Strade Bianche 2023, March 4, one-day classic (men's & women's)

[frisenfruitig]

Perhaps it is, when you write things like:


How big of a factor drafting is is mostly dependent on the velocity of riders and flat cobble sections are taken with a bigger velocity than climbs, thus drafting is a significantly more of a factor on them.


I've never written than Paris Roubaix is easy or not challenging. I've only said that drafting matters more because of lack of climbs and it makes the race more tactical.

If drafting were such a big factor in PR then it wouldn't be so easy for the stronger guys (e.g. Boonen or Cancellara) to drop everyone else on them. Riding on cobbles is not the same as riding on regular flat roads. If that were the case you would see lesser riders being able to hang on, which they can't.

 

[Barkintheeye]

Not to nitpick but the average speed for all those races except Strade and sometimes LBL is 42-45kph. But generally a good take.

Stats can be misleading and I didn't check that thouroughly (here: https://www.cyclistshub.com/paris-roubaix-statistics/)

If looking into the last decade (starting 2005 w the Boonen, Cancellara years) average speeds may be higher than the historical averages.

 

[tobydawq]

Wouldn't think that Strade Bianche changes that much with wet weather but I'm happy to be corrected.

I've heard riders say that a wet Strade is so tough that it can compromise your spring.

 

[Barkintheeye]

I've heard riders say that a wet Strade is so tough that it can compromise your spring.

Yes I guess I should know. Riding dry gravel is nothing like riding a soggy mushy dirt road. Probably 20% heavier. I stand corrected. Then surely we'll find Van Aert on the podium. A 5 hrs "cyclocross" race could take the steam out of anyone... although GCN predicts a dry race

Anyone who has tried the SB course in wet conditions?

 

[Nick2413]

Stats can be misleading and I didn't check that thouroughly (here: https://www.cyclistshub.com/paris-roubaix-statistics/)

If looking into the last decade (starting 2005 w the Boonen, Cancellara years) average speeds may be higher than the historical averages.

There’s been an average speed increase of 8kph since about 2000 and BMI of average winner has dropped. I think drafting is becoming even more important with these supercharged speeds, but still a race for the big and strong.

 

[theyoungest]

Puck needs to do the recce with the Go Pro camera.......

Seems like your prayers have been answered.

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[Berniece]

Yes I guess I should know. Riding dry gravel is nothing like riding a soggy mushy dirt road. Probably 20% heavier. I stand corrected. Then surely we'll find Van Aert on the podium. A 5 hrs "cyclocross" race could take the steam out of anyone... although GCN predicts a dry race

Anyone who has tried the SB course in wet conditions?

Wasn’t the edition that Benoot won wet?

 

[tobydawq]

Wasn’t the edition that Benoot won wet?

Yes.

 

[BR2]

Okay, so I tried to look at some relations within the same season:
Result Strade - MSR - Ronde - Liège - Result WC ITT / OG ITT/ RR - Ranking of season in rider's career (PCS points)
Men's race.

