Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[Red Rick]

Either he's scrapping heaps to go to the WC or he's simply scrapping heaps to decompress and rebuild towards fall classics.

 

[Sybrand]

Really hope he goes for it in Glasgow. It would be amazing to see him ride in rainbow colors, even though he wouldn't be the big favourite.

The route isn't the most favourable for him, but it could be worse. So if he has the energy, he shouldn't let it slip.

 

[KZD]

I hope that Pogačar goes to the World Championships and then has a break until the Canadian classics. Having said that after seeing Ayuso's crash in Ordizia just now maybe he just rests and goes to the Vuelta instead.

Still regarding the Tour, the Lanterne Rouge podcast guys noticed something interesting yesterday, Pogačar's bad day in the Tour always happens two days after the rest day in a high mountain stage.

2020 stage 17 - Col de la Loze, lost 15 seconds to Roglič and 30 to Lopez.

2021 stage 11 - Double Mont Ventoux ascent, lost roughly 40 seconds to Vingegård having being dropped close to the summit then came back on the descent

2022 stage 11 - Galibier + Granon, lost 2:51 minutes to Vingegård after blowing up on Granon and spending too much energy on Galibier but I think he would have still lost around a minute.

2023 stage 17 - Col de la Loze, loses almost 6 minutes to Vingegård after blowing up in the beginning of the hard part of the climb and after doing a good but not perfect hilly TT the day before.

I don't think that this is a coincidence, either UAE needs to improve the way they spend their rest days or this is some weird weakness of his but it seems to be a weak spot that he currently has. The good news is that at least next year two of the most important stages will be on the final weekend but its likely that at least after one of the rest days there will be a mountain stage.

 

[Peter von]

So if he has the energy, he shouldn't let it slip.

I guess this is why he might hesitate. Pogi doesn't usually shy away just because a parcours doesn't favour him on paper.

 

[Red Rick]

I hope that Pogačar goes to the World Championships and then has a break until the Canadian classics. Having said that after seeing Ayuso's crash in Ordizia just now maybe he just rests and goes to the Vuelta instead.

Still regarding the Tour, the Lanterne Rouge podcast guys noticed something interesting yesterday, Pogačar's bad day in the Tour always happens two days after the rest day in a high mountain stage.

2020 stage 17 - Col de la Loze, lost 15 seconds to Roglič and 30 to Lopez.

2021 stage 11 - Double Mont Ventoux ascent, lost roughly 40 seconds to Vingegård having being dropped close to the summit then came back on the descent

2022 stage 11 - Galibier + Granon, lost 2:51 minutes to Vingegård after blowing up on Granon and spending too much energy on Galibier but I think he would have still lost around a minute.

2023 stage 17 - Col de la Loze, loses almost 6 minutes to Vingegård after blowing up in the beginning of the hard part of the climb and after doing a good but not perfect hilly TT the day before.

I don't think that this is a coincidence, either UAE needs to improve the way they spend their rest days or this is some weird weakness of his but it seems to be a weak spot that he currently has. The good news is that at least next year two of the most important stages will be on the final weekend but its likely that at least after one of the rest days there will be a mountain stage.

1. He also got dropped on stage 18 in 2020.
2. He won Peyragudes 2 days after the rest day
3. This year there was a worsening trend before the rest day
4. In 2021 he got attacked the day after the 2nd rest day, and he won Col de Portet 2 days after the 2nd rest day
5. In 2019 he was 2nd of the GC contenders in the Vuelta ITT, which was the day after the rest day.
6. In Paris-Nice this year he won the 2 stages following the stage 6 cancellation

It's just grasping at straws.

What all these stages do have in common is 50 minute + climbs and very high cumulative climbing. Pogacar just does much better in stages with 3-4000m of total altitude gain than 4500+, especially when the climbing is primarily long climbs.

 

[Rob5091]

Either he's scrapping heaps to go to the WC or he's simply scrapping heaps to decompress and rebuild towards fall classics.

or he's scrapping heaps 'cause he's still f*cked!

 

[Krzysztof_O]

or he's scrapping heaps 'cause he's still f*cked!

