Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[hq87]

Going to come back in a couple of days to see how well this post wil

I am 100% Convinced that Tadej knows exactly how big of a gap he can have comfortably and win this thing. I think he also know Jonas was last year the only one to really match and drop him when Pogi was dominating... Pogi's been testing things this whole time with the team and taking notes. given that, I fully believe Tadej is enjoying not being in the lead, giving his friends a chance to win stages, while just keeping that 2 minute gap going.
In short, he will dominate the rest of this week, and really the only thing that could hold him back is the heat... which he hates, but he also seems the thrive in. Look if you took Wout and Jonas together, they'd have a chance, but the way tadej was at the start of this this season, I dont think now is the time he's gonna start fading. its his last time to be in white, and he always does great in it. So here's to an awesome week.
But lets be real, Im really just waiting to see him cheering for Urska in the motorhome when this is all over.

ummmmm, this aged well.

 

[Extinction]

I think cycling is probably the least predictable sport in the long term that I know. Before this Tour I saw semi frequent discussion whether Pogacar could win all 3 GTs in a season. Now he's not even the best GT rider in the eyes of many anymore.

I'm not super sure about the predictive value of this year for other years, and I wonder if UAE underestimated the threat of Jumbo.

I don't think there have been many consecutive years with super similar relative levels of the same riders before. Arguably 3 at the most with Contador-Schleck from like 2009-2011 and maybe Froome-Quintana from 2013-2015.

If anything, this Tour proves how high the level is between Vingegaard and Pogacar, but until now it was logical to think the Slovenian wouldhave won his third Tour. It will be fascinating to see how their rivalry plays out from here, which could be very good for cycling.

 

[Escarabajo]

Pogacar got dropped conclusively both times Vingegaard and Jumbo went for it from further out.

I think he simply happened to be against a better rider even if he did not ride in the most optimal way.

In the second part you are almost agreeing with me. I believe that they are more even in strength that it looked IMHO.

 

[Peyroteo94]

For it is obvious. Put Almeida in the giro-tour double and Ayuso doing the Tour. Pogacar will win next Tour, I'm sure. This look a lot like Serena losing to Sharapova at wimbledon because she was overconfident but after that loss, she demolished Sharapova every single time.

 

[Escarabajo]

For it is obvious. Put Almeida in the giro-tour double and Ayuso doing the Tour. Pogacar will win next Tour, I'm sure. This look a lot like Serena losing to Sharapova at wimbledon because she was overconfident but after that loss, she demolished Sharapova every single time.

The big difference being the team!

 

[Gigs_98]

I think cycling is probably the least predictable sport in the long term that I know. Before this Tour I saw semi frequent discussion whether Pogacar could win all 3 GTs in a season. Now he's not even the best GT rider in the eyes of many anymore.

I'm not super sure about the predictive value of this year for other years, and I wonder if UAE underestimated the threat of Jumbo.

I don't think there have been many consecutive years with super similar relative levels of the same riders before. Arguably 3 at the most with Contador-Schleck from like 2009-2011 and maybe Froome-Quintana from 2013-2015.

100% agree and while I don't think I could come up with any better examples, even the ones you are making really didn't have that similar of a level over 3 years.

Contador was way better than Schleck in 2009, they were almost equal in 2010 and while Schleck might have only been better in the 2011 Tour because Contador had the Giro in his legs, he wasn't even able to beat Cadel Evans that year.

Froome meanwhile was clearly superior in 2013, we didn't really have a comparison in 2014 and then they were pretty equal in 2015. I'd honestly take 2016 into consideration too although Quintana was nowhere near Froome in that Tour, just because he beat him a month later at the Vuelta.

But the key takeaway is, even in those rivalries there was at best one year where they were equally matched. I mean if you consider something like 2009 and 2013 you would have to consider 2021 as a level of similar performance for Pog-Vingo as well. And to be honest in 2010 and 2015 I was absolutely convinced the respective rivalries would go on for some time when in fact their peak had just passed.

