Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[Krzysztof_O]

I think he only loses his form in the first races of September, after the post-Tour rest I suppose he doesn't do intense training to prepare for the end of the year and simply recovers a decent base for Lombardia (but not extraterrestrial).

He also usually has a long period without races between circa 20 April and 15 June (almost 2 months). Enough time to rest and build another peak. This time there's no such a long break.

 

[Oldermanish]

What interests me is how did they plan form peaks and lows? Surely Pog can be in good form most of the year but in previous years he always had spring peak and then longer break after Ardennes classics and before the Tour. How is it this year? No time to recover and slow down a little: time between Giro and Tour is too short and the recent altitude camp break was more about further form buildup. He must be on fire since Strade to the Tour! Will he pay for it in July?

Good point and he probably will need a break somehow.
Between the Giro and Tour they can assess his altitude benefits and decide how to "recover", if that's possible.

The first week of Le Tour doesn't provide anyone much of a slack time for relaxation. Everyone is so hyped up and dangerous it's difficult not to use energy staying out of trouble. Strategically Pogi needs his team to protect him on stages that can be used for modest recovery. That would suggest they don't want the GC lead until the latest stages that suit him and that's a tough balance to maintain. If he's won the Giro and wants the double he'll need to take calculated risks for that reward.
All of his adversaries will know that and exploit it which is what the Double so difficult.

 

[Cookster15]

Also on the Tour, it will be hot then. We know Pogacar loves the cold. But how will he cope with the likely heat in July? I presume UAE will be thinking about that.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Also on the Tour, it will be hot then. We know Pogacar loves the cold. But how will he cope with the likely heat in July? I presume UAE will be thinking about that.

Most likely the same as last year with the cold vest after each stage, multiple water handlers throughout the stage to replenish, and pouring water on him throughout. It looked to go well last year besides when Pog botched the handoff and Adam had to use his water for him. Plus whatever it is Mou said they were working on.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Visibly fat Teddy before the Giro:
After consultations with Mauro and having read CN forum experts' opinions of me peaking too soon I decided to do an eating camp post LBL. My calories input was bigger than during decisive Tour stages and my only exercise was switching TV channels. I just hope to survive the opening weekend and slowly build towards a better form as the race progresses. I'm planning my peak for the last week of the Tour.

 

[Barkintheeye]

I think his base form is just the highest in the entire history of the sport at this point, so even operating at 80-90%, he usually demolishes these other riders unless we talk peak Van der Poel, Vingegaard, WVA etc. in races that suits them.

But that’s just not true. Pog didn’t win MSR and couldn’t drop Van der Poel. We will not know how he would have done in Paris-Roubaix but I deem it very unlikely that he could’ve beaten Van der Poel. In addition - very unfortunately - we haven’t seen him up against a peak Remco unless we count last year’s WC and there we all know what happened. Surely Pog is the absolute strongest P4P rider today and he will almost every time beat anyone on hilly classics. Yet he definitely not is unbeatable.

 

[Valv.Piti]

But that’s just not true. Pog didn’t win MSR and couldn’t drop Van der Poel. We will not know how he would have done in Paris-Roubaix but I deem it very unlikely that he could’ve beaten Van der Poel. In addition - very unfortunately - we haven’t seen him up against a peak Remco unless we count last year’s WC and there we all know what happened. Surely Pog is the absolute strongest P4P rider today and he will almost every time beat anyone on hilly classics. Yet he definitely not is unbeatable.

Try to read what I wrote again

 

[Tim Cahill]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1782849255922712629

What is that really mediocre team, I know he probably doesn't need much but if the wrong break goes in the high mountains they haven't got much to bring it back, Majka is decent but not getting any younger, Bjerg is excellent on low gradients but wont be of much use on the Mortirolo.

Should've brought Del Toro, because Almeida and Ayuso won't go/work and Yates is rightly saved for The Tour

 

[Peyroteo94]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1782849255922712629

What is that really mediocre team, I know he probably doesn't need much but if the wrong break goes in the high mountains they haven't got much to bring it back, Majka is decent but not getting any younger, Bjerg is excellent on low gradients but wont be of much use on the Mortirolo.

Should've brought Del Toro, because Almeida and Ayuso won't go/work and Yates is rightly saved for The Tour

Novak and Majka are enough to this awful startlist. First hard mountain stage is stage 15 so plenty of time for Pogacar build a large advantage (probably around 6 minutes) and doesn't need any type of help (everyone will start to ride for second and third place). In fact, I like the idea of strong roullers to keep Pogi safe in first and second weeks.

