Pentacycle said:
Totally agree that Bilharzia could've been a cover-up for blood doping, but not in the past year or so. If he was blood doping for the 2011 Vuelta, then he surely must be doing it now as well. What do you for example think of riders like Scarponi or Hesjedal preparing for the Giro? Scarponi podiumed Catalunya at first, and then mysteriously weakened some time before Trentino, after which he was suddenly one of the best again in LBL. Same goes for Hesjedal; he was a big force in LBL, but he hasn't performed at all before, and now after that race in Romandie. Big chance they've both been collecting BB's over the past few weeks, and injecting some of the blood of them already. Froome however hasn't had any sudden, unexpected decrease in performance.
And it's also a fact that in East-Africa doping is widespread among long-distance runners. However,I disagree he's definitely been doping in his early years. Did he deliver such great performances around that time? He was actually very equal to some others riders from '85-'86-'87 like, Fuglsang, Frank, Mollema, Zeits, Morkov, Gautier, Bole. Nothing suspicious there, he had a good first pro year in 2008, and a decent 2009, he picks up that parasite. After that clears up, he continues his progression as if he hadn't been ill. Nothing suggests in 2007 he couldn't reach the level he has now, just like for example Mollema and Fuglsang were big talents in that time. Or were they doping as well?
If it stands to reason that if he was doping in August-September 2011 he is likely doping now, why is that even a query? If the bilharzia could mask blood doping back then, he has now a new, post-2011 baseline, whether based on clean or dirty figures. The old baseline must be chucked out because it's irrelevant. As has been mentioned before, the biopassport is more effective as a method of
moderating doping than
preventing it. Froome isn't an untalented guy. But what he showed in 2008-9 does not make what happened in 2011 any less ridiculous.
airstream said:
He beat them exactly like the best climber in the world should beat 1 time GT top-10 finishers. It was in no way a sensation. If Froome hadn't beaten them, one should have been really surprised.
The thing that's suspicious is that Chris Froome is now the best climber in the world, and one of the best time triallists. That in itself sets alarm bells ringing. Because no matter how much re-appraisal we give to the pre-bilharzia performances, he showed the talent to be a pretty decent top tier rider. That's not the same as showing the talent to be a GT winner and one of the top 5 riders in the world. Rigoberto Urán, a couple of months later, finished on the podium of Lombardia, and was more active in the final week in the 2009 Tour than Froome was in 2008. He's a guy that people had been raving about the potential of since he arrived at Unibet in 2007 and some even earlier than that. Froome was a guy with potential, but that's all. The 2011 transformation did not constitute 'normal progression' unless you completely reinvent what happened between May 2009 and August 2011, and draw an exponential curve.
I kind of want to know what the racial overtones that got pulled from your post were now, but at the same time I quite like you and don't want to have to jeopardise that.
JimmyFingers said:
As I said, there is a plausible narrative that Froome's development is clean.
As for weight loss drugs, its pure conjecture really: WADA make some noises about certain drugs and we go 'ooh, I wonder if that is what Sky are on' with only the vaguest understanding of the drug and its affects. It underlines how little is actually known. 6 months ago Sky were definitely on EPO and bags, then it was AICAR, then AICAR and GWwhatsit, now people are mentioning genedoping.
I don't have a clue, I don't have any answers as to what the riders might be doing if they are doping, but I do think there are feasible narratives that they are doing it clean. At the end of the day you don't need a drug to lose weight.
There is a plausible narrative that Froome's development is clean, but there's a plausible narrative that Mosquera's was too (and I fell for it, more because like many of the Sky fans - not necessarily including yourself - I was more willing to believe the justifications for Mosquera because he was a rider I liked, always animating races and always coming up just short because he was too limited to pull off the win). Riders and teams are always tweaking things, trying small changes to see what works. I have plenty of time for you and you've indicated in the past that the same goes for you, so let's cut to the chase: this thread - and the accompanying Sky megathread - is always going to be a mess. I don't think we can pay much attention to the arguments that are made out of silliness, pedantry or just for the sake of an argument - and to prove this I would like to show you
David Moncoutié with a raised single fist and
Pierrick Fedrigo with the full Froome celebration. And let's also say, that while there are a lot of downright crazy conspiratorial arguments being made in favour of Sky doping here (which I see as unnecessary given the presence of much stronger arguments) there are equally some bizarre justifications for Sky performances (arguments that could equally be used to say that Contador or Valverde are clean, which is what was the point of my Valverde post yesterday that airstream appears to have muddled, and as we know would be patently ridiculous since Contador and Valverde are known dopers). But even trimmed of all that fat, there are a lot of reasons that Sky's performances are suspicious. Let's do ourselves the favour of not contributing another hundred posts on these threads going through the interpretation of 2008-9 Froome and the effects of bilharzia again. Yes, there's a plausible out for it, but it requires a few leaps of faith while the opposite argument requires just one. And a few times I have admitted that the various things about Froome's history make me feel a bit less concerned about him... but the problem is there are also a lot of facts that I find hard to ignore:
- his improvement came during the contract negotiation phase. Even if we accept he would have got a WT gig elsewhere, he certainly earnt a bunch more money on his 2012-date contract as a result of it
- he then struggled with the disease again for a number of months, but it was gone again before he could prepare for the Tour, enabling him to be at peak form at the biggest race of the year
- Sky have been predicated on a British Tour winner within 5 years and, in 2010, we could not be sure that Wiggins could or would become that. Froome was way down the list of candidates, and suddenly vaulted to the top. What's more, British Cycling had been carefully grooming riders, meaning there are more British talents at this point than at almost any other point in living memory. Certainly in my lifetime. With British interest, sponsor money and media coverage heading towards an all time high, Chris Froome - who has nothing to do with British Cycling and was hired because of his passport - has just coincidentally happened to turn up at the right time to make maximum profit.
Again, none of these are evidence of doping, but when put together they provide a motive, which has to be at the root of all good mysteries. The other thing that I simply can't unsee is that Froome's transformation has come at the heart of a number of other transformations, mighty improvements and domination in a style hitherto only seen in the dirtiest of dirty teams - Banesto, Gewiss, Mapei and US Postal (with apologies to Saunier Duval). As per usual, each tree may be explicable (though Froome's tree is a freaking Giant Sequoia), but the forest that has emerged around Sky's activities means that the number of leaps of faith required to believe the "all plausible and clean" argument
in all cases continues to ever increase, while the opposite still requires just one: starting from the assumption "there is doping".
And as any insurance professional can tell you, there's only so much risk you can accept before you have to decline. How many leaps of faith are we all willing to take?