State of the Peloton 2024

[Mayomaniac]

so Guillaume Martin said his Look bike is 1 full kilogram over the weight limit. can we please put an end to the "the bikes are better" excuse? Pantani's bike in 1998 was right at the weight limit. i'm sure Look isn't the only bike running heavy, the disc brakes add a substantial amount of rotational weight.

Honestly, If Lafay also did last year's puncher performances with a bike that was 1 kg heavier I fear for everyone when he's healthy again and has a Van Rysel that is just around the weight limit.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Bardet said that he was doing his best ever numbers and was struggling to get into the top 20. Crazy.

Tbf, Bardet has been saying he did his best numbers ever for quite a while now. I very much doubt he did his best numbers ever in this Tour (well, thats impossible he did) as he was quite invisible outside of stage 1 where he got the jersey and stage 20. He was not good enough to really contest these mountain breaks with Yates, Mas and Carapaz.

 

[E_F_]

Tbf, Bardet has been saying he did his best numbers ever for quite a while now.

Is this due to those improvements in training and nutrition we keep hearing about?

 

[ppanther92]

I’d honestly prefer motors because in theory it would be easier to detect and control if they actually took it seriously. Substances are way more uncontrollable.

I had the same thought about EPO actually. Harder to get the dose dangerously wrong (than Carbon Monoxide), detectable vs. literally undetectable.

 

[Nick2413]

The saying is that the Olympic champion always comes from the Tour but almost every big name of the tour outside Remco isn’t doing the Olympic TT, seems odd, what’s up with that? Haven’t looked at RR yet.

 

[jono]

The saying is that the Olympic champion always comes from the Tour but almost every big name of the tour outside Remco isn’t doing the Olympic TT, seems odd, what’s up with that? Haven’t looked at RR yet.

I'm not sure what you would consider to be the big names of the tour, but 3 of the top 10 on GC are riding the road race (Remco, Jorgenson, Gee). I'm not sure it's all that surprising, considering the parcours, that there aren't more. Lots of other Tour riders taking part.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

So what do we know about the hypotheticalVelocity-9 fuel's effect on the top riders of the peleton?
In some cases it increases sustained w/kg by about 7% (i.e. 0.4-0.5 w/kg), which is more or less the relative boost of "net" VO2 (excluding the amount needed for organs functioning). This translates to roughly 6% increase of total VO2 sustained during a climb (if we asssume 10-15% of it is needed for basic body functions in case of elite sportsmen).

However, according to some studies, power curve doesn't "scale up" nicely for a given VO2max boost (i.e. your threshold VO2 won't just increase by X % if your VO2max increases by X %): time to exhaustion will actually shorten for the same fractions of VO2max. So to obtain 6% of VO2 boost on a 40-minute climb one normally needs a considerably bigger relative VO2max boost.

I'm definitely not excluding the possibility of monster athletes like Pogacar or Vingegaard achieving 100 of VO2max when in peak form and running on top fuel (those historical high VO2max measurements probably weren't done for athletes in top form and on top fuel, i.e. LeMond even didn't have access to EPO then). But how such a boost can be possible without violating biological passport? (perfect micro doses? maybe somehow not blood related but muscles related - this would require absolutely next level stuff)

This leads us to another interesting possibility: "overclocking" engine without increase of the actual VO2max (or with only slight increase by another method), shifting lactate curve maximally to the right, more than what's though to be possible in case of high-quality training. The effect would be maintaining super high percentage of aerobic capacity (i.e. 90 %) for much longer. But how one can "program" the metabolism in such a way?

 

[Krzysztof_O]

VO2 max is just a weird metric to use. Some of the bes tin literature didn't do very well, it's pointless to compare it to presumably athletes off a huge program cause we wanna compare it to the program of 5 years ago, and gas exchange machines have completely lol variability when I did a bit of research on it a few years ago

We don't have to operate on actual VO2 max values. I gave examples of relative changes. My point is that there's two-fold optimization possible and I'm just speculating regarding those two ways (increase of max. engine power vs. increase of efficiency for longer duration).

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Ofcourse.

