Ronde van Vlaanderen - Tour des Flandres 2023, one day monument, April 2 (men's)

[Carrick-On-Seine]

Even when he says he's got the legs he want. He was very strong in Tirreno on the mur stage. After he won Wevelgem with impressive display, everybody said he's the biggest favorite and when he loses he's suddenly not at his best.

We've got another week of this to endure before Roubaix.

 

[Extinction]

And so the legend grows...

 

[Escarabajo]

One last observation from today: I believe that was Pog at 93% or so.

Or 94.35%?
How can you know this?

 

[Nick2413]

If there is one race Pogacar was aiming for before the Tour it was this one.

Meanwhile, is it me or is there now a very big trend of monuments being dominated by riders that didn't race super heavily or even underwhelm in some races before?

RVV '23 Pogacar last raced 9 days before
MSR '23 MvdP wasn't flying in Tirreno a week prior
Lombardia '22 Pogacar got beaten in Emilia a week before
Liege '22 Evenepoel didn't contest Fleche
Roubaix '22 Van Baarle was 2 minutes down in Amstel
Ronde '22 MvdP won DDV but didn't race GW or E3
MSR '22 Mohoric DNF in Strade Bianche 2 weeks before and didn't race Tirreno or PN
Lombardia '21 Pogacar got spanked all over Italy in the weeks before Lombardia
Roubaix '21 Colbrelli only got 10th at the WCRR the week prior
Liege '21 Pogacar didn't get to race Fleche, and was beaten in Itzulia
RVV '21 Asgreen won E3 9 days before but took a chill day in DDV mid week
MSR '21 Stuyven winning MSR is his first top 10 that season

For lulz.
WCRR '22 Evenepoel surprisingly got beaten in Worlds ITT in midweek
WCRR '21 Alaphilippe was getting soundly beaten by Van Aert in GB
Olympics '21 Carapaz wins Olympics despite Pog stomping all over him all Tour

Then basically all Jumbo riders, especially Roglic and Van Aert have a pretty strong inverse pattern of this.

For any other sport I’d be shocked to see people racing aggressively multiple times the week of their A race. Even in cycling, for one day races, I think keeping it a bit cool 1-2 weeks out allows for more freshness.

 

[Netserk]

If there is one race Pogacar was aiming for before the Tour it was this one.

Meanwhile, is it me or is there now a very big trend of monuments being dominated by riders that didn't race super heavily or even underwhelm in some races before?

RVV '23 Pogacar last raced 9 days before
MSR '23 MvdP wasn't flying in Tirreno a week prior
Lombardia '22 Pogacar got beaten in Emilia a week before
Liege '22 Evenepoel didn't contest Fleche
Roubaix '22 Van Baarle was 2 minutes down in Amstel
Ronde '22 MvdP won DDV but didn't race GW or E3
MSR '22 Mohoric DNF in Strade Bianche 2 weeks before and didn't race Tirreno or PN
Lombardia '21 Pogacar got spanked all over Italy in the weeks before Lombardia
Roubaix '21 Colbrelli only got 10th at the WCRR the week prior
Liege '21 Pogacar didn't get to race Fleche, and was beaten in Itzulia
RVV '21 Asgreen won E3 9 days before but took a chill day in DDV mid week
MSR '21 Stuyven winning MSR is his first top 10 that season

For lulz.
WCRR '22 Evenepoel surprisingly got beaten in Worlds ITT in midweek
WCRR '21 Alaphilippe was getting soundly beaten by Van Aert in GB
Olympics '21 Carapaz wins Olympics despite Pog stomping all over him all Tour

Then basically all Jumbo riders, especially Roglic and Van Aert have a pretty strong inverse pattern of this.

So Van Baarle will repeat Roubaix.

 

[JosefK]

Grateful for being able to watch this one, today. It was a race for the ages.

 

[Red Rick]

So Van Baarle will repeat Roubaix.

I don't see being too injured to race the week before being a great predictor.

 

[Netserk]

I don't see being too injured to race the week before being a great predictor.

I was going to link 2016, but I see Hayman actually participated in two races the week before ...

 

[Lequack]

Highlights

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QrrlLDybH6Y

 

[Andy262]

I’d be happy to see either of the Vans win Roubaix but it is of course a race where you need luck to be with you even more than usual.

 

[ChewbaccaDefense]

Evidence?

Jesus Christie, can you people not read? The key to understanding things is to read all of the words. The contextual clue here are the words "I believe."

 

[hayneplane]

MVDP sabotaged himself with lazy positioning early on that resulted in his team having to chase to retrieve the situation twice. Had it not been a monument length race teams would surely have taken the opportunity to bury him there and then but instead they declined to pour on a brutal pace and let him back in with only the cost of losing Soren Kragh Andersen who was so valuable in E3.

Jumbo Visma were too passive and showed that their team numbers work great aka Quickstep in the Boonen era when Pogi and MVDP are not around but with those two firing the billets the race instantaneously takes shape as a battle of the bigs and Wout just doesn’t have the same level on the climbs.

 

[search]

I don't see being too injured to race the week before being a great predictor.