This. Teddy isn't a master of recovery from a 3-week race it seems. Doing consecutive GTs is not his cup of tea. Plus peaking from February to April didn't help for sure.

 

[Red Rick]

Pog probably goes really hard during the afterparty

Poels and van Baarle on a pod were really proud of themselves being hungover less than 3 days

 

[KZD]

1. He also got dropped on stage 18 in 2020.
2. He won Peyragudes 2 days after the rest day
3. This year there was a worsening trend before the rest day
4. In 2021 he got attacked the day after the 2nd rest day, and he won Col de Portet 2 days after the 2nd rest day
5. In 2019 he was 2nd of the GC contenders in the Vuelta ITT, which was the day after the rest day.
6. In Paris-Nice this year he won the 2 stages following the stage 6 cancellation

It's just grasping at straws.

What all these stages do have in common is 50 minute + climbs and very high cumulative climbing. Pogacar just does much better in stages with 3-4000m of total altitude gain than 4500+, especially when the climbing is primarily long climbs.

Regarding your examples, he won stage 17 to Peyragudes last year but in a sprint against Vingegård and he was so tired at the end that he collapsed to the ground (kind of helps to explain why he was dropped the day after together with the longer climbs).

This year, he was on a worsening trend before the rest day but still got clearly worse afterwards

In the Vuelta 2019 TT he lost 1:29min to Roglič in a 36k TT which was a lot of time even for a 20 year old Pogačar. Sure he was the second best of GC riders but those were riders like Valverde and Quintana not really known for their performances against clock.

Paris-Nice is an 8 day race so its a bit different because there is less to recover from and although he won stage 7 and 8, he didn't look great on stage 7 beating Gaudu and Vingegård in the sprint after being unable to keep a gap on them.

He also looked quite bad on stage 16 last year in Mur du Peguère.

I agree that Pogačar's main weakness against Vingegård is the fact that he is just not as strong in proper high mountain stages (with a lot of elevation gain) but he doesn't seem to come out of the rest days as strong as a Vingegård or a Roglič for instance so it doesn't help that stages 11 and 17 have the been the queen stages in the last Tours.

 

[CyclistAbi]

It's interesting on how at some point you read on how Pogi is better at recovery then Rogla. On a GT race. And then suddenly Pogi is really bad at recovery and Rogla wins a MTT and a GT in the last stage. Jonas then becomes the king of recovery and after Vuelta i guess we can say a bit more about that. There seems to be a bit more to it then such facts.

 

[Tonton]

Losing 5 seconds per kilometer in the ITT to that guy in yellow...what's his name again? Froome, right? That was a bad performance: he can't TT, and then he dropped almost 4 minutes to Majka the next day...

He's no good, he can't win a GT, maybe he should specialize in one-week races and a yearly pilgrimage to Poitou-Charentes like Voeckler used to do.

And he always gets injured: this time before the Tour, playing goalkeeper and wearing a PSG jersey I bet. What a mess of a team. By the way, he's not even the best GT rider in his country. He always has one or two days off in a GT, that loss is the end for him.

Ooops! I thought that it was the Pinot thread back in '15 or '16...

 

[Cookster15]

Regarding your examples, he won stage 17 to Peyragudes last year but in a sprint against Vingegård and he was so tired at the end that he collapsed to the ground (kind of helps to explain why he was dropped the day after together with the longer climbs).

This year, he was on a worsening trend before the rest day but still got clearly worse afterwards

In the Vuelta 2019 TT he lost 1:29min to Roglič in a 36k TT which was a lot of time even for a 20 year old Pogačar. Sure he was the second best of GC riders but those were riders like Valverde and Quintana not really known for their performances against clock.

Paris-Nice is an 8 day race so its a bit different because there is less to recover from and although he won stage 7 and 8, he didn't look great on stage 7 beating Gaudu and Vingegård in the sprint after being unable to keep a gap on them.

He also looked quite bad on stage 16 last year in Mur du Peguère.

