Rio 2016 Olympic Road Race and Time Trial courses

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Re: Re:

DFA123 said:
yaco said:
DFA123 said:
Red Rick said:
I think that after a course as hard as this one, the final flat will come down to legs much more than tt ability. And there will be absolute top climbers leaving it all on the road on the final climb. I think there's a very small chance of a larger group sprinting for the win.
I think the difficulty is being over-estimated quite a bit. The final climb is like an easier version of Il Ghisallo (basically the same lower part but with a much more gentle top section); and they are only doing that three times. Because it's so gentle towards the top, anyone who makes an attack right from the bottom is going to be wasting a lot of energy on the upper section - so I think we'll just see riders going late and trying to gain an advantage over the top and on the descent.

I think riders like Matthews and Gilbert have more of a chance than Froome or Quintana.
You are so far off the mark is not funny - Climbers are being selected because its a climbers course - I doubt very much that Matthews will be selected.
I think this climb has gained some kind of mythical status that it doesn't really justify. Let's remind ourselves of the profile.



Anyone who attacks early is just going to be wasting energy on that top section - teams like France, Spain and Italy will have enough strength to get organised and chase them down. Anyone who attacks in the last km is just not going to get enough of an advantage. There are still 12km of flat to go at the end - that's plenty of time for climber-puncheurs who may have lost about 30 seconds to get back on. And the likes of Kwiatkowski, Gilbert, any domestiques for Spain, Italy, France will certainly work together for quite possibly their one shot at the Olympic title.

The other factor is that earlier in the race there are about 10 climbs of 1km length which will most probably be ridden hard at an anaerobic/vo2 max pace. That is going to take a lot more out of the legs of pure climbers, than it will out of all-round Liege/Lombardia specialist.
I apologise - The team selectors have got it wrong They must have misread the course.
 
Re: Re:

DFA123 said:
yaco said:
DFA123 said:
Red Rick said:
I think that after a course as hard as this one, the final flat will come down to legs much more than tt ability. And there will be absolute top climbers leaving it all on the road on the final climb. I think there's a very small chance of a larger group sprinting for the win.
I think the difficulty is being over-estimated quite a bit. The final climb is like an easier version of Il Ghisallo (basically the same lower part but with a much more gentle top section); and they are only doing that three times. Because it's so gentle towards the top, anyone who makes an attack right from the bottom is going to be wasting a lot of energy on the upper section - so I think we'll just see riders going late and trying to gain an advantage over the top and on the descent.

I think riders like Matthews and Gilbert have more of a chance than Froome or Quintana.
You are so far off the mark is not funny - Climbers are being selected because its a climbers course - I doubt very much that Matthews will be selected.
I think this climb has gained some kind of mythical status that it doesn't really justify. Let's remind ourselves of the profile.



Anyone who attacks early is just going to be wasting energy on that top section - teams like France, Spain and Italy will have enough strength to get organised and chase them down. Anyone who attacks in the last km is just not going to get enough of an advantage. There are still 12km of flat to go at the end - that's plenty of time for climber-puncheurs who may have lost about 30 seconds to get back on. And the likes of Kwiatkowski, Gilbert, any domestiques for Spain, Italy, France will certainly work together for quite possibly their one shot at the Olympic title.

The other factor is that earlier in the race there are about 10 climbs of 1km length which will most probably be ridden hard at an anaerobic/vo2 max pace. That is going to take a lot more out of the legs of pure climbers, than it will out of all-round Liege/Lombardia specialist.
That's quite a big difference to Matthews/Gilbert. It's been years since Gilbert has been competitive in LBL. This year, the only non-climber int he top 10 of LBL was Albasini. Lombardia was dominated by climbers. Climbing abillity will drive the selection. It doesn't necessarily determine who wins.
 
Mar 27, 2015
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Quintana, Froome, Contador, Nibali... None of them has never peaked for a one day race. There objectives are GT. But this is Not going to be The case in The olympics.