You know, people on this forum have often (and rightfully) joked about a post I made before the 2020 Tour where I announced that Pogacar was overrated and in fact not the next big thing. My main point at the time was that people were calling young gc contenders the next Indurain/Armstrong/Froome way too fast and that the guys who actually go on to dominate are never the hyped up youngsters but some guy who comes out of nowhere. My examples for two such riders were Bernal (who at the time was even higher rated than Pog) and Pogacar and while I was spot on about former, I wasn't about the latter. That being said, the reality is, the jury for just how wrong I was about Pogacar is honestly still out, and Vingegaard might be the guy coming out of nowhere I was thinking about. I certainly did underestimate Pogacar but my prediction that he won't be the next gt dominator could still become true because, as you said, in cycling one only ever knows who dominates after he has dominated and never before.

 

[dutchdescent]

Time for Pogi to just focus on the classics from now on. JV to dominate next years

 

[DoYouEvenRideBruh]

There's also the fact that luck plays a bigger role in cycling than in most other sports. GTs are long, with lots of variables beyond anyone's control. Routes change and suit different riders every time.

I may be out of my depth here, but I don't think any tennis player has ever crashed out of Wimbledon (right?).

 

[KZD]

Time for Pogi to just focus on the classics from now on. JV to dominate next years

Nonsense, he will still likely be the second strongest rider in the Tour and UAE will get stronger with people like Almeida or Ayuso

 

[Extinction]

100% agree and while I don't think I could come up with any better examples, even the ones you are making really didn't have that similar of a level over 3 years.

Contador was way better than Schleck in 2009, they were almost equal in 2010 and while Schleck might have only been better in the 2011 Tour because Contador had the Giro in his legs, he wasn't even able to beat Cadel Evans that year.

Froome meanwhile was clearly superior in 2013, we didn't really have a comparison in 2014 and then they were pretty equal in 2015. I'd honestly take 2016 into consideration too although Quintana was nowhere near Froome in that Tour, just because he beat him a month later at the Vuelta.

But the key takeaway is, even in those rivalries there was at best one year where they were equally matched. I mean if you consider something like 2009 and 2013 you would have to consider 2021 as a level of similar performance for Pog-Vingo as well. And to be honest in 2010 and 2015 I was absolutely convinced the respective rivalries would go on for some time when in fact their peak had just passed.

You know, people on this forum have often (and rightfully) joked about a post I made before the 2020 Tour where I announced that Pogacar was overrated and in fact not the next big thing. My main point at the time was that people were calling young gc contenders the next Indurain/Armstrong/Froome way too fast and that the guys who actually go on to dominate are never the hyped up youngsters but some guy who comes out of nowhere. My examples for two such riders were Bernal (who at the time was even higher rated than Pog) and Pogacar and while I was spot on about former, I wasn't about the latter. That being said, the reality is, the jury for just how wrong I was about Pogacar is honestly still out, and Vingegaard might be the guy coming out of nowhere I was thinking about. I certainly did underestimate Pogacar but my prediction that he won't be the next gt dominator could still become true because, as you said, in cycling one only ever knows who dominates after he has dominated and never before.

Pog is a different Beast, because he didn't just win the Tour, but numerous other races of noteworthy merit. He was simply a victim of his team, bad tactics on a crucial day and a rival as strong as him. He will be back. His story doesn't end here.

 

[Gigs_98]

Pog is a different Beast, because he didn't just win the Tour, but numerous other races of noteworthy merit. He was simply a victim of his team, bad tactics on a crucial day and a rival as strong as him. He will be back. His story doesn't end here.

Glad Valverde now has his Tour podium out of the way so Movistar can finally focus 100% on winning. Quintana is constantly improving and with the team entirely behind him I just don't see Froome beating him next year.

 

[Red Rick]

One other low key takeaway is that Pogs descending was a lot less impressive than I thought before.

 

[roundabout]

Glad Valverde now has his Tour podium out of the way so Movistar can finally focus 100% on winning. Quintana is constantly improving and with the team entirely behind him I just don't see Froome beating him next year.