One thing I never really went in depth into is how much VO2 max is actually specialization into these shorter efforts raterh than longer efforts i.e. in runners the super high VO2 max dudes are middle long distance runners like 1500m dudes, and I believe there were some elite marathon dudes with pedestrian (pun uninteded) VO2 max values

Some time ago I read some paper about it, maybe will find it later. IIRC from 800 meters on VO2max was growing considerably (not surprisingly). Guys running 1500 m had a very high VO2max (but keep in mind that a significant part of their power is still anaerobic - indicated by a quick increase of uncleared lactates). I think 5k and 10k guys had the highest values but marathoners also were very high (even though they don't use VO2max the higher ceiling still helps them significantly with increasing metabolic thresholds).

 

[Krzysztof_O]

@Red Rick

Here is some article about it:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/246523020_Average_VO_2max_as_a_function_of_running_performances_on_different_distances

The highest VO2max values are from 3000 m on (actually peaking in marathon but not significant differences) and apparently VO2max is crucial to all distances from 3 km to 42 km. I don't doubt for a moment that our cycling heroes have absurd VO2max values.

 

[Sciatic]

I had the same thought about EPO actually. Harder to get the dose dangerously wrong (than Carbon Monoxide), detectable vs. literally undetectable.

You’re right about detectability, but only inattention or laziness would lead to wrong dosing of EPO —because it’s injected not oral there’s much less variability with digestion and uptake. And it’s easy to titrate the exact amount in the needle.

 

[ppanther92]

You’re right about detectability, but only inattention or laziness would lead to wrong dosing of EPO —because it’s injected not oral there’s much less variability with digestion and uptake. And it’s easy to titrate the exact amount in the needle.

Thats what I am saying actually

So EPO is probably the more safe variant of blood vector doping than inhaling Carbon Monoxide, especially when potentially this is still not researched a lot and in an somehow experimental phase.

 

[ppanther92]

@Red Rick

Here is some article about it:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/246523020_Average_VO_2max_as_a_function_of_running_performances_on_different_distances

The highest VO2max values are from 3000 m on (actually peaking in marathon but not significant differences) and apparently VO2max is crucial to all distances from 3 km to 42 km. I don't doubt for a moment that our cycling heroes have absurd VO2max values.

Wow, paper actually also shows that VO2max is an incredibly potent predictor of success (IAAF scores). For middle-distance running it almost seems like its a VO2max contest only, same as maybe muritos in cycling where W/kg is all. I remember that in cycling VO2max in many discussions is downplayed by some as merely one factor but not a tell-all. Which might be true for cycling due to the complexity of the sports.

 

[Sciatic]

Thats what I am saying actually

So EPO is probably the more safe variant of blood vector doping than inhaling Carbon Monoxide, especially when potentially this is still not researched a lot and in a somehow experimental phase.

Ah, sorry, I misunderstood.

 

[Monoxidator]

What's interesting is that the classic "Diesel Engines" of the peloton may not need incredibly high vo2 max values. I listened to an interview on the Bonk Bros podcast where Chad Haga (world tour pro & 2nd place in Unbound 2024) said he had a vo2 max of only 61 when he was tested by EF Education. I think that's a level attainable by most highly trained cyclists I think if they are lean enough.

Caveat: I know nothing about how vo2 max affects athletic performance at the highest levels. I know when my personal vo2 max is untrained at the beginning of the season, I run out of breath before my legs even start to burn. My guess is if you have a high vo2 max AND the ability to clear lactate fast, you'll be elite. If either of those is not as good, you'll have an upper limit on your performance. The assumption is Pogacar and Vingegaard are doped up to the gills and have absurd vo2 maxes. Then oxygen carrying capacity becomes less of a physiological limitation, and the limitation comes from being able to clear lactate ... maybe that's where there's been some advances lately?

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I figured.

Should always be more important in cycling than long distance running cause marathons are much closer to a 2h flat effort and they don't have 5-20 minute intervals.

Yeah, mountain stages are often decided by 10-20 minute surges, which utilize like 90-95% of VO2max so those decisive uphill attacks are almost like VO2max battles.

Still, even in longer, steady efforts max. aerobic capacity is crucial, as some researches show. If there are two long-distance runners training to reach a given aerobic threshold speed the one with higher VO2max will need to maintain lower percentage of his capacities (and this should be somewhat easier to reach in training).