MSR RvF LBL WC/OG Season Ranking
2007
1 Kolobnev - - 45 2 WCRR 2nd
2 Ljungqvist 97 45 - 24 WCRR 4th
3 Khalilov - DNF - DNF RR 3rd
2008
1 Cancellara 1 23 - 1 OGITT 2 OGRR best
2 Ballan 16 4 - 1 WCRR best
3 Gerdemann - - - best
2009
1 Löfqvist 107 - 52 33 WCRR 2nd
2 Wegmann 24 - 29 11 WCRR 6th
3 Elmiger 12 9 - - 7th
2010
1 Iglinskiy 8 8 104 - best
2 Löfqvist 27 - 29 - 5th
3 Rogers 25 5 WCITT 96WCRR 2nd
2011
1 Gilbert 3 9 1 17 WCRR best
2 Ballan 4 12 - - 6th
3 Cunego - - 16 - 7th
2012
1 Cancellara 2 DNF - 7 OGITT 106 RR 10th
2 Iglinskiy DNF 23 13 - 2nd
3 Gatto 14 45 - 13 2nd
2013
1 Moser 45 - 124 - 2nd
2 Sagan 2 2 - 7 WCITT 6 WCRR 2nd
3 Nocentini - - 14 DNF 6th
2014
1 Kwiatkowski DNF - 3 1st WC RR 4th
2 Sagan 10 16 - 43 WCRR 7th
3 Valverde - - 2 3rd WCRR 2nd
2015
1 Stybar 56 9 42 43 WCRR best
2 van Avermaet 19 3 - 23 WCRR 4th
3 Valverde 20 - 1 5 WCRR best
2016
1 Cancellara 31 2 - 1OGITT 34 OG RR 7th
2 Stybar 142 8 - OG DNF 45 WCRR 4th
3 Brambilla 80 - - - best
2017
1 Kwiatkowski 1 - 3 11 WCRR 2nd
2 van Avermaet 21 2 11 6 WCRR best
3 Wellens 18 - 35 110 WCRR 2nd
2018
1 Benoot - 8 23 DNF 2nd
2 Bardet - - 3 2 2nd
3 Van Aert - 9 - - 5th
2019
1 Alaphilippe 1 - 16 28 best
2 Fuglsang - - 1 12 best
3 Van Aert 6 14 - - 4th
2020
1 Van Aert 1 2 - 2 WCRR 2 WCITT Covid
2 Formolo 16 - - -
3 Schachmann - 98 DNF 9 WCRR
2021
1 Van der Poel 5 2 0 8 WCRR best
2 Alaphilippe 16 42 2 1 WCRR 3rd
3 Bernal - - - - 2nd
2022
1 Pogacar 5 4 - 6 WCITT 19WCRR best
2 Valverde - - 7 - not top 10
3 Asgreen - 23 - - 4th

So, what did I do all this for? I have no idea. Because I wanted to get an idea in numbers of how much luck is involved in being on the podium in Strade.

Of 48 seasons 26 were among the best or second best rider's season that year. In my eyes it shows that the Strade result was not a fluke and not a lucky hit.

The three monuments I looked at are MSR - because it is a monument that is so close to Strade that it can be an indicator of form if someone does well in both races in one year, LBL because it is basically a longer Strade without the sandy parts, and the Ronde, because it's a longer Strade with cobbles instead of gravel. The amount of top10 that the Strade medallists got in those races hint at the fact that it is indeed not luck you need.

Then I looked at the WC and OGs because those are one day races that are done with an entirely different team - and it still shows a bunch of WC and Olympic medals among the Strade podium guys, and even a bit more if you take the top10 into account. This indicates that these are really incredibly strong riders even if they ride without their trade team, that is, without their tactics.
Of course there are tactically apt riders who are just good at that with or without the team. But I think if one looks at those factors above in addition to each other, they show at least that the Strade medallists are incredibly strong riders, or, if they are somewhat "lesser" names, had amazing seasons in that year.

Another aspect to look at would be to count the number of ex crossers/ mtbs among those names.

 

[Salvarani]

Wasn’t the edition that Benoot won wet?

Yes and he was very good the rest of the spring.

 

[Lequack]

Weather for the weekend will be mostly sunny, up to 13C, slight wind of 10kmh.

 

[RedheadDane]

So, what did I do all this for? I have no idea. Because I wanted to get an idea in numbers of how much luck is involved in being on the podium in Strade.

Because you wanted to play around with the different font colours?

 

[Sciatic]

Okay, so I tried to look at some relations within the same season:
Result Strade - MSR - Ronde - Liège - Result WC ITT / OG ITT/ RR - Ranking of season in rider's career (PCS points)
Men's race.

