Sky and cycling's landed gentry

[lucybears]

the statement
As the season progressed I knew I couldn't stay at Garmin for reasons I can't go into.

could be anything, even an attempt to justify him breaking his Garmin contract by suggesting there was a long standing (before he was offered loads of money) reason to do so, but (as there probably wasn't) he could not think of anything else to say but " I can't go into"

 

[mc_mountain]

agree it could be anything, and your explanation sounds more probable than mine...

 

[Anonymous]

could be anything, even an attempt to justify him breaking his Garmin contract by suggesting there was a long standing (before he was offered loads of money) reason to do so, but (as there probably wasn't) he could not think of anything else to say but " I can't go into"

Garmin team coach didnt have ipod docks.. and they threatened to make him wear white socks..

 

[Galic Ho]

What a ridiculuous thing to say at this point.



Hushovd? Petacchi?



Again, really? Sure if you are completely naive and only believe winning a Grand Tour is a 'great honour'.
Look at Cavendish, not only is he likely to take more wins than anyone else, he is likely to be there or thereabout in Milan San Remo once again (a one-day monument dont forget) as well as being favourite for the Green jersey.

I know you suggested bianchigirl was being ridiculous. Take a look in the mirror! For wins Hushovd and Pettachi are no threat to Cav, but his teammate Greipel is. Naive, not Bianchigirl. One of the few realists from your neck of the woods who doesn't lose it with national patriotic fervor who keeps it real and calls it as it is. Wiggins has had one season that was tops. Sure give him this year, but the writing suggests he won't do anything to top last year.

Then we have this:

I think he will wear pink in the giro winning the prologue and the hilly time trial, will win in flanders, and the amstel gold, before winning the tour de france, and crowning a fine season with a world championship after jumping out of cavs lead out train and going for it alone with 2k to go..

now pass me another drink.. hic..

burp...

I do hope you were joking. Even aussiecyclefan94 isn't that patriotic to suspend all common sense. I'm tempted to side with you being serious given your unusual but understandable unconditional support and blindness towards Wiggins. As has been suggested numerous times, he is alright, but he isn't that good. A Brit will not win this years worlds. Cav will be marked more than anyone else. Take a look in the World Champ thread and 2010 predictions thread for an idea of who will.

 

[Anonymous]

Then we have this:

I do hope you were joking. Even aussiecyclefan94 isn't that patriotic to suspend all common sense. I'm tempted to side with you being serious given your unusual but understandable unconditional support and blindness towards Wiggins. As has been suggested numerous times, he is alright, but he isn't that good. A Brit will not win this years worlds. Cav will be marked more than anyone else. Take a look in the World Champ thread and 2010 predictions thread for an idea of who will.

clearly i need to make my humour a little more obvious.. did the hic, burp, drink comment not give it away.

As for my unconditional support and blindness, i think thats a little unfair. What i will do, is argue in a riders favour when the doping community go down the "came fourth from nowhere - doper" argument, with little to back it up, and will argue ways in which his improvement could be reasonable, as I will do for other riders where i think the allegations are reactive rather than pro-active. I almost take offence. I know my grammar isnt the best and I sometimes struggle to convey my opinions, but that is medical rather than intelligence based. Credit me with a little up top..

As for your "A Brit will NOT win the worlds." you state that rather as a matter of fact, rather than of opinion. Are you a fortune teller?

I have looked at the worlds thread, and some put up reasonable arguements, some put up more personal opinions that I think are unrealistic. None of us know the future, most of us laughed if it was suggested that cadel would win this year. Again, the worlds thread is a collection of opinions NOT FACTS.

Personally, it is my opinion that Cav will be going to Sky at some point in the future and as a result Dave Brailsford, team GB, and the britians on team sky will be practising hard at some point to help try and win Mark the world championship. Again, opinion, with some foundation. NOT FACT.

Thank you

 

[mc_mountain]

clearly i need to make my humour a little more obvious.. did the hic, burp, drink comment not give it away.

Dim the humour was delightfully subtle but was still obvious I thought. Also an nice antidote to the absolutes some posters seem to deal in.

As Dim is suggesting by all means make predictions, but be wary of making guarantees.

 

[bianchigirl]

And there was me assuming that, because we're all posting on an internet forum of our own free will, it's taken as read that - unless we're involved in a tipping game/fantasy league - anything we offer here is opinion and not fact

One question dim - let's say Cavendish goes to Sky, whose stated aim is to win the TdF. Where exactly does he fit in to a team that is focused above all else on a GT win? His victories at Columbia have come off the back of a superbly well drilled train - netting stage wins for Cavendish is their raison d'etre.How does a well drilled train fit with the ambitions of Wiggins (a rider who left Columbia because he didn't want to be Cavendish's lead out man) and the team as a whole? After all, orthodoxy says you can win the Tour or you can win stages with a sprinter - not both (which is why it will be interesting to see whether Astana take Davis to the TdF at all). So how does Cavendish win the Worlds with a non existent train - or when does that lead out team train together to get to the level of delivery Cavendish already enjoys?