 

[Krzysztof_O]

What's interesting is that the classic "Diesel Engines" of the peloton may not need incredibly high vo2 max values. I listened to an interview on the Bonk Bros podcast where Chad Haga (world tour pro & 2nd place in Unbound 2024) said he had a vo2 max of only 61 when he was tested by EF Education. I think that's a level attainable by most highly trained cyclists I think if they are lean enough.

Caveat: I know nothing about how vo2 max affects athletic performance at the highest levels. I know when my personal vo2 max is untrained at the beginning of the season, I run out of breath before my legs even start to burn. My guess is if you have a high vo2 max AND the ability to clear lactate fast, you'll be elite. If either of those is not as good, you'll have an upper limit on your performance. The assumption is Pogacar and Vingegaard are doped up to the gills and have absurd vo2 maxes. Then oxygen carrying capacity becomes less of a physiological limitation, and the limitation comes from being able to clear lactate ... maybe that's where there's been some advances lately?

61 seems really low indeed for a World Tour, hard to believe actually.

I'm not sure about "Diesel" definition. Sometimes it's assigned to guys that don't have short-lasting punch (poor anaerobic power/anaerobic capacity) but can maintain very high but steady uphill tempo. I think those guys still have very high VO2max (esp. the best of them like Almeida), it's simply that they are not that good in anaerobic and anaerobic/aerobic boundary zones.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Wow, paper actually also shows that VO2max is an incredibly potent predictor of success (IAAF scores). For middle-distance running it almost seems like its a VO2max contest only, same as maybe muritos in cycling where W/kg is all. I remember that in cycling VO2max in many discussions is downplayed by some as merely one factor but not a tell-all. Which might be true for cycling due to the complexity of the sports.

Yes, 1500 m vs VO2max has the highest accuracy. And despite this 1500 m guys have considerably lower VO2max than longer distance guys, which indicates that anaerobic component is something they need to work on as well. Unsurprisingly 5 km vs VO2max has great accuracy as well (which is probably closest to pure VO2max battle). Marathon guys have very high VO2max values but it seems that small differences between those can be compensated in Z2/Z3 training and have less impact on the outcome.

 

[Ripper]

61 seems really low indeed for a World Tour, hard to believe actually.

I'm not sure about "Diesel" definition. Sometimes it's assigned to guys that don't have short-lasting punch (poor anaerobic power/anaerobic capacity) but can maintain very high but steady uphill tempo. I think those guys still have very high VO2max (esp. the best of them like Almeida), it's simply that they are not that good in anaerobic and anaerobic/aerobic boundary zones.

61 is astronomically low at the professional level at this day and age, and I think it's a lowball estimate. My VO2 was higher in my 30s, and I definitely did not have the capacity of backfill at the world tour level

 

[repoman]

What's interesting is that the classic "Diesel Engines" of the peloton may not need incredibly high vo2 max values. I listened to an interview on the Bonk Bros podcast where Chad Haga (world tour pro & 2nd place in Unbound 2024) said he had a vo2 max of only 61 when he was tested by EF Education. I think that's a level attainable by most highly trained cyclists I think if they are lean enough.

Caveat: I know nothing about how vo2 max affects athletic performance at the highest levels. I know when my personal vo2 max is untrained at the beginning of the season, I run out of breath before my legs even start to burn. My guess is if you have a high vo2 max AND the ability to clear lactate fast, you'll be elite. If either of those is not as good, you'll have an upper limit on your performance. The assumption is Pogacar and Vingegaard are doped up to the gills and have absurd vo2 maxes. Then oxygen carrying capacity becomes less of a physiological limitation, and the limitation comes from being able to clear lactate ... maybe that's where there's been some advances lately?

Haga said he was completely cooked when he did that test after a full season of racing and no rest, implying his VO2 is most likely considerably higher.

 

[Cookster15]

61 is astronomically low at the professional level at this day and age, and I think it's a lowball estimate. My VO2 was higher in my 30s, and I definitely did not have the capacity of backfill at the world tour level

Agree 61 would be super low but we need to be careful with VO2 max. VO2 max isn't the 'be all and end all'. All else being equal a higher VO2 max allows for greater sustained power output but you can still have a lowish VO2 max but a higher FTP and clear lactate faster.

A famous example was US Olympic marathon silver medalist in 1976 - Frank Shorter. Shorter's VO2 max was only about 70.

But it would be interesting to know the VO2 max of pro sprinters and domestiques.

I am also not sure how you define a diesel ? Cadel Evans was a diesel but he had a high VO2 max.

