Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[geisterhome]

That is the thing. People say Pog dropped because he isn't in super shape and/or his wrist is hurting him and/or that he might have had a stomach bug during stage 3 and 4 (Yeah, Chris Horner actually speculated about this). Disregard Vingegaards exceptional performance for a moment and just focus on Pog relative other contenders: he dropped every other GC-contender with 23s or more in less than 3k. Have we seen Pog do much better than this many times before? Don't think so. The thing that might indicate that his form isn't 100 % is that he didn't drop Kuss. But, we know that Kuss can be incredibly strong on steep gradients when he is in top shape.

The presumption is that Pog would have followed Vingegaard if he was in top shape and his wrist didn't hurt.
I'm not sure about that. I think Vingegaard might just be stronger than Pog, especially on a bit longer steeper sections where weight becomes a factor.

I think he would normally not be caught by a group of Yates and Gaudu tho. The times he attacked from further out he managed to stay away no matter what the chasers were trying. And has Kuss ever managed to stay with Pogacar when he went all out? Unless Kuss has found another level I don't think he is capable of that, especially cos this was a rather short all out effort.

 

[Rackham]

Agreed! That's also why I'm not quite comfortable with the notion that Pogs sprinting abilities come at the expense of his climbing. He climbs better (much better) than the whole world of cycling, except one guy. Imo Pog IS a grand tour beast who amazingly is able to beat the classic specialists and not the other way round. Of course all our opinions tend to hinge on few data points, but look at Thomas being almost best in the giro and pog and vinge almost competing in a different sport than him last year. That vinge can one-up pog is crazy stuff, but doesn't put pogs climbing/GT-ability among the mortals.

Yesterday was a bad day for Pogačar, no doubt. The fact he couldn't gap Kuss on a climb like Marie Blanque says a lot. It can be for a number of reasons (pre-Tour injury namely but on such a short effort so early in the Tour it's a concern, especially as his injury was not about his legs either) but there's that unmistakable truth now that Vingegaard drops Pog on climbs. Again & again (a fact I ignored for quite a while, i.e. Ventoux 2021 had its reasons, as did Granon, as did Hautacam... but yesterday was too much).

He needs to resolve this pretty fast (& also gap guys like Hindley & the rest), or else this Tour could go sour. I'm hoping for a Pog rebound today & some good climbing legs. Otherwise the TdF will have zero suspense whatsoever.

 

[CyclistAbi]

And what if Jai ends up winning overall. Then some theories are in a bit of a pickle? Al in all it's premature to declare winners of this years edition.

 

[Trofonios]

I think he would normally not be caught by a group of Yates and Gaudu tho. The times he attacked from further out he managed to stay away no matter what the chasers were trying. And has Kuss ever managed to stay with Pogacar when he went all out? Unless Kuss has found another level I don't think he is capable of that, especially cos this was a rather short all out effort.

I see your point and there might be something to it. However, I do think Kuss was exceptionally strong yesterday: he pulled in front for some time and was still able to distance Gaudu, Yates, et al with more than 20s on the climb.

 

[Rackham]

And what if Jai ends up winning overall. Then some theories are in a bit of a pickle? Al in all it's premature to declare winners of this years edition.

I would love to see it. But visual impressions are what they are, i.e. Vingegaard climbed with a finger in his nose. He then obliterated the flat as well (which hurt Pogačar even more).

So Hindley is great, I do like him as a rider, but... it is what it is.

 

[Trofonios]

Yesterday was a bad day for Pogačar, no doubt. The fact he couldn't gap Kuss on a climb like Marie Blanque says a lot. It can be for a number of reasons (pre-Tour injury namely but on such a short effort so early in the Tour it's a concern, especially as his injury was not about his legs either) but there's that unmistakable truth now that Vingegaard drops Pog on climbs. Again & again (a fact I ignored for quite a while, i.e. Ventoux 2021 had its reasons, as did Granon, as did Hautacam... but yesterday was too much).

He needs to resolve this pretty fast (& also gap guys like Hindley & the rest), or else this Tour could go sour. I'm hoping for a Pog rebound today & some good climbing legs. Otherwise the TdF will have zero suspense whatsoever.

Vingegaard was superior yesterday and that won't change over night. I think Pog should just try to follow Vingegaard today and also save his teammates who worked hard yesterday. He should hope his legs gets better the longer the tour goes and then try to go on the attack in the second and third week. Going crazy today could backfire badly I think.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I agree, even when Vingegaard just started his attack, it seemed like Pogacar was already near the red, he barely responded lol

Pogacar did admit he was on the limit when Sepp Kuss started pulling.

