Sagan Clean?

[Bolder]

Re: Re:

I'd argue that his performances are fair evidence of him being dirty/very improbable that he is clean. YMMV

I suppose that depends on what you think the base level of doping is in the peloton. He's clearly very strong and always has been, but he seems to suffer in some areas if he tries to improve in others and he's been beaten when you might expect him to win. Id like to give him the benefit of the doubt at the moment and I'm really not much of a fan of him other than of his bike riding.

Sagan has been beaten sometimes when the rest of the field keys off him. He's not yet at Cancellara 2006-2010 levels where he can just ride away from anyone. (I'd love to see that guy's "program")

I give him the benefit of the doubt in that he's probably within the parameters of "normal" in the peloton. The points in his favor are no huge, improbable leaps, and the fact that he hasn't outperformed expectations -- which are quite high, and often self-defined...

 

[Kokoso]

Re: Re:

very marketable and an admired athlete by all.

At least the second half of this statement is untrue for me and at least three other people but I think there is much more people who don't find Sagan admirable.

 

[Nomad]

Re: Re:

very marketable and an admired athlete by all.

At least the second half of this statement is untrue for me and at least three other people but I think there is much more people who don't find Sagan admirable.

OK...you caught me embellishing a little. I should have said "an admired athlete by many."

I don't think there's much to suggest doping for Sagan. What do we have so far: He's a successful pro bike rider, a photo was posted of him to highlight his musclarity next to the Gorilla, when the Gorilla looks, IMO, more muscular, he rides fast, and is a 1 time WC...that's it? OTOH, he doesn't have a suspicious transformation toward his success. He hasn't shown any impressive climbing ability unlike another hugh rider back in the day; Big Mig, who started to climb with the best at about the time he became a client of Conconi. And he's won the Green jersey several times against weak competition. Sagan's got a big engine and sounds like a talented athlete:

"Sagan’s VO2max score is 83ml/kg/min! It is often quoted that a rider capable of winning the Tour de France requires the ability to deliver an average 6,7 watts per kilo on the final climb (say 30 minutes) of a key mountain stage. Sagan’s score hits 7 watt/kg, which makes 518 watts from this 74 kg rider!"

http://dailysagan.tumblr.com/read

Maybe some TUEs? Otherwise, I think he's the real deal.

 

[sniper]

Having results like Sagan in a sport like cycling, whether you like it or not, is firm evidence of doping and is not weakened by the absence of other evidence.

Put differently, I could have links to all kinds of doping docs, but it will mean nothing if I don't also have some notewnoteworthy results in my CV. Just saying, if we were to weigh different pieces of doping evidence, results come second only to a positive dope test.

A guy like Federer is perhaps a good point of reference. No dirt on him whatsoever and it's obvious that he has the raw talent, yet nobody in their right state of mind would seriously argue Federer is clean.

 

[Kokoso]

Re: Re:

I don't think there's much to suggest doping for Sagan. What do we have so far: He's a successful pro bike rider, a photo was posted of him to highlight his musclarity next to the Gorilla, when the Gorilla looks, IMO, more muscular, he rides fast, and is a 1 time WC...that's it? OTOH, he doesn't have a suspicious transformation toward his success. He hasn't shown any impressive climbing ability unlike another hugh rider back in the day; Big Mig, who started to climb with the best at about the time he became a client of Conconi. And he's won the Green jersey several times against weak competition. Sagan's got a big engine and sounds like a talented athlete:

"Sagan’s VO2max score is 83ml/kg/min! It is often quoted that a rider capable of winning the Tour de France requires the ability to deliver an average 6,7 watts per kilo on the final climb (say 30 minutes) of a key mountain stage. Sagan’s score hits 7 watt/kg, which makes 518 watts from this 74 kg rider!"

http://dailysagan.tumblr.com/read

Maybe some TUEs? Otherwise, I think he's the real deal.

What't the point with that photo? Should it prove something or what?
Also I don't understand meaning of those watt/kilograms part.

 

[Kokoso]

Look at this picture.
http://1gr.cz/fotky/lidovky/15/084/lnorg/MAK5cb274_P201507200641401.jpg

 

[Nomad]

Re:

Having results like Sagan in a sport like cycling, whether you like it or not, is firm evidence of doping and is not weakened by the absence of other evidence.