 

[Gratemans]

Meh. "Wrong breaks" hardly ever happen anymore. They'll be fine with this squad. And I agree with peyroteo. It's important for them to keep him safe on the flatter stages.

 

[Nick2413]

Maybe the drama of this Giro can be Pog losing a couple min from his enormous lead in the final week, giving way to endless debates about whether the double is a lock.

 

[Ricco']

Good team to control the flats after they go through the Stelvio.

 

[ppanther92]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1782849255922712629

What is that really mediocre team, I know he probably doesn't need much but if the wrong break goes in the high mountains they haven't got much to bring it back, Majka is decent but not getting any younger, Bjerg is excellent on low gradients but wont be of much use on the Mortirolo.

Should've brought Del Toro, because Almeida and Ayuso won't go/work and Yates is rightly saved for The Tour

Obviously should not have brought Molano. But other than that - decent team. Rather like that than with Hirschi, Ulissi and so on.

 

[Oldermanish]

Novak and Majka are enough to this awful startlist. First hard mountain stage is stage 15 so plenty of time for Pogacar build a large advantage (probably around 6 minutes) and doesn't need any type of help (everyone will start to ride for second and third place). In fact, I like the idea of strong roullers to keep Pogi safe in first and second weeks.

Hopefully for a relatively non-taxing win opportunity I agree. It's what he'd need to win late and use the race with the Tour in mind.
It'll take this race to be UAE manageable to make the Tour win a possibility. He's got two weeks to rest up after his successful early season.

 

[Escarabajo]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1782849255922712629

What is that really mediocre team, I know he probably doesn't need much but if the wrong break goes in the high mountains they haven't got much to bring it back, Majka is decent but not getting any younger, Bjerg is excellent on low gradients but wont be of much use on the Mortirolo.

Should've brought Del Toro, because Almeida and Ayuso won't go/work and Yates is rightly saved for The Tour

Majka better be good. They are underestimating the other riders. We'll see. But this team looks really weak in the mountains.

 

[scribers]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1782849255922712629

What is that really mediocre team, I know he probably doesn't need much but if the wrong break goes in the high mountains they haven't got much to bring it back, Majka is decent but not getting any younger, Bjerg is excellent on low gradients but wont be of much use on the Mortirolo.

Should've brought Del Toro, because Almeida and Ayuso won't go/work and Yates is rightly saved for The Tour

It’s simple tho. Don’t let anyone dangerous in the break. And monitor how far out they are. UAE won’t be the only team not allowing a winner up the road

 

[SHAD0W93]

Most likely the same as last year with the cold vest after each stage, multiple water handlers throughout the stage to replenish, and pouring water on him throughout. It looked to go well last year besides when Pog botched the handoff and Adam had to use his water for him. Plus whatever it is Mou said they were working on.

And an added plus to help prevent any heat issues; if Vingegaard isn’t there or isn’t 100% Jumbo and UAE aren’t going to be drilling it every single stage to blow the other up.

 

[BigCoward]

But if Pog never wins GW then it's probably a knock on GW, not on his palmares.

That's how I see my failure to ever bed a supermodel.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Majka better be good. They are underestimating the other riders. We'll see. But this team looks really weak in the mountains.

Could turn into a 2015 Contador situation.
I also expect Bora and maybe Bahrain + AG2R to pull an Astana during the 2nd half of the race, try to make the Giro as hard as possible for Pogacar so that their team leaders at the Tour have a better chance.

 

[Barkintheeye]

Try to read what I wrote again

Realize I was a bit quick there but I just got stuck on the point of Pog @Base shape will beat all others @peak shape.

I would agree that at LBL, Lombardia and GTs Pog has very little competition even without being at peak form. Most likely also at SB, Amstel and some other less hillier classics. Then at RVV, MSR and PR he needs to be at his absolute best to win but he can (probably) do it.

 

[YavorD]

Could turn into a 2015 Contador situation.
I also expect Bora and maybe Bahrain + AG2R to pull an Astana during the 2nd half of the race, try to make the Giro as hard as possible for Pogacar so that their team leaders at the Tour have a better chance.

