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Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

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Well I read through the entire post again and I'd argue I was at least right about Bernal. And concerning Roglic, I didn't claim he was outright bad, just that he shouldn't be the favorite for a race which he indeed didn't end up winning. The problem was really just that I also trashed the guy who ended up being the one to beat him. I honestly feel like my Dumoulin and Pinot takes were even worse than the Pogacar one, because I still think at the time he was more likely to be overrated than to become...well...that. But of course the Pogacar take is the one that is by far the most spectacularly stupid looking now.
 
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Well I read through the entire post again and I'd argue I was at least right about Bernal. And concerning Roglic, I didn't claim he was outright bad, just that he shouldn't be the favorite for a race which he indeed didn't end up winning. The problem was really just that I also trashed the guy who ended up being the one to beat him. I honestly feel like my Dumoulin and Pinot takes were even worse than the Pogacar one, because I still think at the time he was more likely to be overrated than to become...well...that. But of course the Pogacar take is the one that is by far the most spectacularly stupid looking now.

I think the Pogacar take was outrageous at the time, too. I really didn't see what he could possible have done better.
 
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What‘s so special about Pogacar is also that he - at least until now, but most likely this won‘t change - has this God-given luck: it makes him avoid crashes and injuries, and keeps him healthy… He is so good in everything he does - and the things he can hardly or cannot influence, they normally all work to his liking.
 
He was able to overtake a slower rider in the second part. Asgreen had covid less than a month ago and was quite underwhelming at the Algarve ITT, even taken into account the wind changing halfway through the race.

Pogacar flew past that guy like a rocket. It didn't benefit him that much. Even if he was sitting on the wheel for 30 seconds his gain would be like 3 seconds (rough estimate of 10%). In this case it was less than that surely.
 
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Pogacar flew by that guy like a rocket. It didn't benefit him that much. Even if he was sitting on the wheel for 30 seconds his gain would be like 3 seconds (rough estimate of 10%). In this case it was less than that.
I'm not talking about the few seconds he's within a few meters of the rider in front of him, but the process of being behind a rider and his team car on a long straight road for maybe over a minute before you finally overtake him. You may think this is trivial, but it does account for a few seconds, and in this case those few seconds could make the difference compared to Asgreen or Evenepoel in KZD's example.
 
I'm not talking about the few seconds he's within a few meters of the rider in front of him, but the process of being behind a rider and his team car on a long straight road for maybe over a minute before you finally overtake him. You may think this is trivial, but it does account for a few seconds, and in this case those few seconds could make the difference compared to Asgreen or Evenepoel in KZD's example.

No, I don't think it's trivial and realize its importance. But I was talking about 30 seconds literally in the wheel. Do you think that i.e. 60 seconds at an average distance of 30 meters behind a rider will give you more than that? I don't.
 
No, I don't think it's trivial and realize its importance. But I was talking about 30 seconds literally in the wheel. Do you think that i.e. 60 seconds at an average distance of 30 meters behind a rider will give you more than that? I don't.
I'm just saying that on a long straight road, being able to overtake a rider and a car, it's a process that takes maybe a few minutes and that you could benefit 5 or 10 seconds from it. Let's say for argument's sake that he gained 7s, then he would have finished behind Asgreen and 14s from Evenepoel. That's basically a 1s/km difference and rather significant. I was talking to KZD in light of his post, hence why i quoted him.
 
I'm just saying that on a long straight road, being able to overtake a rider and a car, it's a process that takes maybe a few minutes and that you could benefit 5 or 10 seconds from it. Let's say for argument's sake that he gained 7s, then he would have finished behind Asgreen and 14s from Evenepoel. That's basically a 1s/km difference and rather significant. I was talking to KZD in light of his post, hence why i quoted him.

I generally agree with you on the role of drag but I don't regarding order of magnitude in this case. I computed that Pogacar was about 1,3 m/s faster than the guy ahead. This means that for the last minute (before overtaking) his average distance was 40 meters behind the guy ahead - this is really a lot (and I don't think we should count earlier time when he was 80 m+ behind). You won't gain 7 seconds (which is almost 12%) during a minute like that.
 
