Zinoviev Letter said:
I’m not biased in favour of GTs, probably the reverse, but I don’t see how anyone who didn’t win one this year can crack the top 3 because nobody took multiple very big wins. There is no reasonable case for Valverde and no case at all for Dumoulin.
Compare for instance Thomas and Valverde: The Tour is a much bigger win than the WCRR. The Dauphine is a bigger win than Catalunya. Two Tour stages are bigger wins than two Vuelta stages. Looking at tier one (big 9) wins, Thomas is miles ahead. Looking at tier two (in this case GT stages and major one week races), Thomas only gets further ahead. You have to give frankly absurd weight to quantity of tiny wins to put Valverde even close. Not only is his season defining win less important, there just aren’t important enough secondary wins to back it up.
There is a case for any of the GT winners, but in my view the one for Froome is clearly weaker than those for Thomas or Yates. Ranking him against Thomas presents essentially the same core difficulty for his partisans as that faced by Valverde fans: his big win is closer in value to a Tour win, but ultimately it is still clearly less valuable to win a Giro. Two Giro stages are again outranked by two Tour stages. He has no other wins to weigh against the Dauphine. He’s closer to Thomas than Valverde, because a Giro is a lot better than the WCRR, but instead of giving absurd weight to little wins, you have to give absurd weight to failing to complete a Giro-Tour double. That brings us back to the Dumoulin problem: when you are ranking the best of the best, impressive failures are still ultimately failures.
There is no plainly obvious equivalent problem for Yates. He has the requisite big win to belong in the discussion in the first place. He has more tier two wins than anyone else. He also has various lesser wins. Ranking him and Thomas is essentially down to subjective weighting of the Tour and just how much more a winner of a lesser GT has to do overcome that weight. Yates did quite a lot more, enough for me to put him first, but Ive no beef with anyone who picks Thomas.
You make some good points here, but I don't totally agree with your premises.
First of all, the manner in which a race is won definitely should be taken into account. So regarding the Catalonia vs Dauphiné comparison,
Thomas was gifted the win through the ridiculous TTT (the same happened in Tirreno where he was unlucky with an untimely mechanical), and Valverde won his race by himself (and also won Abu Dhabi Tour which is WorldTour too, however much you may dislike it). Further, I disagree that Dauphiné is a bigger win in and of itself than the Volta as it's a preparation race, which the Volta isn't.
Also, I definitely rank WCRR much, much higher than MSR and Lombardia but I accept that not everybody agrees with that.
Finally, the fact that Thomas was only really at the top of his game for a couple of months speaks against him for me. But that is just a personal preference.