Mountain Goat said:I don't think it's idiotic. It's a simple observation that, when the TDF had long time trials, there was more attacking in the mountains by the guys that can't time trial.
You are ignoring the other GTs, which feature shorter time trials and usually have more attacking than the Tour. You are also ignoring the likely possibility that the length of time trials has little to do with the amount of attacking in the mountains; it is more likely that there will be more attacking when more riders have a chance of winning the GC. Since there are very few riders who can do both a long time trial and climb well, long time trials tend to limit the number of potential winners. We saw that in spades this year when the TTT eliminated half the pre-Tour favorites from contention.
This line of reasoning also ignores those climbers who figure that they have no chance of winning the GC because of long time trials, so they never even try. A rider like Simoni was never able to do well at the Tour because there is no way he could overcome the time loss from a 60km time trial. You can say the same about a large number of the winners of the Giro and Vuelta for the last twenty years.
Mountain Goat said:Giro 09, Tours of old, and more recently 06,07,08.. all had long time trials, and all had a lot of attacking in the mountains by the climbers.
The 2006 TdF does support this at all. FLandis was the best time trialist of the contenders, and he was in great climbing shape. His goal was to win the Tour in the most boring way possible by following others on all the climbs, not taking any chances. Even though he looked to be the strongest on Alpe d'Huez, he held back because he did not need the time. Only his collapse on stage 16 forced him to throw caution to the winds. Fewer time trial kilometers would have forced him to gain time in the mountains instead of riding conservatively until his hand was forced. Also the main contenders were all fairly close to each other in ability.
In 2007 it was a free for all. There was no clear favorite. The main contenders were all excellent climbers. The amount of attacking would have been the same if there were few time trial kilometers.
Again in 2008 the contenders were all closely matched. I don't see that the length of the time trials had anything to do with the amount of attacking. Sastre won the Tour by hiding in the group for the entire Tour except for one big push on the Alpe. Evans thought he could play it safe, follow wheels on the climbs, and make up his losses in the time trials. That was hardly an exciting TDF.
A pattern is emerging here: The more riders who have a shot at winning, the more attacks in the mountains.
Mountain Goat said:Tour 09, Vuelta 09 - the time trials were indecisive, which meant the mountains didn't have a lot of attacks.
That makes absolutely no sense. The riders could not gain time in on each other in the time trials so they decided not to attempt to gain time in the mountains?
Mountain Goat said:It's a simple game of incentives, as you say, we cannot force people to attack, but we can give them incentives. If a climber wants to win the tour, they need to attack and crack the TT specialists to gain time they will lose in the long TTs.
Sure. You will give an incentive to a climber by putting him ten minutes down with two 60km time trials. That will work. In case you have not been paying attention, you might want to check out how much time can be gained by an attack in the mountains. It is not 1980 anymore. Gaining one minute in a stage is a solid gain. Two minutes is huge. WIth only two to three real opportunities per Tour to gain time in the mountains, a rider cannot erase five to six minutes lost in time trials.