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I generally agree with you on the role of drag but I don't regarding order of magnitude in this case. I computed that Pogacar was about 1,3 m/s faster than the guy ahead. This means that for the last minute (before overtaking) his average distance was 40 meters behind the guy ahead - this is really a lot (and I don't think we should count earlier time when he was 80 m+ behind). You won't gain 7 seconds (which is almost 12%) during a minute like that.
It's more than you assume. At 50 meters behind a motorcycle, the advantage is still up to 7% less resistance. Now imagine it is a car and not a motorcycle...
 
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I didn't understand why some thought the best GT rider in the world would feel the effect of an effort done two days before. His result in the TT confirms he was fully recovered. I would stop trying to find a weakness in his game, there is none. He's very likely the best bike rider to appear in the pro peloton since I started watching this sport. And his palmares will confirm that sooner than later.
 
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It's more than you assume. At 50 meters behind a motorcycle, the advantage is still up to 7% less resistance. Now imagine it is a car and not a motorcycle...

Good that you cited the article but a given advantage in air resistance doesn't translate proportionally to a speed gain (due to other forces a rider has to overcome). The article states 12% less resistance means 2.6 sec/km (which is 2.3 sec per minute of ride, so about 4% of speed difference). Therefore 7% less resistance is probably around 2-3% of speed gain (so only about 1.2-1.8 sec per minute). Obviously a car can give more air protection (as you said) but we can't say exact numbers without some complicated calculations or simulations. Anyway, I think that's all regarding this topic: we agree on the role of air resistance but providing a reliable estimation of gains is more difficult in this case.
 
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I didn't understand why some thought the best GT rider in the world would feel the effect of an effort done three days before. His result in the TT confirms he was fully recovered. I would stop trying to find a weakness in his game, there is none. He's very likely the best bike rider to appear in the pro peloton since I started watching this sport. And his palmares will confirm that sooner than later.
I like to think that Strade served as an extra stage to Pog's (and other riders who rode Strade as well) Tirreno with a rest day after it. So it seems like their Tirreno has 8 stages instead of 7. I wasn't really surprised to see Pogi and Asgreen do really well in the TT.
 
I didn't understand why some thought the best GT rider in the world would feel the effect of an effort done two days before. His result in the TT confirms he was fully recovered. I would stop trying to find a weakness in his game, there is none. He's very likely the best bike rider to appear in the pro peloton since I started watching this sport. And his palmares will confirm that sooner than later.
Everyone has some weakness, even Eddy had, Pogacar for example (at least until last year) didn't look dominant on big long climbs and was even dropped on Loze and Ventoux and apparently doesn't like heat. Maybe isn't enough for Roglic to beat him in the Tour but still isn't invincible.
 
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Good that you cited the article but a given advantage in air resistance doesn't translate proportionally to a speed gain (due to other forces a rider has to overcome). The article states 12% less resistance means 2.6 sec/km (which is 2.3 sec per minute of ride, so about 4% of speed difference). Therefore 7% less resistance is probably around 2-3% of speed gain (so only about 1.2-1.8 sec per minute). Obviously a car can give more air protection (as you said) but we can't say exact numbers without some complicated calculations or simulations. Anyway, I think that's all regarding this topic: we agree on the role of air resistance but providing a reliable estimation of gains is more difficult in this case.
Very true and none of the projected data means anything unless the rider is disciplined enough to accelerate in that period of decreased resistance and adjust pace meaningfully when it's gone. It also messes with concentration and pace which are hard to regain.
Calculations also don't mean much when you're in the red zone, too.
 
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A very good performance and another win!

He looks unstoppable at the moment and is exciting to watch. Not afraid of anything.

Today he closed pretty much every attempt to attack from other riders on the last climb before they could gain anything close to a gap. Demoralising for anyone trying to attack. A smart tactic, since nobody continues their attack if everyone is right on the wheel. The attacks dont continue for more than just a few seconds, before it slows down again. In the end it might not cost too much to close them. A way you can only race when you know you are strongest and basically controlling everything.

Last acceleration was incredible. No one even came close to be able to follow it. Super-impressive.
 
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