Put differently, I could have links to all kinds of doping docs, but it will mean nothing if I don't also have some notewnoteworthy results in my CV. Just saying, if we were to weigh different pieces of doping evidence, results come second only to a positive dope test.

A guy like Federer is perhaps a good point of reference. No dirt on him whatsoever and it's obvious that he has the raw talent, yet nobody in their right state of mind would seriously argue Federer is clean.

What results of Sagan's is firm evidence? Winning races on courses that suits his strength & rider type? Is winning the WC one time an automatic doping conclusion? He has won several Green jerseys, but I've pointed out it was against weak competition.

If he's doping, other than TUEs, what would he be using? If it's androgens, as I mentioned, he couldn't use very much, if any at all, due to the steriodal module of the ABP. Any fluctuations on the adaptive model would be a dead give away and result in target testing, as was the case with Danielson (I think WADA has made some strides with the steriodal module significantly changing the risk/benefit ratio). Maybe microdosing EPO and/or blood doping? But wouldn't we see better climbing ability from him? He seems OK with the 3s & 4s, but gets unhitched easily when the pace cranks up on the bigger climbs. AICAR? But wouldn't we see dramatic weight loss and a change in his body composition?

I really don't see anything that stands out other than he wins on courses suited for his style, stays out of trouble and avoids crashes. Who knows...but I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt.

 

[MacBAir]

Re: Re:

very marketable and an admired athlete by all.

At least the second half of this statement is untrue for me and at least three other people but I think there is much more people who don't find Sagan admirable.

But that's only because he can crush the wheelsucker that is Stybar on every single terrain, right? Oh, and with style too.

 

[Ferminal]

Re: Re:

Having results like Sagan in a sport like cycling, whether you like it or not, is firm evidence of doping and is not weakened by the absence of other evidence.

Put differently, I could have links to all kinds of doping docs, but it will mean nothing if I don't also have some notewnoteworthy results in my CV. Just saying, if we were to weigh different pieces of doping evidence, results come second only to a positive dope test.

A guy like Federer is perhaps a good point of reference. No dirt on him whatsoever and it's obvious that he has the raw talent, yet nobody in their right state of mind would seriously argue Federer is clean.

What results of Sagan's is firm evidence? Winning races on courses that suits his strength & rider type? Is winning the WC one time an automatic doping conclusion? He has won several Green jerseys, but I've pointed out it was against weak competition.

If he's doping, other than TUEs, what would he be using? If it's androgens, as I mentioned, he couldn't use very much, if any at all, due to the steriodal module of the ABP. Any fluctuations on the adaptive model would be a dead give away and result in target testing, as was the case with Danielson (I think WADA has made some strides with the steriodal module significantly changing the risk/benefit ratio). Maybe microdosing EPO and/or blood doping? But wouldn't we see better climbing ability from him? He seems OK with the 3s & 4s, but gets unhitched easily when the pace cranks up on the bigger climbs. AICAR? But wouldn't we see dramatic weight loss and a change in his body composition?

I really don't see anything that stands out other than he wins on courses suited for his style, stays out of trouble and avoids crashes. Who knows...but I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt.

What was Gilbert using? No one really knows.

Edit: Kind of a bad comparison yeh as Sagan is just incredible and has been since day one, but I dispute the hypothesis. Sagan could be "talented" and could also be using "everything", they are not mutually exclusive, and not knowing what "everything" is doesn't mean that he is an exception.

Anyway, obviously oxygen vector doping still exists to an extent as do the safe limits around "recovery therapy", what we know a lot less about is what has been developed over the past half decade or so (e.g. synthetic peptides).

Then there's motos.

 

[sniper]

Re: Re:

...Is winning the WC one time an automatic doping conclusion?

No. I said "his results", not "winning the WC one time". And I said "firm evidence", not "doping conclusion". Let's keep things clean.

He has won several Green jerseys, but I've pointed out it was against weak competition.

it was against (blood)doped competition, too.

If he's doping, other than TUEs, what would he be using?

Yikes, you got some serious catching up to do. Perhaps start with the USADA affidavits and take it from there.