I was going to link 2016, but I see Hayman actually participated in two races the week before ...

van Summeren missed the Ronde with some kind of knee issues before his victory, as far as I can remember

 

[Landeirovic]

Bjerg 15 after big lead out is a super result for him to!

 

[ChewbaccaDefense]

Or 94.35%?
How can you know this?

Can you read? I didn't write "I know," I wrote "I believe."

And I believe so, because he indicated he almost cracked on the Paterberg. I don't believe a 100% Pog cracks on anything. (Note again, so that I leave a breadcrumb trail of contextual clues, that I wrote "believe" again.(

 

[staubsauger]

van Summeren missed the Ronde with some kind of knee issues before his victory, as far as I can remember

Wasn't Gilbert sick at Across Flanders before winning Paris-Roubaix in 2019 as well?

 

[Breh]

One of the best Pogacar performances ever? Right up there with the Planche Des Belles Filles imo.

 

[Netserk]

It's straight up one of the best performances of the century, I think. But hard to compare with Landis and Froome's copy.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Jesus Christie, can you people not read? The key to understanding things is to read all of the words. The contextual clue here are the words "I believe."

If you believe something to be true, you presumably have evidence that makes it credible?

 

[Netserk]

He cant win "everything" in a year you know...

L-B-L, Tour and Lombardia are probably the three next targets. This year.

Season is already a huge success.

I hope he prioritises Glasgow above Lombardia.

 

[ChewbaccaDefense]

If you believe something to be true, you presumably have evidence that makes it credible?

Pog siad he almost cracked on the Paterberg...I don't believe a 100% Pog, cracks on anything. If you don't agree, then you believe<- really important word--, so we disagree. I'm fine with you holding another belief. Peace.

 

[how yes no?]

If you believe something to be true, you presumably have evidence that makes it credible?

I beg to differ here.
Belief in the strong sense of the word is sensible only when not having credible evidence or evidence not being possible at all.
When you think something is true because it follows logicaly from some other facts or because you have evidence that support it with high certainty, then you don't need to believe, you can presume it or just be certain that it is true, because it follows logically from other "true facts" and you believe in logic.

Belief is 100% certainty with no evidence. If you ever want to get to 100% certainty based on evidence, you'll always need more evidence.

Evidence is a thing that makes other things more evident, evident means clear to understading... we can ask for more evidence untill we reach "self-evident fact" - a thing so clear to understanding that we do not question it, or ask for more evidence, but just accept it as true as it is - believe in it.
So the things we believe are the things that are self-evident (for us).
It's not only religion that works like that, mathemathics also has axioms that are regarded as self-evident without need or possibility for further basis (inside mathemathics).
If you go deep, there are only 3 ways to ground things... You either keep providing evidence for evidence ad infinitum, or you start to circle in your evidence of evidence or you say that some evidence is simply true without providing further evidence for it.

(I also object knowledge being justified true belief, but that can stay for another time)

 

[Sciatic]

He really wants the 5 monuments, and he could do it. He just needs to be first over the Poggio.

In the post race interview he said he would need a few more kilos to win Roubaix. But that could just be a smokescreen.

 

[Volderke]

I am still in awe.

The 2nd Kwaremont was a textbook display how to give an uppercut to MdvP and Wva. UAE rode the asphalt just before the cobbles as if it was a final sprint, and the moment Pogacar launched, WvA and MvdP were 15 meters back and I just knew they would only see Pogacar become smaller and smaller towards the top of Kwaremont.
For a moment I thought Pogacar was waisting energy going solo, but he stayed composed and on Koppenberg, he showed yet another impressive display of powering up the hardest cobbled climb in the race. From that moment on, I knew Pogacar was the man to beat on the last Kwaremont.
In between, on the Kruisberg, MvdP showed WvA once more that it takes a killer mentality to win this race. MvdP didn't just drop WvA at the perfect moment, when WvA just took a turn, given there was a headwind on the climb = WvA at his most vulnerable, but he also tried to drop Pogacar and impressively, Pogacar didn't give in.
The final Kwaremont was a Pogacar show, and even though MvdP tried his very best (with a little help from the motorbike towards Paterberg), the strongest man won. Pogacar rode Paterberg to perfection riding it in a very even pace / wattage, not making the mistake trying to go 5 seconds faster and going into the red much deeper, which would backfire on the way to Oudenaarde.

All in all, for WvA, there is absolutely no shame getting dropped: he was probably on the top of his game (bar some issues with his crash maybe, but I don't think that mattered), but given that Pogacar rode a KOM on the first part of Kwaremont and was 2nd on the Kwaremont overal on Strava, indicated that it was an extraordinary effort by Pogacar, and there is no shame in not reaching that level. Pogacar was perfectly launched on the 2nd climb of Kwaremont while WvA and MvdP weren't starting the climb in the ideal position / with ideal speed. I believe these kind of efforts broke WvA gradually. And in the end, this was even too much for MvdP. Pogacar was really in a league of his own. It was a joy to watch.

 

[search]

In the post race interview he said he would need a few more kilos to win Roubaix. But that could just be a smokescreen.

Bernhard Eisel on German Eurosport said that he'd expect him to need two years to be ready for Roubaix