I think a breakaway is likely to take the yellow jersey on Friday if one of the contenders takes it in the ITT.At the moment it looks like the Tour could be another battle between the two Slovenians, although you can't rule out Ineos, because of their collective strength. Roglic is out for revenge and wants to repeat his tactics from the Vuelta.
The two time trials might be crucial, because the differences in the mountains might be limited. It wouldn't be bad for Pogacar if Roglic took yellow on Wednesday in the time trial. That could mean Jumbo has to control the race for the next ten days or so.
UAE look strong and motivated, but we don't know yet if they can control the Tour as a team. Several of his teammates were involved in the crash yesterday. Pogacar's best chances to attack are probably in the third week, with the tough finishes on the Col du Portet and Luzardiden. The ultimate decision might be in the final time trial.