Strade Bianche 2023, March 4, one-day classic (men's & women's)

[Red Rick]

This is probably very subjective but if we only take the Monuments pure individual strength plays a larger role in determining the outcome of Lombardia, Flanders and (nowadays) LBL. Luck, tactics and team strength are to me more important in Roubaix than in those three races, while Sanremo is the most random of all.

Of course there are a lot of minor races where tactics and other factors matter more than in Roubaix, but it's harder to compare since the startlist are often unbalanced (stronger teams often have the upper hand).

As for Strade, I'd say it's up there with Lombardia, ie the strongest rider normally wins unless he crashes out or has some other issues.

I think many underestimate how much energy gets wasted by riders early, or how *** riders get by sprinting over one cobbled sector and then attribute it all to strength afterwards.

 

[Anderis]

I think Paris-Roubiax is the most tactical of all big races for one simple reason- it's totally flat, so drafting plays the biggest role and there are no climbs where the strongest can get away without being drafted on so much.

 

[tobydawq]

?

Both races have been very good the last 10 years ? They can coexist fine.

One thing I like in cycling is that every race has a different startlist and you don't see the best rider doing every race on the calendar. For me, it gets boring really quickly if just a few names monopolise all the top positions. I don't need to see all the biggest names in one particular race, they always have enough opportunities to race against each other during the season anyway.

Agree with both.

 

[Lequack]

I almost forgot that Valverde finished 2nd last year, behind Pog.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

I almost forgot that Valverde finished 2nd last year, behind Pog.

Perhaps it's because we didn't actually see him drop Asgreen.

 

[hayneplane]

Maybe there could be a compromise and Paris-Nice drops a day to be a 7 day race starting on the Monday making it more reasonable to do a Strade-PN combo.

 

[Nick2413]

Would be nice to see a graph of the finish type stats by race (solo vs small group etc) and how often a top 3 favorite won. Tactics and strength may be inversely proportional to a degree but strength is a given in classics. I’d also say PR is ironically the most tactical of all despite probably being the most strength based. Positioning and basic decision making play a big role in the attrition that basically defines the race.

 

[Berniece]

What about the one who will actually win this race, that is Tim Wellens.

He is going to finish pretty high this year, seemed the strongest in Kuurne. Change of scenery does him well.

 

[Lequack]

Elia Viviani in Strade

 

[Blanco]

I almost forgot that Valverde finished 2nd last year, behind Pog.

Quite amazing for a 42-year-old.
Sadly, he never won it . He had his chances in 2014, 2015 and 2018, was quite strong, but I have a feeling he tactically messed up.
In 2014 he missed the move of Kwiatkowski and Sagan, letting Cancellara close the gap (in his familiar manner ), but when Cance stopped they were gone.
In 2015 he was maybe even the strongest, but he killed himself by working on the front too much (very rare case).
In 2018 he glued himself to Sagan and Kwiatkowski, while all important moves went away. He was easily best of the rest later.

 

[tobydawq]

Quite amazing for a 42-year-old.
Sadly, he never won it . He had his chances in 2014, 2015 and 2018, was quite strong, but I have a feeling he tactically messed up.
In 2014 he missed the move of Kwiatkowski and Sagan, letting Cancellara close the gap (in his familiar manner ), but when Cance stopped they were gone.
In 2015 he was maybe even the strongest, but he killed himself by working on the front too much (very rare case).
In 2018 he glued himself to Sagan and Kwiatkowski, while all important moves went away. He was easily best of the rest later.

 

[Netserk]

Quite amazing for a 42-year-old.
Sadly, he never won it . He had his chances in 2014, 2015 and 2018, was quite strong, but I have a feeling he tactically messed up.
In 2014 he missed the move of Kwiatkowski and Sagan, letting Cancellara close the gap (in his familiar manner ), but when Cance stopped they were gone.
In 2015 he was maybe even the strongest, but he killed himself by working on the front too much (very rare case).
In 2018 he glued himself to Sagan and Kwiatkowski, while all important moves went away. He was easily best of the rest later.

Did you miss the previous convo?

