Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[scribers]

MSR doesn't modify his program at all. The problem is PR.

Msr is an early season race and not prepping for it leaves open a stronger schedule from middle spring on

 

[scribers]

But I don't expect Pogacar to dominate cycling for 13-15 seasons. I can't remember a rider being the best for 15 years.

Valverde

 

[Peyroteo94]

Valverde

I said being the best for 15 years, not a rider at his best.

 

[scribers]

So?

 

[Peyroteo94]

It is hard to see him in 2033 winning GTs

 

[Peyroteo94]

Roglic can win GTs at 34 but Pog couldnt?

Roglic was at his very best when he was 27. Pogacar was 21 years old when he made third in the Vuelta.

 

[xo 1]

Good question. IMO same boring program for 2025 aiming for a less risky (trouble free) season with the Tour still being the primary target.

Would be good to see Vingo attempt the Giro in 2026. But I doubt that as his sponsors will want him to ride (and win) the Tour. In this year’s Tour, despite his badly compromised prep, Visma seemed confident right up until the moment Pog dropped Vingegaard on PdB - stage 15. So they will be thinking with a trouble free season let’s try to beat Pog at the Tour again. They won’t want to risk that by attempting the Giro next year.

I suspect that's right. Given VLB's troubled season and its demonstrated ability to get its top riders ready through training and not racing, I am envisioning that VLB may have Vingo ride even fewer race days before the Tour.

 

[Cookster15]

Roglic was at his very best when he was 27. Pogacar was 21 years old when he made third in the Vuelta.

Roglic came to the sport late having switched from ski jumping. The big exception to longevity was Valverde.

 

[solo80k]

Roglic came to the sport late having switched from ski jumping. The big exception to longevity was Valverde.

Should we expect Pogi switching to ski jumping before 30 just to show Roglic who's the real boss?

 

[stekelegel]

Msr is an early season race and not prepping for it leaves open a stronger schedule from middle spring on

Van Aert even let MSR out this year to be stronger in Flanders (but he never got there...).
But true, not including MSR, Strade, and Paris Nice or Tirreno, makes room later in the season for another GT (Vuelta).
(but I am sure he will want to ride and win paris nice once).

But riding the classics (with or without Roubaix) I think puts less strain on the body and mind then prepping and riding Giro before the Tour. Maybe later in his career, when he has won 5,6 tours he might skip it and for instance in 2028 decide to schedule for the olympics. That again could make room for Giro.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Van Aert even let MSR out this year to be stronger in Flanders (but he never got there...).
But true, not including MSR, Strade, and Paris Nice or Tirreno, makes room later in the season for another GT (Vuelta).
(but I am sure he will want to ride and win paris nice once).

But riding the classics (with or without Roubaix) I think puts less strain on the body and mind then prepping and riding Giro before the Tour. Maybe later in his career, when he has won 5,6 tours he might skip it and for instance in 2028 decide to schedule for the olympics. That again could make room for Giro.

Pogacar won 2023 Paris Nice

 

[Peyroteo94]

Roglic came to the sport late having switched from ski jumping. The big exception to longevity was Valverde.

And I think Roglic is already fading. He is not the same rider in the high mountains.

 

[2WpK]

Impossible to match Merckx's win totals. Will never be done by anyone, ever. Merckx won over 500 races (Almost 30% of all his starts were victories). The level of professional competition was so much less in his day than it is today. Also, the number of crashes and injuries are so much more frequent now. It is just plain harder to win a race.

If anyone is to surpass Merckx as the GOAT, pundits and cycling historians have to take those factors into account.

 

[Cookster15]

Modern medicine and training methods in a sport where riders were always pretty good into their mid 30s.

Seriously it's not even a question Pogacar can be a high level into his mid to late 30s.

I always think of Andy Schleck in these discussions.

Andy was 22 when he came runner up at the 2007 Giro. So 3 months older than when Pogacar won the 2020 Tour.

Schleck retired in 2014 aged 29.

Roglic is 34 and came to the sport in 2012 - aged 23.

Merckx was 20 when he turned pro and retired aged 32. 13 years as a pro.