If it's androgens, as I mentioned, he couldn't use very much, if any at all, due to the steriodal module of the ABP.

 

[Kokoso]

Re: Re:

very marketable and an admired athlete by all.

At least the second half of this statement is untrue for me and at least three other people but I think there is much more people who don't find Sagan admirable.

OK...you caught me embellishing a little. I should have said "an admired athlete by many."

I don't think there's much to suggest doping for Sagan. What do we have so far: He's a successful pro bike rider, a photo was posted of him to highlight his musclarity next to the Gorilla, when the Gorilla looks, IMO, more muscular, he rides fast, and is a 1 time WC...that's it? OTOH, he doesn't have a suspicious transformation toward his success. He hasn't shown any impressive climbing ability unlike another hugh rider back in the day; Big Mig, who started to climb with the best at about the time he became a client of Conconi. And he's won the Green jersey several times against weak competition. Sagan's got a big engine and sounds like a talented athlete:

"Sagan’s VO2max score is 83ml/kg/min! It is often quoted that a rider capable of winning the Tour de France requires the ability to deliver an average 6,7 watts per kilo on the final climb (say 30 minutes) of a key mountain stage. Sagan’s score hits 7 watt/kg, which makes 518 watts from this 74 kg rider!"

http://dailysagan.tumblr.com/read

Maybe some TUEs? Otherwise, I think he's the real deal.

That picture with Greipel is misleading as their limbs neither aren in the same position nor are are flexed to the same level. Greipel looks bigged boned than Sagan but not more muscular even in that picture. Anyway what's the point in showcasing that picture? Are you trying to prove that Sagan who is arguably as muscular as Greipel and arguably as fast as Greipel is much better climber despite that? You are trying to prove Sagan is unlikely to dope, but you are harming yourself with this Greipel/Sagan comparison.

Rider dopes from early age has no miraculous transformation for sure. You know they are doping from their teens, right? He has won several green jerseys but not against weak opposition. Cavendish for example is one of the best sprinters ever. Big Mig was nowhere near as muscular as Sagan, btw.

There ae lots of riders who are winning races which suit their strenghts but they aren't winning anywhere near as much as Sagan. That sheer amount of wins, you know... Another thing is that Sagan can get over category one alpine climb with some of the very best much skinnier climbers yet win sprint finish against fastest sprinters, that's unique these days. Another one is that he can do it every possible day, all season.

Claiming that steroidal module would catch him if he was taking androgens is purely hypotetical. Anyway he could be taking EPO or blood doping, fact that he can get fast over really hard climbs with such muscularity supports this hypothesis.

Edit: for example Greipel or Cav, who have similar muscularity, can't do that. They only can sprint fast.

 

[Nomad]

Re: Re:

I don't think there's much to suggest doping for Sagan. What do we have so far: He's a successful pro bike rider, a photo was posted of him to highlight his musclarity next to the Gorilla, when the Gorilla looks, IMO, more muscular, he rides fast, and is a 1 time WC...that's it? OTOH, he doesn't have a suspicious transformation toward his success. He hasn't shown any impressive climbing ability unlike another hugh rider back in the day; Big Mig, who started to climb with the best at about the time he became a client of Conconi. And he's won the Green jersey several times against weak competition. Sagan's got a big engine and sounds like a talented athlete:

"Sagan’s VO2max score is 83ml/kg/min! It is often quoted that a rider capable of winning the Tour de France requires the ability to deliver an average 6,7 watts per kilo on the final climb (say 30 minutes) of a key mountain stage. Sagan’s score hits 7 watt/kg, which makes 518 watts from this 74 kg rider!"

http://dailysagan.tumblr.com/read

Maybe some TUEs? Otherwise, I think he's the real deal.

What't the point with that photo? Should it prove something or what?
Also I don't understand meaning of those watt/kilograms part.

I don’t understand the meaning of the wt/kg part either...I'm quoting from the article

The VO2max shows he's a talented endurance athlete. Naturally talented athletes can have a high VO2max, e.g., LeMond @ 92.

 

[Nomad]

Re:

Look at this picture.
http://1gr.cz/fotky/lidovky/15/084/lnorg/MAK5cb274_P201507200641401.jpg

What are you suggesting with this photo? Steriod/T use? If so, I know dozens of guys at the gym who look like this and they're not using androgens. Proper weight training with the right diet & supplements can, and has, produced muscular bodies...the Marine Corp has been doing it for decades.