You're definitely not right here. Apart from 2013, name one instance where the strongest rider didn't win.

 

[frisenfruitig]

I think Paris-Roubiax is the most tactical of all big races for one simple reason- it's totally flat, so drafting plays the biggest role and there are no climbs where the strongest can get away without being drafted on so much.

I don't understand what you are saying, PR is one of the most honest races where the strongest guys end up in front automatically. There's a reason why Boonen/Cancellara managed to win it so many times and it's not because of their sublime tactics.

 

[Barkintheeye]

Interesting take on the spectrum of tactical vs predominantly physical. Obviously no road race will be either / or but clearly some races tend to be more tactical whilst others more physical

I always thought of Paris-Roubaix as very physical, hence eg Cancellara winning a lot, while races like the Worlds or Milano-Sanremo were more tactical (maybe the right word is random but that may also be due to team tactics?).

Here is my quick, wholly subjective, non-scientific take on Strade Bianche versus some other notable one-day classics on this spectrum:

Most tactical to most physical
Milano-Sanremo (av speed around 42 kph): generally high speed and race where sprinters can contend if played properly
Ronde Van Vlaanderen (av speed around 38 kph): team tactics in advance of critical sectors where breakaways can happen
Strade-Bianche (av speed around 38 kph): similar to RVV where breakaways can happen that may be hard to bring back despite concerted team efforts
Liege-Bastogne-Liege (av speed around 36 kph): tough race mostly for smaller/climber riders, undulating course less suitable for team tactics
Paris-Roubaix (av speed around 37 kph): very tough race and even though the tarmac sections may give teams an opportunity the ensuing chaos on the cobbled sectors are likely to disrupt most team tactics.

Then again every race has tactical elements but as such elements comes down to a more individual basis - like should I cover that break or can I afford to let go of that wheel - I would think of it more physical and less tactical.

 

[Netserk]

I think the two main parameters to evaluate a Classic route are how selective it is and how complicated it is. Roubaix is the most complicated race as the main selection and the winning move can happen numerous places and in numerous ways. Flèche is about the least complicated (major) race. The new Amstel route (since 2017) has increased its complication. Bottlenecks are what makes a route simple - a selective part of the route that dominates the rest. While the Poggio is the most selective part of Milano–Sanremo, it is not selective enough to completely dominate the run-in, unlike the last hill in San Sebastian that has mostly ruined the race since 2014.

Edit: I guess you could phrase it as how open or closed a race is, but I think that is a function of the two mentioned parameters, as a closed race is both selective and simple.

 

[BR2]

Interesting take on the spectrum of tactical vs predominantly physical. Obviously no road race will be either / or but clearly some races tend to be more tactical whilst others more physical

I always thought of Paris-Roubaix as very physical, hence eg Cancellara winning a lot, while races like the Worlds or Milano-Sanremo were more tactical (maybe the right word is random but that may also be due to team tactics?).

Here is my quick, wholly subjective, non-scientific take on Strade Bianche versus some other notable one-day classics on this spectrum:

Most tactical to most physical
Milano-Sanremo (av speed around 42 kph): generally high speed and race where sprinters can contend if played properly
Ronde Van Vlaanderen (av speed around 38 kph): team tactics in advance of critical sectors where breakaways can happen
Strade-Bianche (av speed around 38 kph): similar to RVV where breakaways can happen that may be hard to bring back despite concerted team efforts
Liege-Bastogne-Liege (av speed around 36 kph): tough race mostly for smaller/climber riders, undulating course less suitable for team tactics
Paris-Roubaix (av speed around 37 kph): very tough race and even though the tarmac sections may give teams an opportunity the ensuing chaos on the cobbled sectors are likely to disrupt most team tactics.

Then again every race has tactical elements but as such elements comes down to a more individual basis - like should I cover that break or can I afford to let go of that wheel - I would think of it more physical and less tactical.

I would think that Strade is the least tactical of all, slightly in front of P-R and Liège.
Of course in any race some tactics play a role. But overall I think a race with as much gravel and short hills as Strade is a lot like a cross race: you need good technique to spend less energy, you need to have some tactics as a single rider/ that is positioning, but team strength is not important - of course it always plays SOME role, but it's just not among the important factors here. Then there's the final of Strade in which positioning might play a role, but in the end it's just pure strength that counts there.

