Saturday, June 30 - Tour de France, Prologue: Liege - Liege, 6,4 km

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M

MADRAZO

Nov 6, 2009
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Waterloo Sunrise said:
I don't gamble, but a free money alert for anyone who does.

Some tool is currently offering £23 to anyone willing to lay Schleck at 1000-1

In the stage 1 market, there is £37 available for anyone willing to lay Liquigas (i.e. Sagan) at tighter than 2-1.

In this market the favourite should be longer than 2-1, and Sagan is certainly not the favourite.

Someone also asking for £7 to be layed on evans at 3.4 decimal odds, another horrific miss pricing.
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Lol, the Sagan offer at 2.92 is mine :) Would make it larger if not for the risk of having bets open on betfair if something should happen. So annoying to lose money like that. So if someone offers more on this I will buy.

Anyways if Sagan is not the favourite for stage 1 then who is? Please enlighten me. In my eyes he is very clear favourite for that stage. Boasson Hagen, Gilbert, Simon etc could challenge but he is in a league of his own here.

I seriously doubt Sagan will come any higher though when the actual bookmaker odds for this stage will come out

Hopefully though your commercial for my offer will result in someone taking it :)
 
F

FellOff

May 13, 2012
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TechnicalDescent said:
Wow, just a couple of days to go now. Where did all the time go? Must be a frustrating time for riders who suspect they're not on top form - can't do anything about it now. Just have to wait and hope for the best. I think Fab will know he is still a couple of percent off.
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But what about those who... ahem ... peaked too early? :eek:
 
F

Ferminal

Jul 3, 2009
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Waterloo Sunrise said:
In the stage 1 market, there is £37 available for anyone willing to lay Liquigas (i.e. Sagan) at tighter than 2-1.

In this market the favourite should be longer than 2-1, and Sagan is certainly not the favourite.

Someone also asking for £7 to be layed on evans at 3.4 decimal odds, another horrific miss pricing.
Click to expand...

Seems about right actually. Sagan @ 3.00 Gilbert/Evans @ 6.50/7 each.
 
T

The Barb

Apr 14, 2009
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Waterloo Sunrise said:
In the stage 1 market, there is £37 available for anyone willing to lay Liquigas (i.e. Sagan) at tighter than 2-1.

In this market the favourite should be longer than 2-1, and Sagan is certainly not the favourite.
Click to expand...

"Certainly not the favourite"?!?! ..... Surely he will be the clear favourite.

And less than 2-1, I would think.
 
W

Waterloo Sunrise

Sep 9, 2009
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MADRAZO said:
Lol, the Sagan offer at 2.92 is mine :) Would make it larger if not for the risk of having bets open on betfair if something should happen. So annoying to lose money like that. So if someone offers more on this I will buy.

Anyways if Sagan is not the favourite for stage 1 then who is? Please enlighten me. In my eyes he is very clear favourite for that stage. Boasson Hagen, Gilbert, Simon etc could challenge but he is in a league of his own here.

I seriously doubt Sagan will come any higher though when the actual bookmaker odds for this stage will come out

Hopefully though your commercial for my offer will result in someone taking it :)
Click to expand...

My bad - Stage 1 >< Prologue...

In that case I'd say your Sagan offer is about right - the BMC price still looks very very tight to me however.
 
T

theyoungest

Jan 11, 2010
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TechnicalDescent said:
Don't worry about Wiggins, his peak lasts for months.
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There's also such a thing as recovery, there isn't much a swimming trainer can do about that. What's the equivalent in swimming of a grand tour? I'm still a bit sceptic.

I do expect Wiggins to win the prologue though, and everyone declaring him the overall winner already.
 
M

MADRAZO

Nov 6, 2009
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Waterloo Sunrise said:
My bad - Stage 1 >< Prologue...

In that case I'd say your Sagan offer is about right - the BMC price still looks very very tight to me however.
Click to expand...

Your statements makes much more sence then :)

I also agree 3,4 for BMC is a bad price for stage 1, I think it will be possible to get around 5,0 at least.
 
N

norwegian

Sep 9, 2011
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Don`t know if it have been mentioned here, but according to the danish cycling site Feltet.dk, Sky will be riding for EBH on stage 1 and 3.
 
dlwssonic

dlwssonic

May 27, 2010
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This will be a really interesting stage, not really for the stage win but for the GC too.
We can see an early sign of who is in form and not.
Cadel might lose maybe 5 seconds to wiggins, but maybe he could gain the time back the next day.
 
dlwssonic

dlwssonic

May 27, 2010
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TechnicalDescent said:
Don't worry about Wiggins, his peak lasts for months.
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Lol peak lasting for months........
I wonder whether he will have the same strength as the GT progresses and enters the third week.
 
L

la.margna

May 5, 2009
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well, the numerous turns are a plus for Cancellara, although he's not at top level yet. On the other hand, it's such a short time-trial which often sees also fast finishers (sprinters) doing well...
 
cycladianpirate

cycladianpirate

Feb 22, 2011
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I'm not sure I'd bet against Wiggins for this. The (natural) adrenaline will be massive. [It won't last for three weeks though]. With a nod to possible weather implications, Wiggins to pip Spartacus by a second or two.
 
BeachBum

BeachBum

Jul 7, 2009
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9,130
williamp78 said:
...EBH high and looking for the white jersey at some point in first few days (if he's still young enough; i can't remember!)
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Not sure if EBH is young enough, but my guess is that Sagan will be wearing white for a few days--if he doesn't have green.
 
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