 

[sniper]

Nomad,
To my knowledge vo2 max is influenced by doping.
In which case it doesn't necesarily show he s a talented athlete. (Although I agree he likely is)
And wheb you use Lemonds 92 figure, beware it is not an established fact. Its from the horses mouth. As you know there are athletes out there who have actually published their vo2 max. Better to use those.

 

[Nomad]

Re:

Nomad,
To my knowledge vo2 max is influenced by doping.
In which case it doesn't necesarily show he s a talented athlete. (Although I agree he likely is)
And wheb you use Lemonds 92 figure, beware it is not an established fact. Its from the horses mouth. As you know there are athletes out there who have actually published their vo2 max. Better to use those.

Good point, but VO2max can also "not" be influenced by doping. LeMond's # is from a site that published the world's top VO2max's with athletes. How much of those are verifiably drug-influenced, who knows? Only Armstrong’s 84 on the list stands out as influenced by dope:

http://www.topendsports.com/testing/records/vo2max.htm

Further, why would I need to catch-up by reading the USADA documents? With the ABP and some new testing measures, doping might be a little more challenging with a changing risk/benefit ratio than back in the pre-ABP days.

Like I mentioned, the steriodal module of ABP was implemented in Jan/2014. From my understanding, WADA no longer has to use 4:1 T/E ratio protocol to warrant the CIR test. With fluctuations in an athlete's module, the athlete could be target tested. It's my understanding that Danielson was target tested based on his module. I imagine the Danielson situation aroused concerned within peloton. Here's some specifics on ABP steriodal module:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4033181/

Also, the rHuEPO test has improved sensitivity to detect microdoses several hours after the 7 hr "safe window" where testing was generally not permitted between 11:00 pm - 6:00 am. It appears that microdosing is more riskier now, particulary during in-competition:

Drug Test Anal. 2013 Nov-Dec;5(11-12):861-9.

Detection of recombinant EPO in blood and urine samples with EPO WGA MAIIA, IEF and SAR-PAGE after microdose injections.

Dehnes Y, Shalina A, Myrvold L.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24190107

I understand that blood doping can be utilized and probably is to some extent with the varations allowed in the passport. However, without microdosing EPO how much could an athlete blood dope? Ashenden has said microdosing EPO is primarily used as a masking agent to elevate reticulocytes when transfusing, as opposed to a performance enhancing strategy with just microdosing alone. Perhaps you, or someone else with expertise in this area, might know what would be the limitations of blood doping without the benefit of microdosing EPO as a masking agent? I would imagine you could still blood dope, but to what extent?

I realize there could be undetectable ESA stimulating agents as well as designer steriods similar to what Marion Jones used as part of the BALCO scandal back in 2000. And the CIRC report from last year mentioned that AICAR is popular in the peloton. I know athletes are astute at adjusting their programs and improvising when new tests and measures are implemented. And the CIRC also mentioned that doping doctors are still used as a resource, so I'm sure some athletes are getting the best advice money can buy.

 

[Nomad]

Re: Re:

very marketable and an admired athlete by all.

At least the second half of this statement is untrue for me and at least three other people but I think there is much more people who don't find Sagan admirable.

OK...you caught me embellishing a little. I should have said "an admired athlete by many."

I don't think there's much to suggest doping for Sagan. What do we have so far: He's a successful pro bike rider, a photo was posted of him to highlight his musclarity next to the Gorilla, when the Gorilla looks, IMO, more muscular, he rides fast, and is a 1 time WC...that's it? OTOH, he doesn't have a suspicious transformation toward his success. He hasn't shown any impressive climbing ability unlike another hugh rider back in the day; Big Mig, who started to climb with the best at about the time he became a client of Conconi. And he's won the Green jersey several times against weak competition. Sagan's got a big engine and sounds like a talented athlete:

"Sagan’s VO2max score is 83ml/kg/min! It is often quoted that a rider capable of winning the Tour de France requires the ability to deliver an average 6,7 watts per kilo on the final climb (say 30 minutes) of a key mountain stage. Sagan’s score hits 7 watt/kg, which makes 518 watts from this 74 kg rider!"

http://dailysagan.tumblr.com/read

Maybe some TUEs? Otherwise, I think he's the real deal.

