Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[CyclistAbi]

So stage 1 and 2 he will win, stage 5, he will definitely lose. Giro all over again.

Onto the stage 6.

 

[CyclistAbi]

All in all in my opinion Jonas and JV reveled their cards too soon. In my opinion this was already peak Jonas. Lets therefore see on how and when Pogi will respond in the stages to come. It's now on him to counter.

 

[Blobs]

He'll probably try all kinds of crazy stuff to turn this around, since he probably can't win y simply dropping Vingegaard. We might be in for total fireworks for the rest of the race.

 

[Pleney]

All in all in my opinion Jonas and JV reveled their cards too soon. In my opinion this was already peak Jonas. Lets therefore see on how and when Pogi will respond in the stages to come. It's now on him to counter.

Jonas didnt peak for 1 day while Tadej could peak in the spring and peak again any given day now

 

[Krzysztof_O]

All in all in my opinion Jonas and JV reveled their cards too soon. In my opinion this was already peak Jonas. Lets therefore see on how and when Pogi will respond in the stages to come. It's now on him to counter.

Maybe it is peak Jonas and maybe Pogacar is under the weather now but if JV decide to keep the pressure they may get an insurmountable lead over Pog tomorrow or on Sunday (and then their form dynamics later won't matter).

 

[Peyroteo94]

I had a dream Tadej will go bananas tomorrow. He knows he can't win the Tour so he will give us a show just like Contador in 2011 Tour.

 

[pelotonIQ]

Poga has no teammates with him when it matters the most. I don't know when, how and where but they need to make use of the co-leader tactic at some point.

 

[dobrien]

Poga has no teammates with him when it matters the most. I don't know when, how and where but they need to make use of the co-leader tactic at some point.

I think they lost that chance today though; JV is just not going to be too worried about Yates after how quickly he dropped when Kuss took over.

 

[KZD]

I think every rider would want to win more than just GTs if given the choice. The only problem is that it's very tough to win on all terrain and maybe Pogi is realizing he isn't as God-like as we first thought. At some point I think he should make a choice as to what to prioritize if he wants as many big wins as he can. He won Flanders but I think the vans would start above him on the favourites list for Flanders next year still. He's the best rider in the world but Vingegaard is the best GT rider and VdP is the best classics rider and that doesn't seem quite right

I don't think Van der Poel is a better classics rider than Pogačar. He alredy won more big classics than Van der Poel after all and the same number (and amount) of monuments. And while I get what you say its just great to see a rider that is, in my opinion, top2 in the world in both stage races and one-day races like some of the old legends of the sport.

I am also absolutely convinced that he is going to win another Grand Tour sooner or later.

 

[geisterhome]

Even with top prep Vingegaard is just the better pure GT/stage-racer.

Yet, I'd like to see if Pogi does a full TDF focus and skips classics and stuff. Just high intensity focus on getting at his best on longer climbs as well. Just to see if he can beat Vinge. He won't be able to beat Vinge if he does a full classics program again.

Idk, I think if Pogacar focused on the Tour like Vinegaard did he would stand a realistic chance. Especially if sacrifices some of his explosiveness in favour of longer efforts.

I would say let him do few early season races, PN or TA do Straße and after MS it's full focus on the Tour maybe do Basque country on the way without trying to be in peak shape there. Then (win) TdS or Dauphine already close to peak shape. After all that he could still ride the vuelta, worlds and Lombardia. Not any less prestigious achievements are possible with that approach compared to riding some one week stages races, Flanders and all Ardennes, Tour, WC, Lombardia but the chance of winning a TdF would be significantly higher imo.

 

[Blobs]

Maybe it is peak Jonas and maybe Pogacar is under the weather now but if JV decide to keep the pressure they may get an insurmountable lead over Pog tomorrow or on Sunday (and then their form dynamics later won't matter).

Just had a look at lanterne rouge's watts analysis, and it seems Pog's performance today was right up there, close to his best level.

 

[johnymax]

UAE's tactics are just awful.

I mean seriously... they raced as if they had the best rider in the Tour. There's no reason to pace behind Hindley, none. Let Jumbo or FDJ or someone else wake up to the Hindley threat they created themselves.

