If he doesn't crash, I think he will win. I can wear yellow already in the first stage. He and Yates will nuke the final climb, only a couple of riders will be able to follow.
The problem is that Vingegaard is a climbing monster. At his best he looks undroppable on climbs (no matter if shorter or longer). Remember last year's Mende? It was only 3 kms and Pog absolutely nuked it gaining a healthy advantage over the rest and yet Vinge was able to hold on. I do think that Pog can win the Tour by small gains here and there (not by dropping Vinge for good - unless it's very cold, when Pog rules) and by sticking to the Dane's wheel on the longest climbs. Anyway, absolutely the best version of Pog is needed for it to be possible (and we don't know if it will be the case given his setback).
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