I find it hard to see such a situation. Bora, at least on paper doesn't look stronger than UAE and that's even before seeing DFM, who may as well be 10 minutes back by the end of week 2.
AG2R are okay, but I'd still put YAE at least on par with them.
Bahrain looks really strong, but I don't think they would play the long game, I mean they don't have someone whose main opponent will be Pogacar.

Ineos, however, may have a very good team and if Bernal performs well in Romandie, they may back him up and play the long game....but as we all know they will be mostly about control.
Visma could potentially do something.

As for Astana 2015, they had (by far?) the strongest team in the race and 2 (1..) legit contenders for the win. Unless someone steps up massively, that seems unlikely. Not to mention the route actually being horrible for such an action.

 

[YavorD]

Maybe the drama of this Giro can be Pog losing a couple min from his enormous lead in the final week, giving way to endless debates about whether the double is a lock.

I see it the other way around. If he loses a few minutes on this route and this field, that could suggest he's taking it easy and is timing his peaks/efforts. If he is destroying everyone in the 3rd week, however, I would be even more doubtful for the double than I already am.

 

[Tim Cahill]

Could turn into a 2015 Contador situation.
I also expect Bora and maybe Bahrain + AG2R to pull an Astana during the 2nd half of the race, try to make the Giro as hard as possible for Pogacar so that their team leaders at the Tour have a better chance.

That's what I had in mind, Novak is a great diesel and can ride on rolling terrain for ages, but I can only really remember one standout high-mountain showing from him (Fedaia when he was 2nd to Covi). He was decent in Catalunya but this is a different level, and there are probably 10-15 climbers in the race better than their best doms, Majka has been nowhere this season.

They are leaving things to chance a bit with this lineup, whilst the others may start riding for podium early, if an opportunity arises to bury him, a mechanical at the wrong time, a mistake on a descent and getting caught in the valley, illness, a missed-feed or a hunger flat, if he is isolated at the point they will co-operate.

He has been dropped and had bad moments before and not having a Porte/Kuss with him is an unnecessary risk. Even if he wins by miles he won't be able to chill out in the highest of mountains and save energy for the Tour because he will have nobody with him.

 

[Peyroteo94]

That's what I had in mind, Novak is a great diesel and can ride on rolling terrain for ages, but I can only really remember one standout high-mountain showing from him (Fedaia when he was 2nd to Covi). He was decent in Catalunya but this is a different level, and there are probably 10-15 climbers in the race better than their best doms, Majka has been nowhere this season.

They are leaving things to chance a bit with this lineup, whilst the others may start riding for podium early, if an opportunity arises to bury him, a mechanical at the wrong time, a mistake on a descent and getting caught in the valley, illness, a missed-feed or a hunger flat, if he is isolated at the point they will co-operate.

He has been dropped and had bad moments before and not having a Porte/Kuss with him is an unnecessary risk. Even if he wins by miles he won't be able to chill out in the highest of mountains and save energy for the Tour because he will have nobody with him.

UAE is safe until stage 15 so Pogi only needs to build a large advantage until stage 15. With 2 time trials, the first weekend and Prati di Tivo, I can see Pogi winning more than 6 minutes.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

That's what I had in mind, Novak is a great diesel and can ride on rolling terrain for ages, but I can only really remember one standout high-mountain showing from him (Fedaia when he was 2nd to Covi). He was decent in Catalunya but this is a different level, and there are probably 10-15 climbers in the race better than their best doms, Majka has been nowhere this season.

They are leaving things to chance a bit with this lineup, whilst the others may start riding for podium early, if an opportunity arises to bury him, a mechanical at the wrong time, a mistake on a descent and getting caught in the valley, illness, a missed-feed or a hunger flat, if he is isolated at the point they will co-operate.

He has been dropped and had bad moments before and not having a Porte/Kuss with him is an unnecessary risk. Even if he wins by miles he won't be able to chill out in the highest of mountains and save energy for the Tour because he will have nobody with him.

UAE has a lot of strong guys so probably sending one more to the Giro wouldn't hurt them (hopefully Majka will be consistently strong). There could be various circumstances when having one more strong climbing teammate is important to save energy (not necessarily Pogacar's mechanical or him being dropped - it's hard to crack him without Visma LAB/Vingo power) i.e. tactical situation of chasing some potentially dangerous guys. I agree that having a stronger team would make his life more comfortable and saving some energy for the Tour more likely.