Stage 19: Friday, May 25: Treviso-Alpe di Pampeago. 198km

[Armchair Cyclist]

I suppose Kreuziger, Tiralongo and Rujano are all free to get in the break now, but I wouldn't bet on them being able to pull it off. Maybe Tiralongo.

Tiralongo is only at 4'13": UCI points dictate that they won't let him do anything to threaten moving up a couple of rungs.

 

[nesocip]

Basso has to make a difference either here on the last climb or on the penultimate climb of the penultimate stage. I dont think he is able to drop anyone on the stelvio only by grinding it away. And in case he drops them on the mortirolo he will need a minute or even more on the top in order to start the stelvio without people sucking his wheels, so i dont think he fancies that option.

So i expect him to grind really hard tomorrow and put 40ish secs into everyone except maybe pozzo, who he doesnt really care about anyways.

 

[Froome19]

Basso has to make a difference either here on the last climb or on the penultimate climb of the penultimate stage. I dont think he is able to drop anyone on the stelvio only by grinding it away. And in case he drops them on the mortirolo he will need a minute or even more on the top in order to start the stelvio without people sucking his wheels, so i dont think he fancies that option.

So i expect him to grind really hard tomorrow and put 40ish secs into everyone except maybe pozzo, who he doesnt really care about anyways.

I wonder how many people on here have read/seen about previous stages on the Stelvio.
Just because it doesnt look all that steep, trust me it will be utter carnage...

 

[Lexman]

Was it on the Stelvio where he (Basso) won and beat Evans a few years ago?

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

I dont think he is able to drop anyone on the stelvio only by grinding it away.

The length and evenness of the climb are perfectly suited to a diesel trying to get rid of a flying midget like JRod.

 

[nesocip]

Was it on the Stelvio where he (Basso) won and beat Evans a few years ago?

That was Zoncolan, a different kind of a beast.

 

[Froome19]

Was it on the Stelvio where he (Basso) won and beat Evans a few years ago?

No, the last time the Stelvio was climbed was in 2005, when Basso capitulated and Rujano won.

 

[Lexman]

Thanks Froome19 & Nesocip!

 

[Mellow Velo]

No, the last time the Stelvio was climbed was in 2005, when Basso capitulated and Rujano won.

He did?
I think you'll find it was Ivan Parra, who took his second stage win.

Basso had a major touch of the Rujanos, that day.

 

[Pippo_San]

He did?
I think you'll find it was Ivan Parra, who took his second stage win.

Basso had a major touch of the Rujanos, that day.

Yep he lost around 40 mins on that stage...then the next stages he went berserk that was the good ole RoboBasso winning ITTs...

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Actually, the last time the Stelvio was climbed was in July 2010.

Part 1
Part 2

It was a splendid sight - the GPM leader a genuine contender who went solo on the first climb of the day, then attacking at the base of the Stelvio, before being caught by the race leader, a duel ensued, before the maglia rosa eventually triumphed. And to think, at the same time, we were all watching a blossoming bromance of passive racing on the Tourmalet. Here you have a historic climb being used the way it should - as a focal point of the race, for racing on.

Having said that, I was gutted at the time, because I really, really wanted Emma to win.

Fun fact: Emma Pooley weighs more than José Rujano.

 

[Froome19]

He did?
I think you'll find it was Ivan Parra, who took his second stage win.

Basso had a major touch of the Rujanos, that day.

Sorry, I meant Rujano was first over the top of the Stelvio, indeed Parra did win the stage

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

Actually, the last time the Stelvio was climbed was in July 2010.

Part 1
Part 2

It was a splendid sight - the GPM leader a genuine contender who went solo on the first climb of the day, then attacking at the base of the Stelvio, before being caught by the race leader, a duel ensued, before the maglia rosa eventually triumphed. And to think, at the same time, we were all watching a blossoming bromance of passive racing on the Tourmalet. Here you have a historic climb being used the way it should - as a focal point of the race, for racing on.

Having said that, I was gutted at the time, because I really, really wanted Emma to win.

Fun fact: Emma Pooley weighs more than José Rujano.

thank god. Thought i was the only one

 

[will10]

No, the last time the Stelvio was climbed was in 2005, when Basso capitulated and Rujano won.

As you mentioned Ivan Parra won his 2nd stage that day, with Rujano leading the race over the Stelvio.

Bizarrely enough, with hindsight this was the day Rujano lost his chance to win the Giro '05. He started the day around 4 minutes ago having gained time in the break the day before, was allowed to get away with Parra again, but was then dropped from the break on the Foscagno, eventually coming back to Valjavec on the final climb who was in pursuit of Parra.

From there he stayed in the wheel of Valjavec to protect Parra up in front, who eventually ended up nearly two mins clear. When you pass up such an opportunity to gain time and then lose the Giro by less than a minute, it's gotta hurt. If only Rujano had clipped clear of Valjavec to gain more time on the favourites, Falco may not have won a 2nd Giro....

 

[taiwan]

Tiralongo is still 8th in the GC so there's no way he'd be allowed in a breakaway.