 

[taiwan]

Are Sky and British Cycling not parts of the same organisation? Surely they'll be able to put together a train for Cav when they could possibly win the Worlds. Wiggins, Thomas, Swift, (is Millar banned?) Kennaugh, Cummings...

 

[bianchigirl]

Can't see Wiggins wanting to lead out Cavendish...
HYPOTHESIS ALERT:
British Cycling can build a lead out train but can they build an effective one? Sure, should Cavendish move to Sky he'll be riding more consistently with riders who might be required to lead him out but when is the question? Can't see him getting a ride at the TdF for example with Wiggins and EBH in the squad. Still, the next Worlds should suit him better so I guess we'll see at the end of next season - provided he stays fit.

 

[taiwan]

Maybe haven't read enough previous posts, but I don't expect Cavendish to go to Sky, just that there's enough of an incentive for all parties to get people to work for him. I'll read the other posts now.

 

[bianchigirl]

I think Cavendish would be crazy to go to Sky, but if they offer him a great deal then I'm sure he can be persuaded. As I say, if he does go I just don't see where he fits into a TdF squad and, like it or not, TdF stage wins and the MJ are the biggest prize for a sprinter on the world scene.

 

[maltiv]

Are Sky and British Cycling not parts of the same organisation? Surely they'll be able to put together a train for Cav when they could possibly win the Worlds. Wiggins, Thomas, Swift, (is Millar banned?) Kennaugh, Cummings...

Come on, it might end up in a sprint but definitely not with 150 people as some people seem to believe. This is the Worlds, not a flat Tour de France stage where 80 % of the riders are not interested in doing anything else than resting...

It will be a group of maximum 20-30 riders (probably much less), and there won't be any "trains" ala columbia.

 

[Kingsley A]

And there was me assuming that, because we're all posting on an internet forum of our own free will, it's taken as read that - unless we're involved in a tipping game/fantasy league - anything we offer here is opinion and not fact

One question dim - let's say Cavendish goes to Sky, whose stated aim is to win the TdF. Where exactly does he fit in to a team that is focused above all else on a GT win? His victories at Columbia have come off the back of a superbly well drilled train - netting stage wins for Cavendish is their raison d'etre.How does a well drilled train fit with the ambitions of Wiggins (a rider who left Columbia because he didn't want to be Cavendish's lead out man) and the team as a whole? After all, orthodoxy says you can win the Tour or you can win stages with a sprinter - not both (which is why it will be interesting to see whether Astana take Davis to the TdF at all). So how does Cavendish win the Worlds with a non existent train - or when does that lead out team train together to get to the level of delivery Cavendish already enjoys?

+1ish

Why would Cav ever want to leave a team with sprint wins as their primary objective and him as the 1st choice sprinter? I got the impression in 08 that he wasn't happy with GB cycling pushing him to leave the Tour even earlier than he did to prepare for Beijing so I don't think he has the loyalty to Brailsford et al. that Wiggins does. Unless Columbia change their objectives or Cav wants to develop into a different sort of rider (he has said he's making a target of Flanders this yeah so maybe he has long term ambitions to move from pure sprinter to classics rider a la Boonen?)

Cav is the focus at Columbia but it seems clear that the focus at Sky is going to be Wiggins in the short term, possibly Thomas or Cummings in the medium term and Kenaugh (maybe plus younger bro) in the long term. I have the feeling that Sky want Cav far more than Cav wants Sky.

The only part of the quoted post I would disagree with is the final sentence. We have rarely seen Cav win without a train because Columbia are so well organised but we have seen it. TdF 08 and ToM 09 both spring to mind. The problem he will have winning the worlds isn't the lack of a train but the fact no other strong nation will want a group sprint against him and so GB will have to chase down every break alone. If GB can keep the peloton together until the finish I would rate Cav's odds at better than 50% but I don't see them having the strength to do that in the next few years.

 

[taiwan]

Come on, it might end up in a sprint but definitely not with 150 people as some people seem to believe. This is the Worlds, not a flat Tour de France stage where 80 % of the riders are not interested in doing anything else than resting...

It will be a group of maximum 20-30 riders (probably much less), and there won't be any "trains" ala columbia.

Yes, probably right.

 

[issoisso]

The only part of the quoted post I would disagree with is the final sentence. We have rarely seen Cav win without a train because Columbia are so well organised but we have seen it. TdF 08 and ToM 09 both spring to mind.

In the Tour 08 he had a Ciolek in fabulous form leading him out, as well as a Kirchen in the form of his life. He arguably had a better leadout than in 09. Looking back at the replays of TdF08 sprints, Ciolek was faster than any other sprinter, save for Cavendish. He couldn't wish for a better leadout.