 

[Monoxidator]

Agree 61 would be super low but we need to be careful with VO2 max. VO2 max isn't the 'be all and end all'. All else being equal a higher VO2 max allows for greater sustained power output but you can still have a lowish VO2 max but a higher FTP and clear lactate faster.

A famous example was US Olympic marathon silver medalist in 1976 - Frank Shorter. Shorter's VO2 max was only about 70.

But it would be interesting to know the VO2 max of pro sprinters and domestiques.

I am also not sure how you define a diesel ? Cadel Evans was a diesel but he had a high VO2 max.

To me it's someone that can't really sprint but can keep a tempo pace up for hours and hours and hours.

 

[Ripper]

To me it's someone that can't really sprint but can keep a tempo pace up for hours and hours and hours.

Yes, generally a 'diesel' lacks that ability to really change tempo and have those quick accelerations, but they can go steady for long periods. I thought it was a little more related to slow and fast twitch fiber composition (a really fine detail, because even a sprinter on the road, like Cav, is much more an endurance athlete than a pure fast twitch machine).

Also, VO2 is not the end all and be all, but it is a ceiling and if it is too low, then even insane lactate clearance, etc., will not save you in an aerobic sport. IMO in modern cycling, if a man has a VO2 below 70, at race weight and in race condition, then they are not going to the WT.

Lots of athletes are FoS though and sometimes just guessing at numbers. Also, he might have been confusing his absolute numbers and his VO2 with consideration of his body weight.

 

[Monoxidator]

Yes, generally a 'diesel' lacks that ability to really change tempo and have those quick accelerations, but they can go steady for long periods. I thought it was a little more related to slow and fast twitch fiber composition (a really fine detail, because even a sprinter on the road, like Cav, is much more an endurance athlete than a pure fast twitch machine).

Also, VO2 is not the end all and be all, but it is a ceiling and if it is too low, then even insane lactate clearance, etc., will not save you in an aerobic sport. IMO in modern cycling, if a man has a VO2 below 70, at race weight and in race condition, then they are not going to the WT.

Lots of athletes are FoS though and sometimes just guessing at numbers. Also, he might have been confusing his absolute numbers and his VO2 with consideration of his body weight.

I think he says in the podcast that it was taken right after a grand tour or something like that and he was exhausted and flew in without any recovery. Not sure if that would affect it.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Also, VO2 is not the end all and be all, but it is a ceiling and if it is too low, then even insane lactate clearance, etc., will not save you in an aerobic sport. IMO in modern cycling, if a man has a VO2 below 70, at race weight and in race condition, then they are not going to the WT.

it's like a middle distance runner A, who has 2'50'' 1 km pace. No matter how efficient his metabolism is he won't have a chance against an elite long-distance runner B (whose threshold pace is as good as runner A's ceiling - VO2max pace).

Agree 61 would be super low but we need to be careful with VO2 max. VO2 max isn't the 'be all and end all'. All else being equal a higher VO2 max allows for greater sustained power output but you can still have a lowish VO2 max but a higher FTP and clear lactate faster.

A famous example was US Olympic marathon silver medalist in 1976 - Frank Shorter. Shorter's VO2 max was only about 70.

But it would be interesting to know the VO2 max of pro sprinters and domestiques.

I am also not sure how you define a diesel ? Cadel Evans was a diesel but he had a high VO2 max.

Shorter's example is interesting. Either he had an absurd efficiency at aerobic (super fat-burner) and anaerobic threshold (he also had some 10k success) or...VO2max measurements aren't always that reliable. I think I saw a chart of VO2max vs 10km and marathon runs for amateurs. While the correlation was obvious disproportions were big - some rather average VO2max guy could run 10km in 40 minutes while another (with better VO2max) needed almost an hour. Then again, those inconsistencies are more probable in case of amateurs, whose trainings/mileages (and lactate curves) can vary greatly. In case of pros, one should assume that they optimize their thresholds as much as possible.

As for sprinters: they aren't exactly the same sprinters as track & field obviously. They are still endurance athletes required to cover thousands of kilometers and big cols. Would VO2max of 65 be sufficient to survive mountain stages in the time limit? Maybe so, maybe not. Still, it varies: Philipsen should have a pretty high VO2max but Cippolini for example could have been in low 60s indeed.