I agree that Pogačar's main weakness against Vingegaard is the fact that he is just not as strong in proper high mountain stages (with a lot of elevation gain) but he doesn't seem to come out of the rest days as strong as a Vingegård or a Roglič for instance so it doesn't help that stages 11 and 17 have the been the queen stages in the last Tours.

This all makes sense. Except there is a train of thought that last year Pog expended huge energy trying to claw back time after he blew on Granon which cost him on Hautacam and then this year he had the LBL crash which affected his recovery.

Jonas Vingegaard simply did not have to respond to similar setbacks. And whilst Pog might not be quite as good as Vingegaard on long, hard climbs, I also have trouble accepting it is that big an issue considering he already won two TdFs before last year?

Interested to see if he can respond to this setback and also next year he (and Vingo) will have Remco to worry about.

Looking at Tour winners over the years, often there can be new talent that we think might dominate. But then competition and/or luck usually intervenes.

 

[meat puppet]

Ok, I was optimistic with my prediction that come March, the framing in this thread returns to Pog is da best ever and Vingo just a clueless double fluke.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Pog is considering WC participation. Not sure yet (he says a couple of days ago he would say "No") and he wants to see how he feels next week. He says he'd like to go there but admits it's the worst moment of the season for him to do WC

https://velo.outsideonline.com/road/road-racing/tour-de-france/what-next-pogacar

 

[TrekCyclist]

Personally, I don't think Pog is "bad" at recovery. From 2020 - 2023 he really only had two off days, 2023 probably influenced by not having an optimal prep.
With a better prep, next year he should be able to be more consistent in the 3rd week. If he can keep the level of this year's 1st week during 3 weeks, he can bring Vingo in trouble. Maybe a long flat ITT could be in his favor as well.

 

[Rob5091]

Joxean Fernández Matxín says Tadej Pogačar had stomach problems in Courchevel, (stage 17) Too many gels or disinformation?

https://cyclinguptodate.com/cycling...ot-a-mistake-and-the-wrist-did-not-bother-him

 

[Lorzenz08]

Personally, I don't think Pog is "bad" at recovery. From 2020 - 2023 he really only had two off days, 2023 probably influenced by not having an optimal prep.
With a better prep, next year he should be able to be more consistent in the 3rd week. If he can keep the level of this year's 1st week during 3 weeks, he can bring Vingo in trouble. Maybe a long flat ITT could be in his favor as well.

Pure speculation here but I think with optimal prep, Pogi would have :

1 - Stayed in Vinge wheel during stage 5, or close enough to be able to come back after the summit.
2 - Similar thing would have happened from stage 6 to stage 16. So coming to the TT, he would probably be about 40 secs in front of Vinge.
3 - In the TT I think he would have lost around 50secs-1min instead of 1:38. So he would probably be around 10-20 secs behind Vinge.
4 - Lost about 30-50 secs in Loze.

At the end, he would most likely have lost by about 40secs-1:10min to Vinge.

 

[Red Rick]

Pure speculation here but I think with optimal prep, Pogi would have :

1 - Stayed in Vinge wheel during stage 5, or close enough to be able to come back after the summit.
2 - Similar thing would have happened from stage 6 to stage 16. So coming to the TT, he would probably be about 40 secs in front of Vinge.
3 - In the TT I think he would have lost around 50secs-1min instead of 1:38. So he would probably be around 10-20 secs behind Vinge.
4 - Lost about 30-50 secs in Loze.

At the end, he would most likely have lost by about 40secs-1:10min to Vinge.

If he gets dropped on Marie Blanque he ain't coming back on the descent. Also if Pogacar doesn't crack on Marie Blanque then Jumbo don't commit harakiri on the way to Cauterets.

But he probably would drop Sepp Kuss uphill.

 

[Andy schleck]

Pure speculation here but I think with optimal prep, Pogi would have :

1 - Stayed in Vinge wheel during stage 5, or close enough to be able to come back after the summit.
2 - Similar thing would have happened from stage 6 to stage 16. So coming to the TT, he would probably be about 40 secs in front of Vinge.
3 - In the TT I think he would have lost around 50secs-1min instead of 1:38. So he would probably be around 10-20 secs behind Vinge.
4 - Lost about 30-50 secs in Loze.