Even if UAE truly believed Pog was better, there should have been just enough doubt (especially considering Vingegaard's form in the Dauphiné) to not risk deploying the team in the chase & just sit behind.

So it's not just Pog who has to be better, it's his entire team (especially whomever the DS is).

They were in a tricky situation with having the leader's jersey with A. Yates. But even if they let Jumbo Visma chase, what would have been different in the end? I think the result would have been the same. Now everybody knows Vingegaard is a level above any other rider (at least for now), so every team should make JV work.

 

[Lorzenz08]

Does anyone think Pogi is spreading himself too thin? It's great to see him in Sanremo and Flanders and his win in Flanders this year was amazing and probably the best race day of the season. But is it what's best for him? I think by trying to do everything he's made himself a worse climber which is probably what's most important. I know his injury is a major factor as well but I think if he properly made the Tour his priority rather than focusing on winning monuments that don't suit him he would be able to beat Vingegaard? Maybe also he would be able to race 2 grand tours a year that way, so he wouldn't have that much less opportunity for big wins. Would love to see him race the Vuelta this year whatever happens in the rest of the Tour

Well to be honest his injury did happen while racing LBL. But that's a bit of bad faith as injuries can happen absolutely everywhere.

But still I think he shouldn't target more than 2 monuments before the tdF and as soon as he wins one it should be enough until fall season (WC, Lombardia).

 

[Rob5091]

https://cyclinguptodate.com/cycling...out-tadej-pogacars-form-before-tour-de-france
"It was the fight everyone expected," Gianetti said after the stage. "Vingegaard was very impressive and Jai Hindley played well too. He did very well. It was not a super day for us. I haven't spoken to Tadej yet. We had some doubts before the start of Tour, but we were hopeful after the ride to Bilbao. Now it appears that there is still a difference between him and Vingegaard.
At UAE Emirates they hoped that Pogacar was in good shape. "But we knew from the start, from the fall in Liege, that it would be difficult to be at 100%.

 

[DNP-Old]

Stop trying to make sense of what he's saying and be happy that Roglic is not riding the Tour would be my advice.

I direct myself to God everyday, thanking the Lord I do not have to watch boredom on wheels.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Just had a look at lanterne rouge's watts analysis, and it seems Pog's performance today was right up there, close to his best level.

I know his VAM was ok so it's more like Kuss progressed, which is even worse for Pog regarding his rivalry with Vinge.

 

[frisenfruitig]

How accurate are these watts analyses though if you don't know the actual wattage and weight of the riders. I always see these numbers thrown around like "oh he did 6,7 W/kg for x minutes" but it's just a guesstimate as far as I can tell.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

How accurate are these watts analyses though if you don't know the actual wattage and weight of the riders. I always see these numbers thrown around like "oh he did 6,7 W/kg for x minutes" but it's just a guesstimate as far as I can tell.

I'm sticking to VAM (simple vertical speed), which is easy to calculate and doesn't require any parametrization, which can cause errors. Obviously it's gradient dependent but still one can assess how good it is when comparing to other climbs of similar characteristics.

 

[ppanther92]

He'll probably try all kinds of crazy stuff to turn this around, since he probably can't win y simply dropping Vingegaard. We might be in for total fireworks for the rest of the race.

We thought that last year as well and he indeed did try but JV and Vingegaard were absolutely unphased.

 

[frisenfruitig]

I'm sticking to VAM (simple vertical speed), which is easy to calculate and doesn't require any parametrization, which can cause errors. Obviously it's gradient dependent but still one can assess how good it is when comparing to other climbs of similar characteristics.

Still kind of hard to make any comparisons if it doesn't account for wind. VAM might be much lower if you have a head wind but that doesn't mean your actual W/kg was lower, if I understand correctly? Better than nothing of course since we never get access to the actual numbers. Sometimes I think it's silly when guys like LR make these claims like "Remco did x W/kg" when he might be a couple of kgs lighter or heavier, which makes a big difference in these calculations.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Still kind of hard to make any comparisons if it doesn't account for wind. VAM might be much lower if you have a head wind but that doesn't mean your actual W/kg was lower, if I understand correctly? Better than nothing of course since we never get access to the actual numbers. Sometimes I think it's silly when guys like LR make these claims like "Remco did x W/kg" when he might be a couple of kgs lighter or heavier, which makes a big difference in these calculations.

