the signs for.
I look at this more like "xy is as good as he is in race 1 and was as good as he was in race 2". There is no other "real" level to me, only potential and non-potential. But every rider has his specialties, climbs, rhythms and temperatures that he prefers and then he's in a certain form in certain years at certain races. I don't want to quote Ernesto Valverde, but... "It is what it is."
At best we can try to find the ceiling that we think a rider has.
He's a great rider with potential to win more. Enough potential to be a leader at Ineos. What this will come to we will see.