Generally riders were good into their mid 30s based upon a bell curve when they turned professional. They stayed good until an older age but turned professional later. The outlier is Valverde as I mentioned. That will be thanks to genetics.

IMO sports medicine and training methods have made incremental rather than quantum leaps since 2007. So I am not sure Pogacar won't start to fade before he turns 30? Being at a high level until his late 30s (winning races) is a low probability IMO. But again genetics means we are guessing until it eventuates.

 

[Berniece]

I think it'll be harder mentally than physically to keep riding at such a high level

 

[Peyroteo94]

Impossible to match Merckx's win totals. Will never be done by anyone, ever. Merckx won over 500 races (Almost 30% of all his starts were victories). The level of professional competition was so much less in his day than it is today. Also, the number of crashes and injuries are so much more frequent now. It is just plain harder to win a race.

If anyone is to surpass Merckx as the GOAT, pundits and cycling historians have to take those factors into account.

Procyclingstats say he won 279 races.

 

[SHAD0W93]

I always think of Andy Schleck in these discussions.

Andy was 22 when he came runner up at the 2007 Giro. So 3 months older than when Pogacar won the 2020 Tour.

Andy had the bad crash in 2012 though and never recovered from it. Then instead of riding on like Bernal or Froome he called it quits. Also mentally he wasn’t as strong as others, especially Roglic.

 

[Peyroteo94]

I always think of Andy Schleck in these discussions.

Andy was 22 when he came runner up at the 2007 Giro. So 3 months older than when Pogacar won the 2020 Tour.

Schleck retired in 2014 aged 29.

Roglic is 34 and came to the sport in 2012 - aged 23.

Merckx was 20 when he turned pro and retired aged 32. 13 years as a pro.

Generally riders were good into their mid 30s based upon a bell curve when they turned professional. They stayed good until an older age but turned professional later. The outlier is Valverde as I mentioned. That will be thanks to genetics.

IMO sports medicine and training methods have made incremental rather than quantum leaps since 2007. So I am not sure Pogacar won't start to fade before he turns 30? Being at a high level until his late 30s (winning races) is a low probability IMO. But again genetics means we are guessing until it eventuates.

Andy had a nasty crash in Dauphiné. Since there, he never came back because he simply didn't care anymore.

 

[Scarponi]

If he gets the Tour-Veulta double do you think he will ever go for the Giro-Veulta double to get the set? Or will the classics always stand in the way

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I always think of Andy Schleck in these discussions.

Andy was 22 when he came runner up at the 2007 Giro. So 3 months older than when Pogacar won the 2020 Tour.

Schleck retired in 2014 aged 29.

Roglic is 34 and came to the sport in 2012 - aged 23.

Merckx was 20 when he turned pro and retired aged 32. 13 years as a pro.

Generally riders were good into their mid 30s based upon a bell curve when they turned professional. They stayed good until an older age but turned professional later. The outlier is Valverde as I mentioned. That will be thanks to genetics.

IMO sports medicine and training methods have made incremental rather than quantum leaps since 2007. So I am not sure Pogacar won't start to fade before he turns 30? Being at a high level until his late 30s (winning races) is a low probability IMO. But again genetics means we are guessing until it eventuates.

Pogacar entered his prime in 2020 so this is his 5th season. Hardly anyone in cycling history had 10 seasons in his prime. For Pogacar his 10th will be at the age of 30/31. How good Pogacar can be after turning 30 yo is a good question IMO, no guarantees there. Not saying he won't be winning anymore but he can become considerably weaker than in his best seasons. Physical and mental decline after so many seasons at the top can't be neglected.

 

[Divergence]

I always think of Andy Schleck in these discussions.

Andy was 22 when he came runner up at the 2007 Giro. So 3 months older than when Pogacar won the 2020 Tour.

Schleck retired in 2014 aged 29.

Roglic is 34 and came to the sport in 2012 - aged 23.

Merckx was 20 when he turned pro and retired aged 32. 13 years as a pro.

Generally riders were good into their mid 30s based upon a bell curve when they turned professional. They stayed good until an older age but turned professional later. The outlier is Valverde as I mentioned. That will be thanks to genetics.