Pogacar Vuelta win vs Vingegaard confirmed

 

[roundabout]

One other low key takeaway is that Pogs descending was a lot less impressive than I thought before.

was there anything previously that suggested he was a super descender?

He got caught by Masnada in Lombardia, lost time to the break and people behind on LGB, lost time down Carpegna.

I honestly can't remember one downhill that made me genuinely think that this guy is super good.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

One other low key takeaway is that Pogs descending was a lot less impressive than I thought before.

Could be because he’s attacking so much early in stages and exhausting himself, reducing his descending abilities. Or he’s just not so good right now.

 

[Red Rick]

was there anything previously that suggested he was a super descender?

He got caught by Masnada in Lombardia, lost time to the break and people behind on LGB, lost time down Carpegna.

I honestly can't remember one downhill that made me genuinely think that this guy is super good.

His handling on flats and in the peloton is good, and I think many thought Vingegaard was probably a weaker descender based on Ventoux and Lombardia last year.

 

[ice&fire]

Time for Pogi to just focus on the classics from now on. JV to dominate next years

He finished 4th at Flanders where he only had to deal with MvdP. I'd guess he can't get a top 10 if you add WVA to the equation.

 

[Miha81]

So what now? Ruining Rogla's Vuelta fun?

 

[Krzysztof_O]

So what now? Ruining Rogla's Vuelta fun?

Pog will be pretty gassed after the Tour. Not sure if he takes part in the Vuelta but he may be eager to avenge his Tour defeat there.

 

[roundabout]

His handling on flats and in the peloton is good, and I think many thought Vingegaard was probably a weaker descender based on Ventoux and Lombardia last year.

Ventoux was a power descent with a lot of pedaling despite the speed so it was not surprising that a group of 3(IIRC) working well together was faster.

Lombardia I honestly don't remember. Could be a question of form though, as a rider in better form uphill also descends better.

 

[Extinction]

One other low key takeaway is that Pogs descending was a lot less impressive than I thought before.

Nah, he's good. It was the pressure and frustration that got to him.

 

[Miha81]

Pog will be pretty gassed after the Tour. Not sure if he takes part in the Vuelta but he may be eager to avenge his Tour defeat there.

I know. I was joking. Kinda hope he takes some break and come back even stronger.

I like Rogla a lot and wish him his 4th Vuelta.

 

[YavorD]

I think Pog won more fans in the last week than in the last 2 years in total.
Gave us a good show, however, I think would win this Tour if not for stage 11.

I still find hard to understand why did he follow Roglic. He was already 3 minutes behind and looking weaker almost constantly, while in the same time Jonas Rasmussen was looking great even in ala Pogacar climb.

However, I think next year he will have a much better overall team, as they had a massive bad luck this year. Trentin was supposed to start - didn't - and his replacement was useless. And they lost 4
im other guys.

P.s. To me Pogacar is a lot closer to Vingo, mountains wise, than this Tour suggests.

 

[jmdirt]

Way to battle today TP!

 

[Miha81]

I think Pog won more fans in the last week than in the last 2 years in total.
Gave us a good show, however, I think would win this Tour if not for stage 11.

I still find hard to understand why did he follow Roglic. He was already 3 minutes behind and looking weaker almost constantly, while in the same time Jonas Rasmussen was looking great even in ala Pogacar climb.

However, I think next year he will have a much better overall team, as they had a massive bad luck this year. Trentin was supposed to start - didn't - and his replacement was useless. And they lost 4
im other guys.

P.s. To me Pogacar is a lot closer to Vingo, mountains wise, than this Tour suggests.

Maybe he was simply overconfident. But he was even before 11th stage. Burning energy on every corner. I suspect he needed bonus seconds since team was rubbish.

Vingo was bailed out by WVA on cobbles stage as difference prior stage 11 could be much higher. After stage 11 tour was his to loose. Taking nothing away from him but Pogi had to attack similar form rider and much stronger team. That meant that he simply burned himself out.

I had a feeling that UAE went all in on stage 17 and kinda expected counterpunch today.

Really hope Pogi stays motivated and try to win ITT.