Rider schedules for 2016.

[yaco]

Have Valverde over Nibali as my favorite for the Giro.

 

[Brullnux]

Have Valverde over Nibali as my favorite for the Giro.

Really

Nibali has an MTT, a destructive mountain stage and high slopes though. I guess Valverde will take time on the medium mountain stages, although an 100% Nibali is not too far behind, but lose a bit on the ITT and more on the MTT, to Andalo(?) too as well as 20-30 secs on Risoul, more if Vincenzo fancies an attack on Agnello. Sant Anna di Vinadio (spelling?) will be one for Nibali as will the awesome mountain stage 14 and the Cividale one. Arezzo, Sestola for Valverde.

Valverde has a good chance but the high altitude suits Nibali more. A full strength Nibali will destroy Valverde á la 2014.

 

[WheelofGear]

I think the chance of Nibali getting dropped in the mountains by a guy like Landa is a lot greater than it is with a fresh Valverde.

 

[Arredondo]

Re:

I think the chance of Nibali getting dropped in the mountains by a guy like Landa is a lot greater than it is with a fresh Valverde.

Vincenzo Nibali won the Tour de France with a 10 minutes advantage on Valverde.

A Vincenzo Nibali in mediocre form finished well ahead of Valverde in La Vuelta of 2013.

Come on, be real. If Nibali is in super shape, he's a better GT rider then Bala.

 

[yaco]

Re: Re:

I think the chance of Nibali getting dropped in the mountains by a guy like Landa is a lot greater than it is with a fresh Valverde.

Vincenzo Nibali won the Tour de France with a 10 minutes advantage on Valverde.

A Vincenzo Nibali in mediocre form finished well ahead of Valverde in La Vuelta of 2013.

Come on, be real. If Nibali is in super shape, he's a better GT rider then Bala.

Valverde if in top form will eat up the TT's - And the Giro is one of the least mountainous in recent times.

 

[Mr.White]

Re: Re:

I think the chance of Nibali getting dropped in the mountains by a guy like Landa is a lot greater than it is with a fresh Valverde.

Vincenzo Nibali won the Tour de France with a 10 minutes advantage on Valverde.

A Vincenzo Nibali in mediocre form finished well ahead of Valverde in La Vuelta of 2013.

Come on, be real. If Nibali is in super shape, he's a better GT rider then Bala.

Nibali is better in absolute top form, but he reached that only twice in his career (Giro 2013, Tour 2014). In every other scenario they're pretty evenly matched, in fact the balance goes in Bala's favor. And in La Vuelta 2013 Nibali finished 59 seconds ahead of Valverde, who lost 49 in the Andorra stage. That's hardly well ahead!

 

[Red Rick]

Its very clear that Nibali is both more likely to win and morel likely to completely suck and not top 5. Valverde is a lock for 2-5th place in a Giro

 

[Arredondo]

Re: Re:

I think the chance of Nibali getting dropped in the mountains by a guy like Landa is a lot greater than it is with a fresh Valverde.

Vincenzo Nibali won the Tour de France with a 10 minutes advantage on Valverde.

A Vincenzo Nibali in mediocre form finished well ahead of Valverde in La Vuelta of 2013.

Come on, be real. If Nibali is in super shape, he's a better GT rider then Bala.

Nibali is better in absolute top form, but he reached that only twice in his career (Giro 2013, Tour 2014). In every other scenario they're pretty evenly matched, in fact the balance goes in Bala's favor. And in La Vuelta 2013 Nibali finished 59 seconds ahead of Valverde, who lost 49 in the Andorra stage. That's hardly well ahead!

In which GT's did they pretty evenly matched, apart from this years Tour? I can't remember any duels between them.

 

[Arredondo]

Re: Re:

I think the chance of Nibali getting dropped in the mountains by a guy like Landa is a lot greater than it is with a fresh Valverde.

Vincenzo Nibali won the Tour de France with a 10 minutes advantage on Valverde.

A Vincenzo Nibali in mediocre form finished well ahead of Valverde in La Vuelta of 2013.

Come on, be real. If Nibali is in super shape, he's a better GT rider then Bala.

Valverde if in top form will eat up the TT's - And the Giro is one of the least mountainous in recent times.

Nibali is a better TT'er then Bala.

Actually i think the chance is bigger Landa wins the Giro, then Valverde. Surely he will be up there, and be one of the best. But Landa and Nibali do have a bigger chance.