Absolutely, those climbing speeds can vary between races and circumstances (weather conditions, pacing, stage hardness etc) and sometimes we have outliers like in Catalunya. But still on such a short, steep forest sections those factors (at least pacing and wind) should be less important. Anyway, relative differences are maybe more telling: and they say that Vinge comfortably beat Pogacar, who comfortably beat the rest (except for Kuss). I don't think it was peak Pogacar but his performance was still decent.

BTW They actually base their watts formulas mainly on speed, VAM and some standard mass (i.e. 65 kg). But in w/kg calculations it's not like 2-3 kg makes big difference - it would be the case only if one set power as mass independent and manipulate mass only while in those formulas they calculate watts based on some standard mass - even if pure watts are wrong w/kg error should be smaller (mass is used in both numerator and denominator so it shortens - but not completely as a 5-7 kg lighter cyclists needs like 0.03-0.05 more w/kg to achieve the same climbing speed due to bike mass so his actual w/kg number would look slightly more impressive for the same VAM).

 

[Trofonios]

Just had a look at lanterne rouge's watts analysis, and it seems Pog's performance today was right up there, close to his best level.

That is the thing. People say Pog dropped because he isn't in super shape and/or his wrist is hurting him and/or that he might have had a stomach bug during stage 3 and 4 (Yeah, Chris Horner actually speculated about this). Disregard Vingegaards exceptional performance for a moment and just focus on Pog relative other contenders: he dropped every other GC-contender with 23s or more in less than 3k. Have we seen Pog do much better than this many times before? Don't think so. The thing that might indicate that his form isn't 100 % is that he didn't drop Kuss. But, we know that Kuss can be incredibly strong on steep gradients when he is in top shape.

The presumption is that Pog would have followed Vingegaard if he was in top shape and his wrist didn't hurt.
I'm not sure about that. I think Vingegaard might just be stronger than Pog, especially on a bit longer steeper sections where weight becomes a factor.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Maybe it is peak Jonas and maybe Pogacar is under the weather now but if JV decide to keep the pressure they may get an insurmountable lead over Pog tomorrow or on Sunday (and then their form dynamics later won't matter).

They likely need to keep the pressure anyway, due to Jai being ahead. This in the end could suit Pogi. All in all i feel that Pogi will bounce back. The race has only started. We'll see.

 

[Cassirer]

That is the thing. People say Pog dropped because he isn't in super shape and/or his wrist is hurting him and/or that he might have had a stomach bug during stage 3 and 4 (Yeah, Chris Horner actually speculated about this). Disregard Vingegaards exceptional performance for a moment and just focus on Pog relative other contenders: he dropped every other GC-contender with 23s or more in less than 3k. Have we seen Pog do much better than this many times before? Don't think so. The thing that might indicate that his form isn't 100 % is that he didn't drop Kuss. But, we know that Kuss can be incredibly strong on steep gradients when he is in top shape.

The presumption is that Pog would have followed Vingegaard if he was in top shape and his wrist didn't hurt.
I'm not sure about that. I think Vingegaard might just be stronger than Pog, especially on a bit longer steeper sections where weight becomes a factor.

Agreed! That's also why I'm not quite comfortable with the notion that Pogs sprinting abilities come at the expense of his climbing. He climbs better (much better) than the whole world of cycling, except one guy. Imo Pog IS a grand tour beast who amazingly is able to beat the classic specialists and not the other way round. Of course all our opinions tend to hinge on few data points, but look at Thomas being almost best in the giro and pog and vinge almost competing in a different sport than him last year. That vinge can one-up pog is crazy stuff, but doesn't put pogs climbing/GT-ability among the mortals.

 

[CyclistAbi]

I direct myself to God everyday, thanking the Lord I do not have to watch boredom on wheels.

I tried that at this years Giro and he listened.