Tiralongo is only at 4'13": UCI points dictate that they won't let him do anything to threaten moving up a couple of rungs.

woops, for some reason I thought he lost significant time today. Ah well, better than I thought for Astana then.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Kreuziger had cramps 'all day'. I think he means from the moment Euskaltel upped the pace.

Still weird he was that bad. I mean I think he is overrated but not even I thought he would do so bad... should have had at least a top 10 / finish in the 2nd group.

 

[Parrulo]

Kreuziger had cramps 'all day'. I think he means from the moment Euskaltel upped the pace.

Still weird he was that bad. I mean I think he is overrated but not even I thought he would do so bad... should have had at least a top 10 / finish in the 2nd group.

yes i agree, while not GT winning material i think of him as the type of guy that could get himself on the 4th-10th range in a GT. did he completely miss his peak?

 

[Forunculo]

Roman is a stagnant rider since 2010. He never try anything

 

[mewmewmew13]

Very nice preview

awesome stage!

 

[Swede1]

At this point I dont think Basso will be able to pull away on any climbs. He looks to be the strongest on the climbs, but barely and he was no acceleration. If there was a Zoncolan finish then i'd say he could certainly open up gaps. I dont think this stage will be enough for him to distance jrod, hesjedal, and scarponi. I don't really know how steep/hard the stelvio is but it seems unlikely that he will be able to win the race on that one stage.

 

[karlboss]

At this point I dont think Basso will be able to pull away on any climbs. He looks to be the strongest on the climbs, but barely and he was no acceleration. If there was a Zoncolan finish then i'd say he could certainly open up gaps. I dont think this stage will be enough for him to distance jrod, hesjedal, and scarponi. I don't really know how steep/hard the stelvio is but it seems unlikely that he will be able to win the race on that one stage.

I think it would have been very different if Szmyd didn't puncture (did he puncture? I've seen suggestions it wasn't a mechanical and in reports that it was a puncture) keeps the pace high for a few kilometres more, and probably down to the same 6 before Basso has to pull at all.
For st 19, if liquigas was my team, I'd not have them do any work before the final climb except to keep themselves there, and make a plan for a super fast ascent to the finish. Why? it saves your riders, Ryder has proven to be all day strong, but cracked a little under a slightly higher pace. Rodriguez maybe given the advantage, but st 20 can be used for Rodriguez if needed.

I think Basso needs 30 seconds more on Rodriguez to be comfortable, and about a minute on Ryder. Worry about Ryder first.

I'd like to see Pozzovivo take the stage and get back into within 2 minutes of the leader.

 

[dgodave]

Not so into the "circuit", repeating the same climb.
.
Something about it feels stale. Hopefully I will have a different opinion by the finish.
.

 

[The Hitch]

I remember 2 years ago almost to the day mellow velo posted that he feared the mortirolo stage that was coming up would not be well raced as liquigas would save for one final push on the queen stage the next day.

The decision liquigas, in a very similar situation to what they find themselves in today, took however, was to go for it on the mortirolo, so that if that failed they would still have the next day to give it another go.

Which brings us to tomorrow. basso once again needs to take time and he has 2 (admitedly harder) mountain stages to do it in.

Does he save it on 19 to go for it all on 20 ? No.

Why?

Because if he tries here and it fails, he has 20 for a fallback. and if anything recovery should be a strength for him.

Conclusion. Liquigas are going to race this stage. it will be absolute carnage.

With the situation being what it is gardeccia will look like an edition of shieldprijs by comparison.

 

[Red Rick]

I remember 2 years ago almost to the day mellow velo posted that he feared the mortirolo stage that was coming up would not be well raced as liquigas would save for one final push on the queen stage the next day.

The decision liquigas, in a very similar situation to what they find themselves in today, took however, was to go for it on the mortirolo, so that if that failed they would still have the next day to give it another go.

Which brings us to tomorrow. basso once again needs to take time and he has 2 (admitedly harder) mountain stages to do it in.

Does he save it on 19 to go for it all on 20 ? No.

Why?

Because if he tries here and it fails, he has 20 for a fallback. and if anything recovery should be a strength for him.

Conclusion. Liquigas are going to race this stage. it will be absolute carnage.

With the situation being what it is gardeccia will look like an edition of shieldprijs by comparison.

You mean that the stage winner can't even go to the podium because he's given too much or what?

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

As you mentioned Ivan Parra won his 2nd stage that day, with Rujano leading the race over the Stelvio.

Bizarrely enough, with hindsight this was the day Rujano lost his chance to win the Giro '05. He started the day around 4 minutes ago having gained time in the break the day before, was allowed to get away with Parra again, but was then dropped from the break on the Foscagno, eventually coming back to Valjavec on the final climb who was in pursuit of Parra.

From there he stayed in the wheel of Valjavec to protect Parra up in front, who eventually ended up nearly two mins clear. When you pass up such an opportunity to gain time and then lose the Giro by less than a minute, it's gotta hurt. If only Rujano had clipped clear of Valjavec to gain more time on the favourites, Falco may not have won a 2nd Giro....

he lost the giro in many places that year. also in the timetrial where he was 10th fastest halfway down and then had to chance his bike 3x and lost 3 minutes all in all