 

[GuyIncognito]

Re: Re:

I think the chance of Nibali getting dropped in the mountains by a guy like Landa is a lot greater than it is with a fresh Valverde.

Vincenzo Nibali won the Tour de France with a 10 minutes advantage on Valverde.

A Vincenzo Nibali in mediocre form finished well ahead of Valverde in La Vuelta of 2013.

Come on, be real. If Nibali is in super shape, he's a better GT rider then Bala.

Nibali is better in absolute top form, but he reached that only twice in his career (Giro 2013, Tour 2014). In every other scenario they're pretty evenly matched, in fact the balance goes in Bala's favor. And in La Vuelta 2013 Nibali finished 59 seconds ahead of Valverde, who lost 49 in the Andorra stage. That's hardly well ahead!

In which GT's did they pretty evenly matched, apart from this years Tour? I can't remember any duels between them.

2013 Vuelta. Nibali gained time on the Andorra stage, the time trial and the TTT. Valverde a few seconds each in stages 2, 3, 8, 9, 16, 18, 19 and 20. Without the TTT it would've been very close.

 

[Arredondo]

Re: Re:

I think the chance of Nibali getting dropped in the mountains by a guy like Landa is a lot greater than it is with a fresh Valverde.

Vincenzo Nibali won the Tour de France with a 10 minutes advantage on Valverde.

A Vincenzo Nibali in mediocre form finished well ahead of Valverde in La Vuelta of 2013.

Come on, be real. If Nibali is in super shape, he's a better GT rider then Bala.

Nibali is better in absolute top form, but he reached that only twice in his career (Giro 2013, Tour 2014). In every other scenario they're pretty evenly matched, in fact the balance goes in Bala's favor. And in La Vuelta 2013 Nibali finished 59 seconds ahead of Valverde, who lost 49 in the Andorra stage. That's hardly well ahead!

In which GT's did they pretty evenly matched, apart from this years Tour? I can't remember any duels between them.

2013 Vuelta. Nibali gained time on the Andorra stage, the time trial and the TTT. Valverde a few seconds each in stages 2, 3, 8, 9, 16, 18, 19 and 20. Without the TTT it would've been very close.

But we already discussed that Vuelta.

 

[Mr.White]

Re: Re:

I think the chance of Nibali getting dropped in the mountains by a guy like Landa is a lot greater than it is with a fresh Valverde.

Vincenzo Nibali won the Tour de France with a 10 minutes advantage on Valverde.

A Vincenzo Nibali in mediocre form finished well ahead of Valverde in La Vuelta of 2013.

Come on, be real. If Nibali is in super shape, he's a better GT rider then Bala.

Nibali is better in absolute top form, but he reached that only twice in his career (Giro 2013, Tour 2014). In every other scenario they're pretty evenly matched, in fact the balance goes in Bala's favor. And in La Vuelta 2013 Nibali finished 59 seconds ahead of Valverde, who lost 49 in the Andorra stage. That's hardly well ahead!

In which GT's did they pretty evenly matched, apart from this years Tour? I can't remember any duels between them.

Valverde was better in this year's Tour. Nibali destroyed him in Tour 2014, and was slightly better at Vuelta 2013. Apart from that they rode Tour 2012, where Nibali was 3rd and Valverde crashed couple of times, won a stage and came 20th. They also rode together in Tour 2008 where Nibali was youngster and finished 20th, while Valverde finished 8th.

As I said, I consider Nibali better GT rider. But if he's not on top of his game, I'm giving bigger chances to Bala

 

[May0maniac]

Re: Re:

I think the chance of Nibali getting dropped in the mountains by a guy like Landa is a lot greater than it is with a fresh Valverde.

Vincenzo Nibali won the Tour de France with a 10 minutes advantage on Valverde.

A Vincenzo Nibali in mediocre form finished well ahead of Valverde in La Vuelta of 2013.

Come on, be real. If Nibali is in super shape, he's a better GT rider then Bala.

Nibali is better in absolute top form, but he reached that only twice in his career (Giro 2013, Tour 2014). In every other scenario they're pretty evenly matched, in fact the balance goes in Bala's favor. And in La Vuelta 2013 Nibali finished 59 seconds ahead of Valverde, who lost 49 in the Andorra stage. That's hardly well ahead!

In which GT's did they pretty evenly matched, apart from this years Tour? I can't remember any duels between them.

Valverde was better in this year's Tour. Nibali destroyed him in Tour 2014, and was slightly better at Vuelta 2013. Apart from that they rode Tour 2012, where Nibali was 3rd and Valverde crashed couple of times, won a stage and came 20th. They also rode together in Tour 2008 where Nibali was youngster and finished 20th, while Valverde finished 8th.