One good indicator for how important strength is the list of guys who were when on the podium. I wanted to compile a list of their wins and results in that year, but I will have to do that later since I don't have the time now.

 

[Andre]

Does this race not suit De Lie?

 

[frisenfruitig]

Does this race not suit De Lie?

I'd love to be proven wrong but I think he's too heavy for this race.

 

[Nick2413]

Interesting take on the spectrum of tactical vs predominantly physical. Obviously no road race will be either / or but clearly some races tend to be more tactical whilst others more physical

I always thought of Paris-Roubaix as very physical, hence eg Cancellara winning a lot, while races like the Worlds or Milano-Sanremo were more tactical (maybe the right word is random but that may also be due to team tactics?).

Here is my quick, wholly subjective, non-scientific take on Strade Bianche versus some other notable one-day classics on this spectrum:

Most tactical to most physical
Milano-Sanremo (av speed around 42 kph): generally high speed and race where sprinters can contend if played properly
Ronde Van Vlaanderen (av speed around 38 kph): team tactics in advance of critical sectors where breakaways can happen
Strade-Bianche (av speed around 38 kph): similar to RVV where breakaways can happen that may be hard to bring back despite concerted team efforts
Liege-Bastogne-Liege (av speed around 36 kph): tough race mostly for smaller/climber riders, undulating course less suitable for team tactics
Paris-Roubaix (av speed around 37 kph): very tough race and even though the tarmac sections may give teams an opportunity the ensuing chaos on the cobbled sectors are likely to disrupt most team tactics.

Then again every race has tactical elements but as such elements comes down to a more individual basis - like should I cover that break or can I afford to let go of that wheel - I would think of it more physical and less tactical.

Not to nitpick but the average speed for all those races except Strade and sometimes LBL is 42-45kph. But generally a good take.

 

[Berniece]

Strong team for Soudal-Quickstep, Alaphilippe is obviously their main guy but I'm eager to see how Vansevenant and Bagioli will do.

 

[Anderis]

I don't understand what you are saying, PR is one of the most honest races where the strongest guys end up in front automatically. There's a reason why Boonen/Cancellara managed to win it so many times and it's not because of their sublime tactics.

There's also a reason why it had plenty winners "out of nowhere", like Hayman, Van Summeren or Guesdon. If you think the strongest guys end up in front "automatically", I think you may have missed or not remembered some of the more chaotic editions, like 2011 or 2016, very well.

I think I was quite clear with my point but I'll try to reiterate it: drafting is a big part of cycling and can be a reason why the strongest rider doesn't always win. A rider who's riding behind another rider experiences significantly less air resistance than someone who's leading the group- thus you can actually keep the pace of someone who is significantly stronger than you. This effect increases dramatically, the higher the velocity of a rider is. It means on lower speed sections, such as climbs, the drafting effect decreases significantly and it's easier for the strongest riders to force a selection without other riders taking advantage of drafring so much and following them. Paris-Roubaix is the only major race without any climbs, so it's also the race where it's the easiest to just "glue" yourself to a wheel of a stronger rider and not let them get away. It creates a dilemma for the strongest riders because if they ride on the front too much, someone else may take advantage of it. There are no road segments with decreased drafting effect where the strongest have easier time forcing a selection thus it becomes more important how you use your energy all throughout the race. It also means it's more difficult to predict where exactly the key moment of a race may be because it'll be dependent more on the tactical situation and less on where the most selective (aka with the highest gradient) piece of the road is.

The race being tactical doesn't mean that the rider who is the best at tactics wins. It means it can generate a tactical situation that prevents the strongest rider from winning. But statistically, the strongest rider is still the most likely to win. But 10th or 15th strongest rider has a much bigger chance of winning Paris-Roubiax than LBL or Ronde IMO. For reasons I've explained above.