 

[Bolder]

I think he would normally not be caught by a group of Yates and Gaudu tho. The times he attacked from further out he managed to stay away no matter what the chasers were trying. And has Kuss ever managed to stay with Pogacar when he went all out? Unless Kuss has found another level I don't think he is capable of that, especially cos this was a rather short all out effort.

It looked to me that Pog was not feeling his best and made a decision to let the Yates group catch up. They held the deficit at around 1 minute -- with a big stage coming up today plus Puy de Dome, the smart move is not to spend any more energy than necessary. As for Kuss, he may have been on the tail end of his Giro peak shape, but one thing that Kuss does better than a lot of climbing domestiques is that he drops back while he still has a bit in the tank, so I think he is certainly capable of staying with Pog at the end of a single hard effort in a single stage.

I wouldn't write him off just yet -- the very hard first 9 stages were ideal for Vingegaard, who was perfectly prepared, but not for Pog after his wrist injury. He may -- emphasize MAY -- be able to ride into better shape in the next week or so and if he can just stick with Vingegaard he can fight back on Loze or maybe even the Joux Plane. If he's dropped again today it's likely game over, or he'll have to launch a Landis raid in the Alps...

 

[CyclistAbi]

I would love to see it. But visual impressions are what they are, i.e. Vingegaard climbed with a finger in his nose. He then obliterated the flat as well (which hurt Pogačar even more).

So Hindley is great, I do like him as a rider, but... it is what it is.

Actually Hindley managed to cope well on the flat. So i assume ITT shouldn't be that big of an issue. Considering the profile. His characteristic are such that i don't see him dropping easily when climbing. So maybe he is a bit vulnerable at descending. Or maybe he and his team will spent too much energy defending. Obviously i still feel that Pogi and Jonas have the edge. But it's intriguing. That is the position Hindley got himself into.

 

[CyclistAbi]

So stage 1 an 2 i have them at Pogi was better, stage 5 Jonas was better and Jai has beat them both. Now lets see what stage 6 will reveal. Maybe Landa? We'll see.

 

[IndurainsTdF1994]

Maybe stop *** around? You don't want to be a central feature of a netflix show - as a loser (again).

https://twitter.com/x/status/1676518780913225731

 

[Blobs]

We thought that last year as well and he indeed did try but JV and Vingegaard were absolutely unphased.

True, but last year I think he was still hoping to crack Vingegaard mano a mano. At least until after Hautacam. This year he's gonna need to try something different for more than two weeks. Even if he doesn't succeed and JV remain in control, it's bound to be interesting. At least much more so than the US Postal/Sky days.

 

[laarsland]

Maybe stop *** around? You don't want to be a central feature of a netflix show - as a loser (again).

https://twitter.com/x/status/1676518780913225731

Yeah God forbid he lets himself be himself and goof around a bit. Sure didn't work in classics season.

 

[Rob5091]

Interesting that Horner pointed out UAE sitting right at the back on stages 3 &4 and wondering if Pogacar had a possible stomach problems (or just lack of form).

 

[Salvarani]

Interesting that Horner pointed out UAE sitting right at the back on stages 3 &4 and wondering if Pogacar had a possible stomach problems (or just lack of form).

Who knows.

Maybe they were also just being careful, because of his wrist. Not fighting for position at the front with the sprinters tackling and elbowing each other.

 

[Trofonios]

So stage 1 an 2 i have them at Pogi was better, stage 5 Jonas was better and Jai has beat them both. Now lets see what stage 6 will reveal. Maybe Landa? We'll see.

Honestly, how can one say that Pog was better than Vingegaard on stage 1 and 2? Did he distance Vingegaard? Did Vingegaard looked to be in trouble? He was better in the sense the he finished off the stages better, but that Pog has a better sprint was nothing new.

 

[Netserk]

Still kind of hard to make any comparisons if it doesn't account for wind. VAM might be much lower if you have a head wind but that doesn't mean your actual W/kg was lower, if I understand correctly? Better than nothing of course since we never get access to the actual numbers. Sometimes I think it's silly when guys like LR make these claims like "Remco did x W/kg" when he might be a couple of kgs lighter or heavier, which makes a big difference in these calculations.

The point is to assess the level of the performance (what would it take for a standard rider to do the same), not guess what his powermeter says. So his weight is irrelevant.