At the end, he would most likely have lost by about 40secs-1:10min to Vinge.

If if if if if. If the tour had no bonus seconds, pogacar wouldn't gain more than 30 seconds to vingegaard.

 

[Nick2413]

Vingegaard has no weaknesses and has never had an actual bad day. It’s looking like the only way to beat him is unconventional tactics, things like unexpected raids and complete chaos. Otherwise it’s basically just waiting for that one bad day that has never yet come.

 

[RobertCrawley]

Vingegaard has no weaknesses and has never had an actual bad day. It’s looking like the only way to beat him is unconventional tactics, things like unexpected raids and complete chaos. Otherwise it’s basically just waiting for that one bad day that has never yet come.

If Vingegaard has had a bad day, he also had the good sense and acting chops to hide it. I think the bigger issues is that Jonas has dropped Tadej three times on a mountain, and Tadej has never dropped Jonas. If Jonas hadn't been working for Rog in 2021 and lost 5 minutes before the Rog crash, he might have three Tour wins. Tadej and his crew will need to figure out a way to reverse that stat. I'm sure they are working on it.

 

[Nick2413]

If Vingegaard has had a bad day, he also had the good sense and acting chops to hide it. I think the bigger issues is that Jonas has dropped Tadej three times on a mountain, and Tadej has never dropped Jonas. If Jonas hadn't been working for Rog in 2021 and lost 5 minutes before the Rog crash, he might have three Tour wins. Tadej and his crew will need to figure out a way to reverse that stat. I'm sure they are working on it.

If Jonas didn’t have a strong team and they rode at Gaudu/Hindley speed the whole time I’m sure Pogacar would have a chance, but I see no ways to improve by 5-7 minutes per Tour from a pure fitness/form perspective.

 

[Andy schleck]

If Vingegaard has had a bad day, he also had the good sense and acting chops to hide it. I think the bigger issues is that Jonas has dropped Tadej three times on a mountain, and Tadej has never dropped Jonas. If Jonas hadn't been working for Rog in 2021 and lost 5 minutes before the Rog crash, he might have three Tour wins. Tadej and his crew will need to figure out a way to reverse that stat. I'm sure they are working on it.

Vingegaard also crashed in the tour 2021, in the stage that pogacar won by 3 minutes, but i think pogacar was more strong than Vingegaard on that tour.

 

[SHAD0W93]

If Vingegaard has had a bad day, he also had the good sense and acting chops to hide it. I think the bigger issues is that Jonas has dropped Tadej three times on a mountain, and Tadej has never dropped Jonas. If Jonas hadn't been working for Rog in 2021 and lost 5 minutes before the Rog crash, he might have three Tour wins. Tadej and his crew will need to figure out a way to reverse that stat. I'm sure they are working on it.

Vinge only gained 12 seconds or whatever it was in the TT against Pog through the whole race and would have lost by 1-2 mins instead of over 5. Vinge wasn’t the Vinge we saw in 2022 yet. He was in the Landa role except when he was freed the next year, he was actually free.

Further, Pog dropped Vinge twice this past race.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

If Vingegaard has had a bad day, he also had the good sense and acting chops to hide it. I think the bigger issues is that Jonas has dropped Tadej three times on a mountain, and Tadej has never dropped Jonas. If Jonas hadn't been working for Rog in 2021 and lost 5 minutes before the Rog crash, he might have three Tour wins. Tadej and his crew will need to figure out a way to reverse that stat. I'm sure they are working on it.

Pogacar dropped Vingegaard twice during this Tour. What are you talking about? Still, I agree that Vinge didn't have any bad day. He was very strong all the time (even if his form fluctuated a bit) and there's really no way to put substantial time into him. Even if Pog had been strong all the time he would've still lost time during the TT.

As for 2021 Vinge didn't lose 5 minutes before Rog crash, lol. He (and everybody else) was annihilated by Pog in the Alps (losing 4 minutes in 2 stages). He had a crash that made it more difficult for him surely but it's also true that Pog had a crash during Loze stage (and in Liege), which could have affected his racing as well. That's unfortunately part of cycling.