 

[frisenfruitig]

There's also a reason why it had plenty winners "out of nowhere", like Hayman, Van Summeren or Guesdon. If you think the strongest guys end up in front "automatically", I think you may have missed or not remembered some of the more chaotic editions, like 2011 or 2016, very well.

I think I was quite clear with my point but I'll try to reiterate it: drafting is a big part of cycling and can be a reason why the strongest rider doesn't always win. A rider who's riding behind another rider experiences significantly less air resistance than someone who's leading the group- thus you can actually keep the pace of someone who is significantly stronger than you. This effect increases dramatically, the higher the velocity of a rider is. It means on lower speed sections, such as climbs, the drafting effect decreases significantly and it's easier for the strongest riders to force a selection without other riders taking advantage of drafring so much and following them. Paris-Roubaix is the only major race without any climbs, so it's also the race where it's the easiest to just "glue" yourself to a wheel of a stronger rider and not let them get away. It creates a dilemma for the strongest riders because if they ride on the front too much, someone else may take advantage of it. There are no road segments with decreased drafting effect where the strongest have easier time forcing a selection thus it becomes more important how you use your energy all throughout the race. It also means it's more difficult to predict where exactly the key moment of a race may be because it'll be dependent more on the tactical situation and less on where the most selective (aka with the highest gradient) piece of the road is.

The race being tactical doesn't mean that the rider who is the best at tactics wins. It means it can generate a tactical situation that prevents the strongest rider from winning. But statistically, the strongest rider is still the most likely to win. But 10th or 15th strongest rider has a much bigger chance of winning Paris-Roubiax than LBL or Ronde IMO. For reasons I've explained above.

I don't think it's necessary to explain the concept of drafting here and I don't think you understand just how challenging cobbles are. Just because PR is flat doesn't mean it isn't a hard race. Cobbles are very hard and drafting isn't a big factor on them just like on climbs. If they manage to get in a breakaway to avoid the strong guys then it's possible for someone like Vansummeren to win but generally when the strongest guys go at it you'll see maybe a handful of riders able to hold their wheel (even though cobbles are flat).

 

[glowder]

So what time does SB start East Coast time in USA?? I'm in Utah, so Mountain Time? I'm confused. Thanks for the help.

 

[Anderis]

I don't think it's necessary to explain the concept of drafting here

Perhaps it is, when you write things like:

Cobbles are very hard and drafting isn't a big factor on them just like on climbs.

How big of a factor drafting is is dependent on the velocity of riders and flat cobble sections are taken with a bigger velocity than climbs, thus drafting is a significantly more of a factor on them.

I don't think you understand just how challenging cobbles are. Just because PR is flat doesn't mean it isn't a hard race.

I've never written than Paris Roubaix is easy or not challenging. I've only said that drafting matters more because of lack of climbs and it makes the race more tactical.

 

[Barkintheeye]

There are no road segments with decreased drafting effect where the strongest have easier time forcing a selection thus it becomes more important how you use your energy all throughout the race. It also means it's more difficult to predict where exactly the key moment of a race may be because it'll be dependent more on the tactical situation and less on where the most selective (aka with the highest gradient) piece of the road is.

It's absolutely dangerous and difficult to draft on some of the cobble sections at Paris-Roubaix and it's definitely not easy. Riders are being dropped due to both lack of power, endurance and technical skills.... and mishaps eg Lampaert crash 2022, Moscon flat/crash 2021 etc.

Then maybe there is some correlation with the weather conditions. Maybe dry weather makes for a faster and more tactical race and vice versa (or maybe not)? Eg 2007 was won by Staurt O'Grady w Juan Antonio Flecha 2nd and Steffen Wesemann(?) 3rd. Course was totally dry on the day. Boonen 6th and Cancellera 19th. Clearly on paper the strongest two.

Paris-Roubaix changes dramatically with wet weather making it much more difficult, dangerous and random. Must look into that and see if there are some discernible patterns. Dry should equate to easier/faster race, more drafting but possibly more mechanicals (flats). Wet weather should be harder, slower, more technical but also more crashes.

Wouldn't think that Strade Bianche changes that much with wet weather but I'm happy to be corrected.