Dan Martin has won Lombardia and Liege but The field has nothing to do. No star climber is at a 100% for Lombardía or Liege. Dani Moreno was The strongest guy at last years Lombardia... Star riders dont give a *** about monuments. If Valverde had wanted he could have owned Lombardía for The last decade.

Dan Martin, Kwiatkowski, Gerrans dont have any any chance. Its impossible for them to climb with top climbers at their peak. This is Not going to be Lombardía or Liege. This is Froome, Quintana, Contador at their very very best. I can see a similar scensario to Mende. A really great natural selection and riders arriving one on one.

Its incredible how bookies are totally misreading The situation.
 
Mar 27, 2015
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Gerrans and Kwitakowski with the super climbers on their TdF peak in a 4kms 9.5% climb? What have you smoked? They can barely follow a peloton of 30 guys in St Nicholas...
 
Mar 13, 2015
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Hyman said:
Quintana, Froome, Contador, Nibali... None of them has never peaked for a one day race. There objectives are GT. But this is Not going to be The case in The olympics.

Dan Martin has won Lombardia and Liege but The field has nothing to do. No star climber is at a 100% for Lombardía or Liege. Dani Moreno was The strongest guy at last years Lombardia... Star riders dont give a **** about monuments. If Valverde had wanted he could have owned Lombardía for The last decade.

Dan Martin, Kwiatkowski, Gerrans dont have any any chance. Its impossible for them to climb with top climbers at their peak. This is Not going to be Lombardía or Liege. This is Froome, Quintana, Contador at their very very best. I can see a similar scensario to Mende. A really great natural selection and riders arriving one on one.

Its incredible how bookies are totally misreading The situation.
Well Contador in 2010 was in great shape in LBL, yet couldn't won it. Nibali in 2012 too. Froome won Romandie a week after LBL so he must have been in pretty decent shape. Still he was nowhere to be seen. Quintana was in good shape in Lombardia 2012, Contador also, but they were not in contention for the win. It's not that they don't give a ****, it's they can't peak for both, monuments and GT's. For that, you need a special quality, which is very rare in today's peloton. And they simply decide to focus for GT's, which is their specialty. Monuments would be very hard task for them, which is why I don't have much hope for them to win Olympics (Nibali aside). For me Dan Martin is serious contender, along with Yates, Bardet, Uran, Purito and maybe Alaphilippe.

And put decent and 12km of flat after Mende, and you would not see riders coming one by one
 
Aug 16, 2013
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Hyman said:
Quintana, Froome, Contador, Nibali... None of them has never peaked for a one day race. There objectives are GT. But this is Not going to be The case in The olympics.

Dan Martin has won Lombardia and Liege but The field has nothing to do. No star climber is at a 100% for Lombardía or Liege. Dani Moreno was The strongest guy at last years Lombardia... Star riders dont give a **** about monuments. If Valverde had wanted he could have owned Lombardía for The last decade.

Dan Martin, Kwiatkowski, Gerrans dont have any any chance. Its impossible for them to climb with top climbers at their peak. This is Not going to be Lombardía or Liege. This is Froome, Quintana, Contador at their very very best. I can see a similar scensario to Mende. A really great natural selection and riders arriving one on one.

Its incredible how bookies are totally misreading The situation.
I have never read so much *** in one post.

Nibali peaked for the last Lombardia, and won it. But a guy like Purito won it back in 2012 and 2013, because he's one of the best classics riders of his generation and was one of the best climbers of the world back then.

In 2013, he and Quintana were the best climbers in the Tour in the Alps. Better then Froome, and way better then guys like Contador and Valverde. In the same year, he also won Lombardia.

And MrWhite has already said: guys like Contador have targeted some monuments in the past. For example in 2012. In Lombardia, he was in good shape (he won the Vuelta not that long ago), but he was beaten by Purito, who had a way heavier season then Alberto, so in theory he should have been in worse shape. But that race just showed winning a classic requires different kind of characteristics: namely explosivity, good climbing legs and the endurance after 240 km's.