That picture with Greipel is misleading as their limbs neither aren in the same position nor are are flexed to the same level. Greipel looks bigged boned than Sagan but not more muscular even in that picture. Anyway what's the point in showcasing that picture? Are you trying to prove that Sagan who is arguably as muscular as Greipel and arguably as fast as Greipel is much better climber despite that? You are trying to prove Sagan is unlikely to dope, but you are harming yourself with this Greipel/Sagan comparison.

Rider dopes from early age has no miraculous transformation for sure. You know they are doping from their teens, right? He has won several green jerseys but not against weak opposition. Cavendish for example is one of the best sprinters ever. Big Mig was nowhere near as muscular as Sagan, btw.

There ae lots of riders who are winning races which suit their strenghts but they aren't winning anywhere near as much as Sagan. That sheer amount of wins, you know... Another thing is that Sagan can get over category one alpine climb with some of the very best much skinnier climbers yet win sprint finish against fastest sprinters, that's unique these days. Another one is that he can do it every possible day, all season.

Claiming that steroidal module would catch him if he was taking androgens is purely hypotetical. Anyway he could be taking EPO or blood doping, fact that he can get fast over really hard climbs with such muscularity supports this hypothesis.

Edit: for example Greipel or Cav, who have similar muscularity, can't do that. They only can sprint fast.

I haven't seen Sagan get over cat 1 climbs with the "very best much skinnier climbers" (Froome? Quintana? Contador?). He's getting dropped like a lead balloon losing minutes on the cat 1s & HCs of the TDF. Last time I saw him go "full gas" on a high MTF he looked like this on the summit of Mt. Baldy:

https://youtu.be/3Y4CIOv44Zg

....I'm surprised he didn't need medical.

 

[Kokoso]

Re: Re:

Look at this picture.
http://1gr.cz/fotky/lidovky/15/084/lnorg/MAK5cb274_P201507200641401.jpg

What are you suggesting with this photo? Steriod/T use? If so, I know dozens of guys at the gym who look like this and they're not using androgens. Proper weight training with the right diet & supplements can, and has, produced muscular bodies...the Marine Corp has been doing it for decades.

I'm suggesting nothing, or merely that Sagan is unusually muscular for road cyclist. Rest of the answer you can find above if you try and read properly. I'm aware there are men muscular like this even without special training, but not cyclist.

Anyway firstly you could be so polite to answer before you begin to ask.

 

[Kokoso]

Re: Re:

I haven't seen Sagan get over cat 1 climbs with the "very best much skinnier climbers" (Froome? Quintana? Contador?). He's getting dropped like a lead balloon losing minutes on the cat 1s & HCs of the TDF. Last time I saw him go "full gas" on a high MTF he looked like this on the summit of Mt. Baldy:

https://youtu.be/3Y4CIOv44Zg

....I'm surprised he didn't need medical.

Why are you surprised he didn't need medical help?

Tour de Suisse 2013 stage to Meiringen. That was SOME climbing from him.

 

[popular jams]

Re:

Nomad,
To my knowledge vo2 max is influenced by doping.
In which case it doesn't necesarily show he s a talented athlete. (Although I agree he likely is)
And wheb you use Lemonds 92 figure, beware it is not an established fact. Its from the horses mouth. As you know there are athletes out there who have actually published their vo2 max. Better to use those.

Yeah, that's just completely made up. But LeMond definitively doped his way to cycling success, right?

 

[sniper]

Re: Re:

Nomad,
To my knowledge vo2 max is influenced by doping.
In which case it doesn't necesarily show he s a talented athlete. (Although I agree he likely is)
And wheb you use Lemonds 92 figure, beware it is not an established fact. Its from the horses mouth. As you know there are athletes out there who have actually published their vo2 max. Better to use those.

Good point, but VO2max can also "not" be influenced by doping. LeMond's # is from a site that published the world's top VO2max's with athletes. How much of those are verifiably drug-influenced, who knows? Only Armstrong’s 84 on the list stands out as influenced by dope:

http://www.topendsports.com/testing/records/vo2max.htm

Further, why would I need to catch-up by reading the USADA documents? With the ABP and some new testing measures, doping might be a little more challenging with a changing risk/benefit ratio than back in the pre-ABP days.

