Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[Krzysztof_O]

Without the crash I thought Pog could surprise many that are writing him off at the Tour. The guy blew himself up showboating and responding to two very strong and almost equal riders, had majority of his team gone and performing sporadically, and had the Covid rumors. With the crash it’s hard to say but if able to put weight on his hand he should finish on the podium.

There is an abyss between Vinge and other guys so even 80% Pog can podium the Tour. The question is: can he beat Vinge?

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

The "Vrum vrum" Stava upload from Sierra Nevada of the other day (was it this Tuesdag?) backed up by stories (ok 2nd hand stories, but anyway) that the UAE support guys had days on shift pulling, while Pogi going full monty and KOM mode every day, to me indicates an indeed healthy state. Hope for the best.

 

[SHAD0W93]

There is an abyss between Vinge and other guys so even 80% Pog can podium the Tour. The question is: can he beat Vinge?

But if Pog can’t put weight on his hand and it ruins his prep that abyss gets smaller for him.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

But if Pog can’t put weight on his hand and it ruins his prep that abyss gets smaller for him.

If it's still that bad he should focus on Vuelta then. I think they will know what his level is before the Tour and in case of serious doubts they will not take him.

 

[Peyroteo94]

But if Pog can’t put weight on his hand and it ruins his prep that abyss gets smaller for him.

We are talking about Pogacar. This kid has a serious shot to become an all time great when he retires so you really think he cares about a podium? If he feels he can't beat Vingegaard, he will not race the Tour.

 

[Sciatic]

We are talking about Pogacar. This kid has a serious shot to become an all time great when he retires so you really think he cares about a podium? If he feels he can't beat Vingegaard, he will not race the Tour.

This suggestion seems to be seeping into several different rider threads lately—the idea that if they can’t win it they should skip it. Seems strange to me because unless they are totally sick/incapacitated, they wont really know if they “can’t win” until a race is underway. But more to the point, these guys (especially when I look at someone like Pogacar) are bike racers—so they’ll want to go race if they can.

 

[Cookster15]

We are talking about Pogacar. This kid has a serious shot to become an all time great when he retires so you really think he cares about a podium? If he feels he can't beat Vingegaard, he will not race the Tour.

Okay, I’ll put my hand up and admit I must have become a Pogacar fan because I like this comment 👍

I hope you are right. If you are it means if he does start the tour then he believes he can win the tour and the fisherman is on notice.

 

[Cookster15]

In a way I tend to agree with @Andy schleck that his climbing on longer ascents seems to have plateaued since 2020. OTOH he's progressed significantly in one-day races since then.

What sample size are we drawing this conclusion from? Primarily the 2022 TdF - Granon and Hautacam. The jury is still out. And at only 24 I’d be surprised if he’s reached his peak already.

 

[Miha81]

Don't really think you want rain during your altitude camp. Especially not in high altitude..

I know but he got it anyway. Made a joke about it

 

[Krzysztof_O]

What sample size are we drawing this conclusion from? Primarily the 2022 TdF - Granon and Hautacam. The jury is still out. And at only 24 I’d be surprised if he’s reached his peak already.

Not really. I'm judging by his best climbing performances. He hasn't shown anything above Peyresourde 2020, PDBF 2020 or LGB 2021 since then (and I'm talking about any race, not just the Tour). This year at PN his climbing was very strong but not better than last year's Tirreno mountain stage (Carpegna was quite a bazooka, VAM of 1900 m/h in a temperature of ZERO is not easy to perform and demolished his rivals). Obviously that doesn't mean he can't progress (esp. on longer 30+ min climbs, on those shorter he's likely hit his ceilling) but those are observations I've had.

 

[Extinction]

Not really. I'm judging by his best climbing performances. He hasn't shown anything above Peyresourde 2020, PDBF 2020 or LGB 2021 since then (and I'm talking about any race, not just the Tour). This year at PN his climbing was very strong but not better than last year's Tirreno mountain stage (Carpegna was quite a bazooka, VAM of 1900 m/h in a temperature of ZERO is not easy to perform and demolished his rivals). Obviously that doesn't mean he can't progress (esp. on longer 30+ min climbs, on those shorter he's likely hit his ceilling) but those are observations I've had.

And Cancellara said he's become more of a classics rider.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

And Cancellara said he's become more of a classics rider.

He's become a classics monster to be precise.

 

[Extinction]

He's become a classics monster to be precise.

I've always thought that versitality comes at the expense of excelling above the rest in one discipline. It's unlikely you can conquer the Murs of Flanders and the Alpine Cols of France with the same dominance. The excellence in one diminishes that of the other. Mind you, I'm talking about being the very best in given disciplines. If it weren't for a Vingeggard, Pog could probably be the very best in multiple facets of cycling (bar the TT), but with the Dane in top form on the big cols at this point the Slovenian has probably met his match. I'm curious to see if my suspicion proves to be true.

 

[Nick2413]

We are talking about Pogacar. This kid has a serious shot to become an all time great when he retires so you really think he cares about a podium? If he feels he can't beat Vingegaard, he will not race the Tour.

I honestly don’t get that vibe from him at all. Sure he feels he can beat him, but he’s a racer and has a track record of going all in on races when not the favorite. He wants to be there and go up against the best. It helps when you’re as good as him though.

 

[Rob5091]

I would guess that if Pogacar is not 100% he'll still do the Tour - he seemingly wants to ride and the team will not stop him.

 

[Elos Anjos]

And Cancellara said he's become more of a classics rider.