So concering Río: the big favorites will be the riders who are also dominating the classics and have good climbing legs: Valverde, Nibali, Purito, Dan Martin, Chaves....

While pure climbers like Quintana and Froome will have more difficulty.
 
Re:

Brullnux said:
Don't forget experience in classics, that counts for a lot IMO
Exactly. Classics and one day races are fundamentally different. If the race was a 4km uphilll time trial done three times, then of course Froome, Contador and Quintana would be favourites. But put that same time trial immediately after 4 hours of riding and doing 10+ hard anaerobic intervals - and they certainly wouldn't be favourites.

Riders like Valverde, Martin, Purito and Costa dedicate much of their training to doing repeated hard anaerobic intervals and recovering - then still being able to put out winning power after 6 hours in the saddle. Froome and Quintana don't need that - they need to be able to ride long periods at tempo, then put in a race winning threshold effort on the final climb - perhaps with a vo2 max effort in the last 1-2km. It's fundamentally different, and is why neither of those two have any notable results in classics (and Froome has done Liege about 6 times). Flo makes a good point that Contador does have some pedigree in the Ardennes, but I think it's fair to say it was in a different phase of his career, when he was more explosive.
 
Re: Re:

Red Rick said:
DFA123 said:
yaco said:
DFA123 said:
Red Rick said:
I think that after a course as hard as this one, the final flat will come down to legs much more than tt ability. And there will be absolute top climbers leaving it all on the road on the final climb. I think there's a very small chance of a larger group sprinting for the win.
I think the difficulty is being over-estimated quite a bit. The final climb is like an easier version of Il Ghisallo (basically the same lower part but with a much more gentle top section); and they are only doing that three times. Because it's so gentle towards the top, anyone who makes an attack right from the bottom is going to be wasting a lot of energy on the upper section - so I think we'll just see riders going late and trying to gain an advantage over the top and on the descent.

I think riders like Matthews and Gilbert have more of a chance than Froome or Quintana.
You are so far off the mark is not funny - Climbers are being selected because its a climbers course - I doubt very much that Matthews will be selected.
I think this climb has gained some kind of mythical status that it doesn't really justify. Let's remind ourselves of the profile.



Anyone who attacks early is just going to be wasting energy on that top section - teams like France, Spain and Italy will have enough strength to get organised and chase them down. Anyone who attacks in the last km is just not going to get enough of an advantage. There are still 12km of flat to go at the end - that's plenty of time for climber-puncheurs who may have lost about 30 seconds to get back on. And the likes of Kwiatkowski, Gilbert, any domestiques for Spain, Italy, France will certainly work together for quite possibly their one shot at the Olympic title.

The other factor is that earlier in the race there are about 10 climbs of 1km length which will most probably be ridden hard at an anaerobic/vo2 max pace. That is going to take a lot more out of the legs of pure climbers, than it will out of all-round Liege/Lombardia specialist.
That's quite a big difference to Matthews/Gilbert. It's been years since Gilbert has been competitive in LBL. This year, the only non-climber int he top 10 of LBL was Albasini. Lombardia was dominated by climbers. Climbing abillity will drive the selection. It doesn't necessarily determine who wins.
Completely agree that it will be dominated by climbers. But I think it will be the rounded climbers, who also have good anaerobic power and endurance that will contest the win: Valverde, Nibali, Alaphilippe, Martin, Costa etc.. The best high mountain climbers are just too one dimensional for the demands of the race.

For what it's worth, I also agree that Gilbert and Matthews have little chance, but I think they would be a better bet than Froome or Quintana, because they have a quality that can win the race - particularly if it turns into a tactical battle on the run into the finish and they can get back on.
 
Re: Re:

yaco said:
DFA123 said:
Anyone who attacks early is just going to be wasting energy on that top section - teams like France, Spain and Italy will have enough strength to get organised and chase them down. Anyone who attacks in the last km is just not going to get enough of an advantage. There are still 12km of flat to go at the end - that's plenty of time for climber-puncheurs who may have lost about 30 seconds to get back on. And the likes of Kwiatkowski, Gilbert, any domestiques for Spain, Italy, France will certainly work together for quite possibly their one shot at the Olympic title.