 

[bianchigirl]

Maltiv, that was kind of my point - Cavendish is going to have to learn to be a cannier sprinter out of a small group because, at the moment, he's pretty much all about the lead out. But he has time to mature and he has some good advisers at Columbia to help him. Totally agree KA - Sky need him far more than he needs them but really have little to offer, at least in a set up built to win the TdF.

It's a real shame Ciolek & Greipel are on the same team as they're about the most credible sprint opposition around at the moment

 

[blackcat]

BG, Ciolek was at Milram for 2009, but Milram had a strict no doping policy because of the German environment. See Gerdemann and Ciolek, were half the riders they were previously.

 

[Anonymous]

I think Cavendish would be crazy to go to Sky, but if they offer him a great deal then I'm sure he can be persuaded. As I say, if he does go I just don't see where he fits into a TdF squad and, like it or not, TdF stage wins and the MJ are the biggest prize for a sprinter on the world scene.

Three years time will Cav still be a young sprinter who needs a lead out train, and is after grand tour stage wins, or will he have developed. Hes got one monument, im sure its not the only one he is after.

 

[mc_mountain]

I agree that it's difficult to see Cav going to Sky, but that might not stop Sky courting him and DB looking at assist however he can if Cav goes seriously for the WC.

They only way I can see Cav winning the worlds is if a brit can make it into an early break negating the need for them to chase themselves, then it all comes back say 1/2 the way through the race. Then during the next 1/4 of the race Cav is paced by remaining brits as the main group gets wittled down (including Cav's spent support riders). If he can make it into the group that's max 30 as suggested above, everyone will want to avoid a bunch finish so there will be lots of attacks and a lot of energy trying to bring them back. Either on his own or with one support rider (to either attack with 2-5k to go or in the 'Hincapie role'), can sit at the back and let others chase.

By the time it all gets turned up at the finish everyone will be as shattered as Cav and he can win the sprint on pure speed. Probable - no, possible - maybe, optimistic - yes!

 

[lucybears]

mmm....
when is the Worlds ?
when does Cavs present contract end ?
how much money could Sky offer him ?
what would it be worth to Cav & Sky if he won ?
are the Worlds run by any riders on national pride or on Trade Team considerations ? (why does Italy spring to mind ?)

It's a real shame Ciolek & Greipel are on the same team as they're about the most credible sprint opposition around at the moment

do the posters here know what they're talking about ?
is Robbie right about the course when he says the worlds will be tougher than expected ... ?

so many questions, so many answers ... that are better answered with hindsight.

Such is life

 

[Anonymous]

mmm....
when is the Worlds ? October, but the thing is, ever since cadel won we are desperate for another one as quick as possible so we dont have to listen to the aussies gloating any longer.
when does Cavs present contract end ? erm, at a guess 2011
how much money could Sky offer him ? a lot?
what would it be worth to Cav & Sky if he won ? A lot, probably more to cav than sky, not sure the british public understand the concept of the world championships..
are the Worlds run by any riders on national pride or on Trade Team considerations ? (why does Italy spring to mind ?) CAn you even trust the riders from certain countries to ride for that country..?

do the posters here know what they're talking about ? Sometimes
is Robbie right about the course when he says the worlds will be tougher than expected ... ? No, because as soon as you say they are tougher than expected, then naturally they become expected to be tougher, therefore the expectation has now changed, its a perpetual circle..

so many questions, so many answers ... that are better answered with hindsight.

Such is life

I would add that Cadel Evans will win the 2009 world championship.. And thats a fact! And anyone who disagrees with me is a fool

 

[lucybears]

I would add that Cadel Evans will win the 2009 world championship.. And thats a fact! And anyone who disagrees with me is a fool

I would really enjoy those beers, even if I did have to buy...

 

[Kingsley A]

In the Tour 08 he had a Ciolek in fabulous form leading him out, as well as a Kirchen in the form of his life. He arguably had a better leadout than in 09. Looking back at the replays of TdF08 sprints, Ciolek was faster than any other sprinter, save for Cavendish. He couldn't wish for a better leadout.

I agree that that was true for 3 out of the 4 sprints that he won. There was however one sprint where Cav was boxed in but managed to find a way through the middle when the stage looked lost to him with about 500 metres to go.

I'm not a fanboy but he has shown on the odd occasion where the team hasn't given him the leadout he wanted that he can still pick a wheel and come round them at the end to take the win. He just usually hasn't had to.

Much as I don't think it will, I do hope the 2010 WC will end in a bunch sprint I hope it will, just because it will be the first time we've ever seen him and Greipel go head to head. Add in that it's an uphill finish and Thor is generally stronger on those plus potentially Farrar will have improved and we could see a great sprint finish.

This is wishful thinking mind. A select group with a Gilbert or Haussler (if he's allowed to be Aussie) type rider taking the win seems more likely.

 

[bianchigirl]

lucybears, clearly have skipped a year when it comes to all sprinters who aren't Cavendish. And definitely don't know what I'm on about after a few VATs