MSR RvF LBL WC/OG Season Ranking
2007
1 Kolobnev - - 45 2 WCRR 2nd
2 Ljungqvist 97 45 - 24 WCRR 4th
3 Khalilov - DNF - DNF RR 3rd
2008
1 Cancellara 1 23 - 1 OGITT 2 OGRR best
2 Ballan 16 4 - 1 WCRR best
3 Gerdemann - - - best
2009
1 Löfqvist 107 - 52 33 WCRR 2nd
2 Wegmann 24 - 29 11 WCRR 6th
3 Elmiger 12 9 - - 7th
2010
1 Iglinskiy 8 8 104 - best
2 Löfqvist 27 - 29 - 5th
3 Rogers 25 5 WCITT 96WCRR 2nd
2011
1 Gilbert 3 9 1 17 WCRR best
2 Ballan 4 12 - - 6th
3 Cunego - - 16 - 7th
2012
1 Cancellara 2 DNF - 7 OGITT 106 RR 10th
2 Iglinskiy DNF 23 13 - 2nd
3 Gatto 14 45 - 13 2nd
2013
1 Moser 45 - 124 - 2nd
2 Sagan 2 2 - 7 WCITT 6 WCRR 2nd
3 Nocentini - - 14 DNF 6th
2014
1 Kwiatkowski DNF - 3 1st WC RR 4th
2 Sagan 10 16 - 43 WCRR 7th
3 Valverde - - 2 3rd WCRR 2nd
2015
1 Stybar 56 9 42 43 WCRR best
2 van Avermaet 19 3 - 23 WCRR 4th
3 Valverde 20 - 1 5 WCRR best
2016
1 Cancellara 31 2 - 1OGITT 34 OG RR 7th
2 Stybar 142 8 - OG DNF 45 WCRR 4th
3 Brambilla 80 - - - best
2017
1 Kwiatkowski 1 - 3 11 WCRR 2nd
2 van Avermaet 21 2 11 6 WCRR best
3 Wellens 18 - 35 110 WCRR 2nd
2018
1 Benoot - 8 23 DNF 2nd
2 Bardet - - 3 2 2nd
3 Van Aert - 9 - - 5th
2019
1 Alaphilippe 1 - 16 28 best
2 Fuglsang - - 1 12 best
3 Van Aert 6 14 - - 4th
2020
1 Van Aert 1 2 - 2 WCRR 2 WCITT Covid
2 Formolo 16 - - -
3 Schachmann - 98 DNF 9 WCRR
2021
1 Van der Poel 5 2 0 8 WCRR best
2 Alaphilippe 16 42 2 1 WCRR 3rd
3 Bernal - - - - 2nd
2022
1 Pogacar 5 4 - 6 WCITT 19WCRR best
2 Valverde - - 7 - not top 10
3 Asgreen - 23 - - 4th

So, what did I do all this for? I have no idea. Because I wanted to get an idea in numbers of how much luck is involved in being on the podium in Strade.

Of 48 seasons 26 were among the best or second best rider's season that year. In my eyes it shows that the Strade result was not a fluke and not a lucky hit.

The three monuments I looked at are MSR - because it is a monument that is so close to Strade that it can be an indicator of form if someone does well in both races in one year, LBL because it is basically a longer Strade without the sandy parts, and the Ronde, because it's a longer Strade with cobbles instead of gravel. The amount of top10 that the Strade medallists got in those races hint at the fact that it is indeed not luck you need.

Then I looked at the WC and OGs because those are one day races that are done with an entirely different team - and it still shows a bunch of WC and Olympic medals among the Strade podium guys, and even a bit more if you take the top10 into account. This indicates that these are really incredibly strong riders even if they ride without their trade team, that is, without their tactics.
Of course there are tactically apt riders who are just good at that with or without the team. But I think if one looks at those factors above in addition to each other, they show at least that the Strade medallists are incredibly strong riders, or, if they are somewhat "lesser" names, had amazing seasons in that year.

Another aspect to look at would be to count the number of ex crossers/ mtbs among those names.

Is this meant to be relevant to discussion about the importance of rider strength vs. rider tactics in these races? I didn’t think luck was part of that discussion, since neither strength or tactics are luck (unless you count staying healthy and not crashing).?

 

[BR2]

Is this meant to be relevant to discussion about the importance of rider strength vs. rider tactics in these races? I didn’t think luck was part of that discussion, since neither strength or tactics are luck (unless you count staying healthy and not crashing).?