The other factor is that earlier in the race there are about 10 climbs of 1km length which will most probably be ridden hard at an anaerobic/vo2 max pace. That is going to take a lot more out of the legs of pure climbers, than it will out of all-round Liege/Lombardia specialist.
I apologise - The team selectors have got it wrong They must have misread the course.
They haven't mis-read the course, you've mis-read the reasons behind the selection. Froome and Quintana aren't being selected because they are the favourites to win the race; they've been selected because they are among the five strongest riders for their country on this course.
 
Do we have a similar race profile that we can looked into..

4km of 8% climb
1km of descent/flat
3.5km 5% climb
6km descent
12km of flat

If Froome, Quintana, Nibali, Pinot, etc would to win, they should attack 25km from the finish. This is when the gradient is at it's steepest.
So interesting here to see is who are the domestique riders what will make the race hard in the 1st 2 laps of Canoas circuit ( 75-25km from the finish). It will only be team GB and Italy as other big nations would want as many bodies in the final lap.

So Italy's Aru, Rosa, Pozzovivo and GB's Thomas, Yates, Kennaugh, Henao, will make the race hard to isolate everyone.
This would not only mean that the likes of Uran, Chavez, Gallopin, Alaphilippe, Kwiatkowski, Costa, Roche, Talansky, Mollema, Poels, Dumoulin, Gilbert, Wellens might be dropped with 50 kilometers to go. But this would also mean that Pinot, Quintana, Zakarin and Kruijswijk will also fantasize a long range attack.

Chavez, Lopez and Uran will do not the Tour so we are unsure of their form.
Spain on the other hand will try to keep atleast three of their riders fresh going into the final lap.
 
Re:

Asero831 said:
So Italy's Aru, Rosa, Pozzovivo and GB's Thomas, Yates, Kennaugh, Henao, will make the race hard to isolate everyone. .
Henao isn't from GB...

And he could have a shot at the win.

And I think this prognostics are all being made like this is a normal race. We all saw in 2012 that there's isn't very much control in a race like this. From the moment a big break is formed, it starts getting difficult to 3 or 4 riders to control the race.
 
Re: Re:

Ricco' said:
Asero831 said:
So Italy's Aru, Rosa, Pozzovivo and GB's Thomas, Yates, Kennaugh, Henao, will make the race hard to isolate everyone. .
Henao isn't from GB...

And he could have a shot at the win.

And I think this prognostics are all being made like this is a normal race. We all saw in 2012 that there's isn't very much control in a race like this. From the moment a big break is formed, it starts getting difficult to 3 or 4 riders to control the race.
Yes, as I was typing my post I am unsure what will be the strategy of Colombia. Initially, I was think they will put all hopes on Quintana and try to make the race hard and will put Henao, Lopez and Chavez go full gas to set up Quintana similar to GB and Italy.

It will depend on how much support can Chavez and Lopez provide. Still I cannot devise a strategy that will support Quintana's attack with Uran waiting for a reduced sprint as Plan B. Either one will have to work for another
 
Mar 13, 2015
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Re: Re:

Asero831 said:
Ricco' said:
Asero831 said:
So Italy's Aru, Rosa, Pozzovivo and GB's Thomas, Yates, Kennaugh, Henao, will make the race hard to isolate everyone. .
Henao isn't from GB...

And he could have a shot at the win.

And I think this prognostics are all being made like this is a normal race. We all saw in 2012 that there's isn't very much control in a race like this. From the moment a big break is formed, it starts getting difficult to 3 or 4 riders to control the race.
Yes, as I was typing my post I am unsure what will be the strategy of Colombia. Initially, I was think they will put all hopes on Quintana and try to make the race hard and will put Henao, Lopez and Chavez go full gas to set up Quintana similar to GB and Italy.

