if it stands to reason that if he was doping in august-september 2011 he is likely doping now, why is that even a query? If the bilharzia could mask blood doping back then, he has now a new, post-2011 baseline, whether based on clean or dirty figures. The old baseline must be chucked out because it's irrelevant. As has been mentioned before, the biopassport is more effective as a method of moderating doping than preventing it. Froome isn't an untalented guy. But what he showed in 2008-9 does not make what happened in 2011 any less ridiculous.
the thing that's suspicious is that chris froome is now the best climber in the world, and one of the best time triallists. That in itself sets alarm bells ringing. Because no matter how much re-appraisal we give to the pre-bilharzia performances, he showed the talent to be a pretty decent top tier rider. That's not the same as showing the talent to be a gt winner and one of the top 5 riders in the world. Rigoberto urán, a couple of months later, finished on the podium of lombardia, and was more active in the final week in the 2009 tour than froome was in 2008. He's a guy that people had been raving about the potential of since he arrived at unibet in 2007 and some even earlier than that. Froome was a guy with potential, but that's all. The 2011 transformation did not constitute 'normal progression' unless you completely reinvent what happened between may 2009 and august 2011, and draw an exponential curve.
I kind of want to know what the racial overtones that got pulled from your post were now, but at the same time i quite like you and don't want to have to jeopardise that.........
- his improvement came during the contract negotiation phase. Even if we accept he would have got a wt gig elsewhere, he certainly earnt a bunch more money on his 2012-date contract as a result of it
- he then struggled with the disease again for a number of months, but it was gone again before he could prepare for the tour, enabling him to be at peak form at the biggest race of the year
- sky have been predicated on a british tour winner within 5 years and, in 2010, we could not be sure that wiggins could or would become that. Froome was way down the list of candidates, and suddenly vaulted to the top. What's more, british cycling had been carefully grooming riders, meaning there are more british talents at this point than at almost any other point in living memory. Certainly in my lifetime. With british interest, sponsor money and media coverage heading towards an all time high, chris froome - who has nothing to do with british cycling and was hired because of his passport - has just coincidentally happened to turn up at the right time to make maximum profit.
Again, none of these are evidence of doping, but when put together they provide a motive, which has to be at the root of all good mysteries. The other thing that i simply can't unsee is that froome's transformation has come at the heart of a number of other transformations, mighty improvements and domination in a style hitherto only seen in the dirtiest of dirty teams - banesto, gewiss, mapei and us postal (with apologies to saunier duval). As per usual, each tree may be explicable (though froome's tree is a freaking giant sequoia), but the forest that has emerged around sky's activities means that the number of leaps of faith required to believe the "all plausible and clean" argument in all cases continues to ever increase, while the opposite still requires just one: Starting from the assumption "there is doping".
And as any insurance professional can tell you, there's only so much risk you can accept before you have to decline. How many leaps of faith are we all willing to take?