Like I mentioned, the steriodal module of ABP was implemented in Jan/2014. From my understanding, WADA no longer has to use 4:1 T/E ratio protocol to warrant the CIR test. With fluctuations in an athlete's module, the athlete could be target tested. It's my understanding that Danielson was target tested based on his module. I imagine the Danielson situation aroused concerned within peloton. Here's some specifics on ABP steriodal module:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4033181/

Also, the rHuEPO test has improved sensitivity to detect microdoses several hours after the 7 hr "safe window" where testing was generally not permitted between 11:00 pm - 6:00 am. It appears that microdosing is more riskier now, particulary during in-competition:

Drug Test Anal. 2013 Nov-Dec;5(11-12):861-9.

Detection of recombinant EPO in blood and urine samples with EPO WGA MAIIA, IEF and SAR-PAGE after microdose injections.

Dehnes Y, Shalina A, Myrvold L.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24190107

I understand that blood doping can be utilized and probably is to some extent with the varations allowed in the passport. However, without microdosing EPO how much could an athlete blood dope? Ashenden has said microdosing EPO is primarily used as a masking agent to elevate reticulocytes when transfusing, as opposed to a performance enhancing strategy with just microdosing alone. Perhaps you, or someone else with expertise in this area, might know what would be the limitations of blood doping without the benefit of microdosing EPO as a masking agent? I would imagine you could still blood dope, but to what extent?

I realize there could be undetectable ESA stimulating agents as well as designer steriods similar to what Marion Jones used as part of the BALCO scandal back in 2000. And the CIRC report from last year mentioned that AICAR is popular in the peloton. I know athletes are astute at adjusting their programs and improvising when new tests and measures are implemented. And the CIRC also mentioned that doping doctors are still used as a resource, so I'm sure some athletes are getting the best advice money can buy.

Very informative stuff here, thanks.

The problem remains that you seem to write all that under the assumption that Wada and Uci actually want to catch elite athletes. Which you can rest assured is not the case. Somebody like Sagan, riding for tinkoff, on bread and water? It's just not a plausible working hypothesis.
Thing is, Sagan already had some major wins prior to 2014.
And have times gone down since 2014? Afaict they haven't.
So this steroidal module is nice, but doesn't seem to have cut down doping in any significant way and certainly does very little to explain Sagan's pre2014 wins.

Key point is: us not knowing how rider xyz dopes or gets away with it is never an argument that rider xyz doesnt dope. Bear in mind we still know only a fraction of what people like Lance and Contador were/are doping with let alone how they are/were getting away with it.

Apart from that you make cogent and wellinformed points, keep it up.

 

[pastronef]

I wondered why this thread was in 2nd page

 

[gooner]

I wondered why this thread was in 2nd page

Wait for it.

"His fans don't defend him and he never played the clean card."

 

[sniper]

Yea, and that's true.
But he's on the list of favourites to become exposed as a motor fraud.
While I have no problem with Sagan, it would crack me up if UCIs milkcow gets undressed as a cheat.

 

[Irondan]

Re:

Yea, and that's true.
But he's on the list of favourites to become exposed as a motor fraud.
While I have no problem with Sagan, it would crack me up if UCIs milkcow gets undressed as a cheat.

Wha??

What list of "favorites" are you referring to?

 

[sniper]

Re: Re:

Yea, and that's true.
But he's on the list of favourites to become exposed as a motor fraud.
While I have no problem with Sagan, it would crack me up if UCIs milkcow gets undressed as a cheat.

Wha??

What list of "favorites" are you referring to?

Not really a list, but judging from the discussions i've read on twitter, Sagan, Cance, and some others are favorits to get exposed, mainly based on the Strade Bianche top 10.
"favorits" both in the sense that people 'hope' it's them, and that people 'expect' it's (one of) them.

It's clutching at straws of course, but do note also the evidence disclosed by the Stade 2 docu, referred to in several posts by Tienus, that suggests Sagan was motorized and Stade 2 caught it on thermal camera.