It will depend on how much support can Chavez and Lopez provide. Still I cannot devise a strategy that will support Quintana's attack with Uran waiting for a reduced sprint as Plan B. Either one will have to work for another
It would be really foolish to go all out for Quintana with such quality climbing team. Everyone of those five could win, if he finds himself in the right move
 
Re:

Netserk said:
There's no climb in Liege anywhere close to that climb in terms of difficulty. Lombardia last year is the parcourse that resembles it the most.
Equally though, there is absolutely nothing on this course anywhere near as hard as Muro di Surmano. It'll be somewhere between Liege and Lombardia in terms of difficulty.
 
Re: Re:

DFA123 said:
yaco said:
DFA123 said:
Anyone who attacks early is just going to be wasting energy on that top section - teams like France, Spain and Italy will have enough strength to get organised and chase them down. Anyone who attacks in the last km is just not going to get enough of an advantage. There are still 12km of flat to go at the end - that's plenty of time for climber-puncheurs who may have lost about 30 seconds to get back on. And the likes of Kwiatkowski, Gilbert, any domestiques for Spain, Italy, France will certainly work together for quite possibly their one shot at the Olympic title.

The other factor is that earlier in the race there are about 10 climbs of 1km length which will most probably be ridden hard at an anaerobic/vo2 max pace. That is going to take a lot more out of the legs of pure climbers, than it will out of all-round Liege/Lombardia specialist.
I apologise - The team selectors have got it wrong They must have misread the course.
They haven't mis-read the course, you've mis-read the reasons behind the selection. Froome and Quintana aren't being selected because they are the favourites to win the race; they've been selected because they are among the five strongest riders for their country on this course.
You are digging yourself into a hole - Before you posted it wasn't necessarily a climber's course and now its a course for rounded climbers - I will guarantee you that Froome and Quintana will be protected riders in their teams.
 
Mar 27, 2015
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This is a Lombardía type of Race with TdF capos at their best. I insist I can see no winners bar climbers who could make a top 8 on an Alpe d'Huez stage.

Martin, Alaphillipe, Kiwi, Gerrans will lose minutes. Just look at the gaps in Mende in last year.

Nibali on last years Lombardía was at an 80% of his peak. No way near to Risoul/Lombarda Nibali.
 
Hyman said:
This is a Lombardía type of Race with TdF capos at their best. I insist I can see no winners bar climbers who could make a top 8 on an Alpe d'Huez stage.

Martin, Alaphillipe, Kiwi, Gerrans will lose minutes. Just look at the gaps in Mende in last year.

Nibali on last years Lombardía was at an 80% of his peak. No way near to Risoul/Lombarda Nibali.
WTH are we looking at the same profile? Mende? Alpe D'huez? The hell you talking about?

Call that overrated. It's similar to Lombardia at best, more like LBL to me.
 
Pippo_San said:
Hyman said:
This is a Lombardía type of Race with TdF capos at their best. I insist I can see no winners bar climbers who could make a top 8 on an Alpe d'Huez stage.

Martin, Alaphillipe, Kiwi, Gerrans will lose minutes. Just look at the gaps in Mende in last year.

Nibali on last years Lombardía was at an 80% of his peak. No way near to Risoul/Lombarda Nibali.
WTH are we looking at the same profile? Mende? Alpe D'huez? The hell you talking about?

Call that overrated. It's similar to Lombardia at best, more like LBL to me.
Lombarda is a good comparison, LBL is in my opinion way easier. Gerrans and Kiwi aren't good enough on climbs, I don't really know how good Allaphillipe can climb but at least Martin has a chance. Mende is a good argument though. Croix Neuve is a definitely easier climb than the climb in Rio and the time gaps where pretty big. 12 kilometers of flat road after the descent is enough to close small gaps but one minute will already be too much and looking at the result from the tour last year, Gesink who was 7th of the gc men lost 51 seconds to Froome in Mende.
 

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