You haven't properly read the article. Cancellara didn't say that to become a classics rider, Pogi had to stop being a GT rider.

I'm always boggled why people keep assigning Cancellara or former riders a special gift in cycling analysis. There's no logical relation whatsoever between being a good rider and a good analyst. So let's not add noise into, that, shall we?

 

[Panda Claws]

You haven't properly read the article. Cancellara didn't say that to become a classics rider, Pogi had to stop being a GT rider.

I'm always boggled why people keep assigning Cancellara or former riders a special gift in cycling analysis. There's no logical relation whatsoever between being a good rider and a good analyst. So let's not add noise into, that, shall we?

Meh he does definitely favor Vingegaard as a GT Rider. I agree that his column is not clear on this (https://www.cyclingnews.com/feature...eneration-and-pogacars-paris-roubaix-chances/) but in an interview with Belgian press taken around the same time (https://archive.is/n2SD4) he said the following:

Is Pogacar niet simpelweg de beste renner van allemaal?​

“Ik zie hem niet meer als een renner voor de grote rondes. Ja, hij heeft al twee keer de Tour gewonnen, maar hij ziet af op lange, snikhete klimmen en verschilt daarin van Vingegaard. Pogacar rendeert beter in rondes van een week en in klassiekers. Hij koerst heel offensief, heel spectaculair, net als Van der Poel. Pogacar zal moeten kiezen waar hij op focust.”

Quick Translation:
Isn't Pogacar simply the best rider of them all?
I don't regard him as a GT rider anymore. Yes, he's already won the Tour twice, but he suffers on long, hot climbs and in that regard he differs from Vingegaard. Pogacar performs better in one-week stage races and one-day races. He races very aggressively, very spectacularly, just like Van der Poel. Pogacar will have to choose where he puts his focus.

I agree with the rest of your post though overall. There are definitely insights ex-pro's have to offer but they can often be just as biased/wrong as well.

 

[gunara]

I'm not that excited about the Tour GC this year, Vinge looks more and more like a climbing messiah, while Pog has lots to fix, and others are mere mortals.

Hope next year everyone that matters will come healthy for the Tour. Imagine a potential all-time history maker like Pog and a generational supertalent like Remco both playing underdogs. When was the last time it's that mouth-watering?

It's cycling, though, where promises are made to be broken.

 

[Extinction]

You haven't properly read the article. Cancellara didn't say that to become a classics rider, Pogi had to stop being a GT rider.

I'm always boggled why people keep assigning Cancellara or former riders a special gift in cycling analysis. There's no logical relation whatsoever between being a good rider and a good analyst. So let's not add noise into, that, shall we?

Wrong! Mine was in reference to something he said after Flanders. At least if you want to correct, make sure you've got your facts straight. Cancellara said of Pog "for me he's more of a classics rider" now. The rest is drivel, as it was just quoting something someone actually said, not placing value in it. A curiosity, a possibility, a rumination, chewing the cud, a wild assertion or maybe not, nothing more.

 

[ppanther92]

The whole team is one step above. Be afraid...

The took a well needed step, agreed. The past 3 years JV surely was way above UAE in the Tour. Way above. The only stage Vingegaard could have realistically lost this last year was the Roubaix one. But the team (especially WvA) saved it. Actually the gap in the end was so narrow on that stage that I would even say Pogacar was the "loser" here with having had to put in a huge effort.

 

[ppanther92]

Without the crash I thought Pog could surprise many that are writing him off at the Tour. The guy blew himself up showboating and responding to two very strong and almost equal riders, had majority of his team gone and performing sporadically, and had the Covid rumors. With the crash it’s hard to say but if able to put weight on his hand he should finish on the podium.

I think he will be the second strongest. Too far above the two seem over the rest. But I guess that will feel like a defeat to Pogacar.

 

[ppanther92]

I'm not that excited about the Tour GC this year, Vinge looks more and more like a climbing messiah, while Pog has lots to fix, and others are mere mortals.

Hope next year everyone that matters will come healthy for the Tour. Imagine a potential all-time history maker like Pog and a generational supertalent like Remco both playing underdogs. When was the last time it's that mouth-watering?

It's cycling, though, where promises are made to be broken.

I really hope we have Vingegaard, Pogacar and Evenepoel at their absolute best next year. Would be awesome. But hurt by 2014, I don't believe in nice things at the Tour anymore...

 

[Oldermanish]

There is an abyss between Vinge and other guys so even 80% Pog can podium the Tour. The question is: can he beat Vinge?

Jonas' climbing today on Dauphine Stage 7 suggests he still can go harder. Realistically today's stage was not equal to a latter Tour stage simply because the competition hasn't pressed that deeply. I would expect it to be much harder and JV may want to make that effort on earlier stages to tax Pogacar to find out what his tipping point could be. When Vingegaard gets a gap and settles into a tempo there may be no retrieving him.

 

[Lorzenz08]

There is an abyss between Vinge and other guys so even 80% Pog can podium the Tour. The question is: can he beat Vinge?

Let me put it this way, Vingegaard seems way too strong right now to be dropped in his favorite field. I just don't see anyone including Pog able to take him time in long climbs.

So unless accident, a 100% Pog can only count on the smaller climbs to hurt Vingegaard. On the long climbs I think his best hope is to be able to follow Vingegaard.

 

[Peyroteo94]

He doesn't need to drop Vingegaard. He just needs to hang on in the climbs. This is the hard task right now.