Well, "luck" in a race is often the result of other teams' and riders' tactics working in your favour. They might not chase you because they are playing games etc.
I don't think riders often decide to stay behind in Strade, though. If they do it's mostly because (they had really bad luck aka a puncture or) they can't keep up with the front.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I think Paris-Roubiax is the most tactical of all big races for one simple reason- it's totally flat, so drafting plays the biggest role and there are no climbs where the strongest can get away without being drafted on so much.

Drafting matter but each cyclist has to overcome cobbles resistance, which is independent of position in the group (analogically to gravity on climbs). That's why you will never see bunch sprints in Roubaix, it's about individual strength. However, if there's a small group of very strong guys (on similar level) then obviously drafting is an important factor among them.

 

[Sciatic]

Well, "luck" in a race is often the result of other teams' and riders' tactics working in your favour. They might not chase you because they are playing games etc.
I don't think riders often decide to stay behind in Strade, though. If they do it's mostly because (they had really bad luck aka a puncture or) they can't keep up with the front.

As I mentioned above, until recently only the last hour or so of Strade was televised, so I couldn’t see what happened early and mid-race to establish the lead groups already formed by the time the broadcast started.

 

[BR2]

As I mentioned above, until recently only the last hour or so of Strade was televised, so I couldn’t see what happened early and mid-race to establish the lead groups already formed by the time the broadcast started.

Hence my numbers game.

 

[Netserk]

Drafting matter but each cyclist has to overcome cobbles resistance, which is independent of position in the group (analogically to gravity on climbs). That's why you will never see bunch sprints in Roubaix, it's about individual strength. However, if there's a small group of very strong guys (on similar level) then obviously drafting is an important factor among them.

There are two social forces in cycling*. Drafting and congestion. The latter matters more the narrower the road is and the more likely sudden slowdowns are (crashes or mechanicals).

*Information could be mentioned as well, whether it's words, pacing or what line to take on a descent, but other information sources (motos, radio, power meter, gps) dominate.

Paris - Roubaix is the race where congestion matters the most throughout the day.

 

[Lequack]

Marta Cavalli is out

https://twitter.com/x/status/1631234034884919296

View: https://twitter.com/FDJ_SUEZ/status/1631234034884919296

 

[SafeBet]

That absurd crash is still bothering her after almost 8 months.
Hopefully she can come back to her best, she seemed destined to be one of the greats. Now I'm not so sure.

 

[BR2]

That absurd crash is still bothering her after almost 8 months.
Hopefully she can come back to her best, she semmed destined to be one of the greats. Now I'm not so sure.

Yeah, this statement doesn't sound too good.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Marta Cavalli is out

https://twitter.com/x/status/1631234034884919296

View: https://twitter.com/FDJ_SUEZ/status/1631234034884919296

I was hopeful on her behalf when she already returned to racing before the end of last season and was able to perform decently. Now it's a bit more worrying, though it's obviously much better to be safe than sorry instead of rushing things, especially if the issues are concussion related.

 

[theyoungest]

That absurd crash is still bothering her after almost 8 months.
Hopefully she can come back to her best, she seemed destined to be one of the greats. Now I'm not so sure.

Van Vleuten singled out Cavalli as the biggest threat to her this season. She needed her best watts ever to drop her in the Giro Rosa. It's so sad that due to a completely avoidable crash this is how it turned out.

 

[Lequack]

Elisa Longo Borghini will not be at the start of #StradeBianche due to flu

https://twitter.com/x/status/1631300100080250880

View: https://twitter.com/ElisaLongoB/status/1631300100080250880

 

[Valv.Piti]

Paris-Nice and T-A co-exist fine, but the problem really is Strade + P-N. I'd really like something to be done about that, but I have no clue how to do it. It really sucks that if youre riding P-N, its super hard for you go ride Strade as well.. on the other hand, its pretty great since you can consider Strade a superb race which randomnly fell into our lap, and now were talking about changing up the schedule a bit to combine those races easier.