As I said, I consider Nibali better GT rider. But if he's not on top of his game, I'm giving bigger chances to Bala

No, Nibali wasn't on top of his game durning the 2013 Vuelta and still beat one of the stongest versionsValverde (faster than 2011 Froome on Pena Cabarga and faster than 2011 Cobo on the Angliru), Valverde was strong as hell in the 2013 Vuelta. 2015 was a little bit odd, Vuelta Valverde showed up at the Tour and Tour Valverde showed up at the Vuelta and Nibali had those few days after his crash when he really sucked. It's always hard to compare, but Nibali likes bad weather, Valverde doesn't and this is the first Giro for Valverde, so I'd favour Nibali over Valverde.

 

[WheelofGear]

Remember I didn't say anything about the overall GC. I think Nibali is a better GC rider who will always find an unorthodox way of winning.

But I'd still rate peak-Valverde as the 5th best climber.

Below Contador, Froome, Landa and Quintana but above Aru, Nibali, Purito and Pinot.

 

[Arredondo]

Re:

I'd still rate peak-Valverde as the 5th best climber.

Below Contador, Froome, Landa and Quintana but above Aru, Nibali, Purito and Pinot.

I think Nibali is better. The big problem of Bala always was/is that he was just nog good enough in the high mountains. Just look at all the results of big mountain stages in the past. Nibali tops him.

Purito is also better, but more irregular. You have to give credits to Valverde for being so consisent. He doesn't have any off-days anymore. But i have never saw Valverde climb the way Purito did in Tour 2013 (Alps). Purito could match Quitana back then.

Aru i think is now a little bit below him, but perhaps next year on par. Pinot is no contender really. Bala is better then him.

 

[WheelofGear]

Keep in mind that it's not just the long climbs that counts. In recent years, small steep climbs have become a bigger and bigger factor in both GTs and one-week races. That's why I'd consider Valverde as being the 5th best. How would you rank the current top 10? Downhill skills should also count since you are still on the mountain. It's not "who is the best to ride a MTF".. But I agree with you that Pinot is a big step below the other 7.

Purito is perhaps a better climber too, but definitely not a better GC rider. You have to be able to ride a good TT.

Zigzaggers like Porte and Spilak (who both are kings of the one-week races) don't really count as GC riders in my book.

 

[Arredondo]

Re:

Keep in mind that it's not just the long climbs that counts. In recent years, small steep climbs have become a bigger and bigger factor in both GTs and one-week races. That's why I'd consider Valverde as being the 5th best. How would you rank the current top 10? Downhill skills should also count since you are still on the mountain. It's not "who is the best to ride a MTF".. But I agree with you that Pinot is a big step below the other 7.

Purito is perhaps a better climber too, but definitely not a better GC rider. You have to be able to ride a good TT.

Zigzaggers like Porte and Spilak (who both are kings of the one-week races) don't really count as GC riders in my book.

Sure, but you were talking about Valverde as the 5th best climber. That's something else then the 5th best GT rider.

I agree with you that Valverde is more allround then Purito. But Purito still can finish ahead of Valverde in a GT, just look at Tour 2013 and Vuelta this year. But that depends on which route you have. If you have a GT filled with a lot of hard, steep climbs, no TT (or a short one) and some stages with a short muro at the end, Purito can finish ahead of Valverde.

If it's more of a balanced GT, with a long TT (or TT's), cobble stage and regular climbs, Valverde is better on paper.

But nowadays it's more important to climb well then TT well. That's a disadvantage for a rider like Valverde if you compare him with Purito. But an advantage for Bala if you look at Froome or Nibali.

 

[Mr.White]

Mayomaniac:
No, Nibali wasn't on top of his game durning the 2013 Vuelta and still beat one of the stongest versionsValverde (faster than 2011 Froome on Pena Cabarga and faster than 2011 Cobo on the Angliru), Valverde was strong as hell in the 2013 Vuelta.

No he was not. Vuelta 2013 is not one of the strongest versions of Valverde. He was better in this year's Tour, in Vuelta 2014, and maybe even in Vuelta 2012. And pre-ban in 2006 and 2009 Vuelta. And Nibali was lot fresher than Valverde in that Vuelta

 

[Brullnux]

Re:

Remember I didn't say anything about the overall GC. I think Nibali is a better GC rider who will always find an unorthodox way of winning.

