I've been in a small hiatus from following cycling. Is this some sort of a dream!? Is the "sunken" one (i call him like that because his name sounds like a name for a nazi battleship and his name is difficult to write) really leading the Giro after two dolomite stages by over 2 minutes ahead of Chaves? I actually like both Chaves and "Potemkin" so i cannot complain.
I remember back in 2011 when he got top 10 in Giro i was very pleased by him but i was worried he'll be put down by the dutch curse (Gesink, Mollema, Poels, Kelderman). 2015 Giro was very great for him (almost all stages in breakaway with Hesjedal) and if i remember he was relatively stable with his form outside the first week which indicates that he knows how to handle a GT well enough. Considering his relatively lack of support in the higher mountains i give him 85% of a chance to win this Giro.
I've seen complains directed to his team that he's in a Vuelta '15 Doumulin situation and we know how it ended up in his case. Astana seems to be very strong with "Klitschko" still in top 10 (a nick gave to Fuglsang after his "encounter" with Paulinho in i think TdF 2010, was it after the stage to Gap?). But their leader - Nibali seem to be a bit weak and he's known to not handle very well long range attacks (that's only my opinion). Last year he did redeem himself with a good attack on Dauphine and a nice stage win in Tour but i still don't trust him in long range tries. For now i don't think Nibali is as succesful in such attacks as Costa or Nieve (unsure about Sivtsov) who have history of winning brilliant stages. Nibbles will definitely be annoying but i doubt he'll be dangerous. I think the last two Alpine stages will depend more on Chaves rather than Nibali.
Tomorrow? Paganella isn't a very difficult climb but the rest day can sometimes be deadly (Fuente De 2012, PSM 2015) but i doubt anything will happen tomorrow. I think of a group of 5-10 people sprinting up to the finish line. I would wait till the last stage to attack on the lower and more difficult slopes of Lombardia to try regain those 2 minutes. And because the top of Lombardia is more of an uphill drag up to only 6-7% it can be more friendly for the attackers.
Of course on the before this stage to Risoul via Agnel a team like Astana should keep some sort of a pace and try to isolate the "sunken" one preferably on Agnel to drain from him as much energy as they only can while leaving something in the tank for themselves. A quick burst of energy on Agnel and then keeping some tempo in the valley leading to Risoul before everybody but Figlsang and Nibali pulling off trying to get back as much energy as they only can while staying in the time limit. Then for the last stage a possible plan would be Fuglsang trying to go for a breakaway on Vars -> isolate Kruijswijk either on Vars thanks to Fuglsang or later on Bonette if he will manage to get away -> control with Scarponi and Kangert the breakaway so the time gap won't be too big -> attack with Nibali on the lower slopes of Lombardia and try to shake off Kruijswijk -> get to Fuglsang before the easier parts after Isola 2000 -> dash to the finish line. Astana knows how to use their team tactics (Aru winning Vuelta) and Fuglsang, Scarponi and Kangert have good legs in this Giro but it will depend on Nibali's legs and Chaves too.
Geez i'm stupid, most of this post belong to fantasy cycling rather than reality.
I remember back in 2011 when he got top 10 in Giro i was very pleased by him but i was worried he'll be put down by the dutch curse (Gesink, Mollema, Poels, Kelderman). 2015 Giro was very great for him (almost all stages in breakaway with Hesjedal) and if i remember he was relatively stable with his form outside the first week which indicates that he knows how to handle a GT well enough. Considering his relatively lack of support in the higher mountains i give him 85% of a chance to win this Giro.
I've seen complains directed to his team that he's in a Vuelta '15 Doumulin situation and we know how it ended up in his case. Astana seems to be very strong with "Klitschko" still in top 10 (a nick gave to Fuglsang after his "encounter" with Paulinho in i think TdF 2010, was it after the stage to Gap?). But their leader - Nibali seem to be a bit weak and he's known to not handle very well long range attacks (that's only my opinion). Last year he did redeem himself with a good attack on Dauphine and a nice stage win in Tour but i still don't trust him in long range tries. For now i don't think Nibali is as succesful in such attacks as Costa or Nieve (unsure about Sivtsov) who have history of winning brilliant stages. Nibbles will definitely be annoying but i doubt he'll be dangerous. I think the last two Alpine stages will depend more on Chaves rather than Nibali.
Tomorrow? Paganella isn't a very difficult climb but the rest day can sometimes be deadly (Fuente De 2012, PSM 2015) but i doubt anything will happen tomorrow. I think of a group of 5-10 people sprinting up to the finish line. I would wait till the last stage to attack on the lower and more difficult slopes of Lombardia to try regain those 2 minutes. And because the top of Lombardia is more of an uphill drag up to only 6-7% it can be more friendly for the attackers.
Of course on the before this stage to Risoul via Agnel a team like Astana should keep some sort of a pace and try to isolate the "sunken" one preferably on Agnel to drain from him as much energy as they only can while leaving something in the tank for themselves. A quick burst of energy on Agnel and then keeping some tempo in the valley leading to Risoul before everybody but Figlsang and Nibali pulling off trying to get back as much energy as they only can while staying in the time limit. Then for the last stage a possible plan would be Fuglsang trying to go for a breakaway on Vars -> isolate Kruijswijk either on Vars thanks to Fuglsang or later on Bonette if he will manage to get away -> control with Scarponi and Kangert the breakaway so the time gap won't be too big -> attack with Nibali on the lower slopes of Lombardia and try to shake off Kruijswijk -> get to Fuglsang before the easier parts after Isola 2000 -> dash to the finish line. Astana knows how to use their team tactics (Aru winning Vuelta) and Fuglsang, Scarponi and Kangert have good legs in this Giro but it will depend on Nibali's legs and Chaves too.
Geez i'm stupid, most of this post belong to fantasy cycling rather than reality.
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