 

[Lorzenz08]

Tbh he did have a rubbish preparation. He had serious training only since the last 3 weeks.

While he had coffee rides with his girlfriend, Vingo was probably already dropping 7wk training sessions.

IMO the UAE team only hoped Vingo wouldnt attack so hard in the first week, and that Pogie would be in better form in the following weeks, plus some luck.

 

[Trofonios]

Interesting that Horner pointed out UAE sitting right at the back on stages 3 &4 and wondering if Pogacar had a possible stomach problems (or just lack of form).

I think Horner reads in too much into that. Stomach bug? Going by his demeanor Pog looked happy after both stages, posing for the camera with Jasper for example.

They were sprint stages and a chance for UAE to rest Berg and Laengen foremost after the first two hard stages. Then I don't think Berg, Laengen et al are all that comfortable being in front fighting for position with teams with sprinters in the end of the stages.

 

[IndurainsTdF1994]

Yeah God forbid he lets himself be himself and goof around a bit. Sure didn't work in classics season.

I haven't noticed too much clowning around during the classics season - either I was inattentive or there wasn't as much of it. Don't get me wrong - I definitely like having a clown around.

 

[Elos Anjos]

Pogi fans like myself seemed driven into a corner called "excuses" faced with the fact that Vingo has dropped him again.

In the 2022 Tour it was obvious that he had some hubris that rebounded into his legs and performance. And now one can say that he didn't have the best of preparations - he didn't and that it was perhaps risky to join the Tour like that.

But just for the sake of the argument I would like to state that although there are good reasons to say that this is not the best Pogi, it's becoming more and more thin the argument that an in form Pogi can deal with Vingo.

 

[Lorzenz08]

Pogi fans like myself seemed driven into a corner called "excuses" faced with the fact that Vingo has dropped him again.

In the 2022 Tour it was obvious that he had some hubris that rebounded into his legs and performance. And now one can say that he didn't have the best of preparations - he didn't and that it was perhaps risky to join the Tour like that.

But just for the sake of the argument I would like to state that although there are good reasons to say that this is not the best Pogi, it's becoming more and more thin the argument that an in form Pogi can deal with Vingo.

For me, it's not that much that Vingo is a better climber than Pog that bother me. It's just the way he's not even a factor anymore, and he seems ok with that. It seems like winning 4 secs bonus sprint is enough for him.

Hopefully, it changes in the coming days, and weeks. But like if he keeps being okay with his mediocre performances (relative to his potential), then it's really disappointing.

 

[Blobs]

Pogi fans like myself seemed driven into a corner called "excuses" faced with the fact that Vingo has dropped him again.

In the 2022 Tour it was obvious that he had some hubris that rebounded into his legs and performance. And now one can say that he didn't have the best of preparations - he didn't and that it was perhaps risky to join the Tour like that.

But just for the sake of the argument I would like to state that although there are good reasons to say that this is not the best Pogi, it's becoming more and more thin the argument that an in form Pogi can deal with Vingo.

Yes, there seems to be a very slow "coming to terms" with it. I already thought it was strange that people wouldn't acknowledge it after Ventoux, as there weren't really any excuses back then. I think, because of certain circumstances, that Pogacar was a bit overrated in GT context. He is an amazing rider, but was seen as some kind of god. I'm not sure he even would have won in 21, had Roglic and Jonas not crashed. Imagine peak Roglic with a super domestique like Jonas. Would have been a mouthful.

 

[Blobs]

For me, it's not that much that Vingo is a better climber than Pog that bother me. It's just the way he's not even a factor anymore, and he seems ok with that. It seems like winning 4 secs bonus sprint is enough for him.

Hopefully, it changes in the coming days, and weeks. But like if he keeps being okay with his mediocre performances (relative to his potential), then it's really disappointing.

What could he have done differently so far? I'm sure he'll try all kinds of things for the rest of the race, but I don't see what he could have done much differently in the first 5 stages.

 

[Elos Anjos]

Yes, there seems to be a very slow "coming to terms" with it. I already thought it was strange that people wouldn't acknowledge it after Ventoux, as there weren't really any excuses back then. I think, because of certain circumstances, that Pogacar was a bit overrated in GT context. He is an amazing rider, but was seen as some kind of god. I'm not sure he even would have won in 21, had Roglic and Jonas not crashed. Imagine peak Roglic with a super domestique like Jonas. Would have been a mouthful.

Pogacar is not overrated as a GT rider. Let's not make pointless statements. Just because someone is climbing better than him doesn't make his achievements a fluke.