But I'd still rate peak-Valverde as the 5th best climber.

Below Contador, Froome, Landa and Quintana but above Aru, Nibali, Purito and Pinot.

Nibali is a better climber than Valverde. Tour 2014 is peak Nibali. Only a peak Froome/Bertie/Nairo can stay with that Nibali, and not very easily. Nibali 2013 Vuelta was better than Valverde 2013 Vuelta, and both were pretty off form. OTOH Valverde 2013 was pretty strong in GTs, if not for the crosswind debacle, the Tour would have been good for him. bala was in better form than Nibali and still finished behind him.

If you say it is not all about the long climbs, I'd say then quintana has to go down slightly as he isn't very good on steep short climbs, worse than other GC riders.

I'm not sure that any Valverde can stay within 7 seconds of Giro 2011 Contador on the slopes of the Zoncolan.

Also: Giro 2013 and Tour 2014 weren't particularly unorthodx wins. The cobbles got Nibs circa 3:30 on peraud, 4 minutes in the mountains and TT, and he wasn't even going 100% full out.

 

[Rollthedice]

Regarding Bala and Nibs, funny thing is they developed lately a somewhat adverse relationship which I think started in Dauphine when Nibs set an unnecessary high pace reeling in Valverde who attacked in a stage and continued in Le Tour when Valverde was particularly keen to stop any breakaway attacks by Nibali. A showdown between these two greats in Giro will be interesting to watch. As far as climbing goes Tour 2015 was the best Bala ever but he is no match for Nibs if the Sicilian can replicate his 2013/2014 form.

 

[WheelofGear]

Re: Re:

Remember I didn't say anything about the overall GC. I think Nibali is a better GC rider who will always find an unorthodox way of winning.

But I'd still rate peak-Valverde as the 5th best climber.

Below Contador, Froome, Landa and Quintana but above Aru, Nibali, Purito and Pinot.

Nibali is a better climber than Valverde. Tour 2014 is peak Nibali. Only a peak Froome/Bertie/Nairo can stay with that Nibali, and not very easily. Nibali 2013 Vuelta was better than Valverde 2013 Vuelta, and both were pretty off form. OTOH Valverde 2013 was pretty strong in GTs, if not for the crosswind debacle, the Tour would have been good for him. bala was in better form than Nibali and still finished behind him.

If you say it is not all about the long climbs, I'd say then quintana has to go down slightly as he isn't very good on steep short climbs, worse than other GC riders.

I'm not sure that any Valverde can stay within 7 seconds of Giro 2011 Contador on the slopes of the Zoncolan.

Also: Giro 2013 and Tour 2014 weren't particularly unorthodx wins. The cobbles got Nibs circa 3:30 on peraud, 4 minutes in the mountains and TT, and he wasn't even going 100% full out.

I agree with you on a lot of it. But Nibali is even worse than Quintana on the short, steep climbs. In the Vuelta 2013 was full of those and that was where he lost the most time. Murs are and have always been Nibali's Achilles' heel. He is one of the least explosive climbers.

I think the strongest Valverde I've ever seen was Valverde this year in the Tour. He should at least be able to challenge Nibali in his 2014 form. There is no way that 2015 Valverde would have struggled against Ten Dam, König or Zubeldia as he did in the Tour last year. If we combine their current value and combine it with their results based on the last handful of seasons I think it's:

1. Froome
2. Quintana
3. Contador
4. Landa
5. Valverde
6. Nibali
7. Aru

 

[GuyIncognito]

Nibali win Giro! Comrade Vino make demand yes?

 

[Billie]

Re: Re:

I'd still rate peak-Valverde as the 5th best climber.

Below Contador, Froome, Landa and Quintana but above Aru, Nibali, Purito and Pinot.

I think Nibali is better. The big problem of Bala always was/is that he was just nog good enough in the high mountains. Just look at all the results of big mountain stages in the past. Nibali tops him.

Purito is also better, but more irregular. You have to give credits to Valverde for being so consisent. He doesn't have any off-days anymore. But i have never saw Valverde climb the way Purito did in Tour 2013 (Alps). Purito could match Quitana back then.

Valverde in the Pyrenees that year

 

[MatParker1711]

Re:

Should be a great fight between Nibali, Landa and Valverde. Although I have my doubts about how strong Valverde's team might be.

 

[yaco]

Froome will start his 2016 season in the Herald Sun Tour in Melbourne, Australia - Not to be confused with the Tour Down Under which precedes the Herald Sun tour.