IMO sports medicine and training methods have made incremental rather than quantum leaps since 2007. So I am not sure Pogacar won't start to fade before he turns 30? Being at a high level until his late 30s (winning races) is a low probability IMO. But again genetics means we are guessing until it eventuates.

Wait, is an incremental leap larger than a quantum leap or vice versa? Are you thinking discrete vs continuous? By definition, the smallest change of (say energy level of an electron) is a "quantum leap" of one level, but you can also have a "quantum leap" over many levels so idk how that compares to incremental there.

On topic, I believe that people can perform at an extremely high level physiologically until the mid 40s. Sure, there are some things that change for the worse even starting at mid/late 20s but there are some things that improve with age.
I believe the most important factor is motivation. If an athlete is willing to train and sacrifice there is no reason why he should not be able to compete at the top until his mid 40s.

 

[stekelegel]

Physically humans are top around 25, after that a very slow decline sets in. Between 40-45 decline will accelerate. However experience can make humans more effective, negating slow physical decline or even making sporters ride better after 25: knowing your body, what training works, what nutrition works,...

Also some aspects decline faster then others. Explosiveness and sense of balance will go faster then durability.
But that's for normal humans.

Topsport puts an incredible strain on body and mind. Injuries can reduce body functions. And al humans cope differently.
So I dont think it's pure motivation. Some sporters just decline.

Also sacrifices can be harder to do when the results decline slightly, for those lucky enough to age gently . Without the records of TDF stages, what would have kept Marc Cavendish going? Doing all that effort for a few victories a year, where it used to be plenty? He would have retired earlier is my guess.

Will pog still ride if he is no longer a TDF winner but maybe can do a Vuelta or Giro? Will those records motivate him? Let's say he had wone 5 TDF, 2 Giro and 2 Vuelta, will a slight chance at another vuelta inspire him?
That's why in my opinion lot's of top sporters just dont find the motivation to continue

Luckily science and medicine have allowed sporters to compete longer these days, Ronaldo, Messi, Lebron, Jimmy Anderson all defying age, but besides Anderson, all of those have declined slowly.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Physically humans are top around 25, after that a very slow decline sets in. Between 40-45 decline will accelerate. However experience can make humans more effective, negating slow physical decline or even making sporters ride better after 25: knowing your body, what training works, what nutrition works,...

Also some aspects decline faster then others. Explosiveness and sense of balance will go faster then durability.
But that's for normal humans.

Topsport puts an incredible strain on body and mind. Injuries can reduce body functions. And al humans cope differently.
So I dont think it's pure motivation. Some sporters just decline.

Also sacrifices can be harder to do when the results decline slightly, for those lucky enough to age gently . Without the records of TDF stages, what would have kept Marc Cavendish going? Doing all that effort for a few victories a year, where it used to be plenty? He would have retired earlier is my guess.

Will pog still ride if he is no longer a TDF winner but maybe can do a Vuelta or Giro? Will those records motivate him? Let's say he had wone 5 TDF, 2 Giro and 2 Vuelta, will a slight chance at another vuelta inspire him?
That's why in my opinion lot's of top sporters just dont find the motivation to continue

Luckily science and medicine have allowed sporters to compete longer these days, Ronaldo, Messi, Lebron, Jimmy Anderson all defying age, but besides Anderson, all of those have declined slowly.

If he is that close of Merckx's record he will race for sure. Someday he will try to be the GOAT and he will make it if he continues this pattern of performances. In 2028 October he will be 30 years old and his palmares will be way richer than it is right now. He will probably be a 9 times GT winner, a 13 times monument winner and 2 times WC winner.

 

[tobydawq]

But I don't expect Pogacar to dominate cycling for 13-15 seasons. I can't remember a rider being the best for 15 years.

 

[scribers]

Pogacar entered his prime in 2020 so this is his 5th season. Hardly anyone in cycling history had 10 seasons in his prime. For Pogacar his 10th will be at the age of 30/31. How good Pogacar can be after turning 30 yo is a good question IMO, no guarantees there. Not saying he won't be winning anymore but he can become considerably weaker than in his best seasons. Physical and mental decline after so many seasons at the top can't be neglected.

How do we know he entered his prime at 20? He seems much stronger now than then. And it can’t all be because of the bald fraud, no?